22 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

yes, and i see a possibull cup and handle on gold and gld and divergences on hui . thinking of putting on my trading cap. gold is acting very strong . dharma

dharma

From the FWIW department. I think that gold, the metal itself, will hold up relative to the mining and broad market stocks when a decline takes place. An exception maybe CEF. Gold may just correct moderately and move sideways until we enter the time cycle for the next advance.

Thanks for keeping us updated.

Best to you.

Edited by johngeorge, 05 October 2009 - 08:20 AM.

[dharma]

if you are wondering why its not wise to short a bull market, here is your proof. poof new forever highs. now,it doesnt have to happen like this, but in the last bull market in gold , the longer gold stayed @high # the higher the miners went. lets see if both can occur. surprises will be on the upside. dharma

[dharma]

"This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to their altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy... But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them. "It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last." Ludwig von Mises dharma

[dougie]

dharma: i am seeing some negative divergences in the miners here esp. juniors that worry you?

[dharma]

dharma: i am seeing some negative divergences in the miners here esp. juniors
that worry you?

it all worries me but i stick w/my strategy. there will be corrections that's a fact. butt, gold will make higher highs sooner or later.
Gold timers' wall of worry
Commentary: Average gold timer almost completely out of the market
http://www.marketwat...-06?siteid=nbkh
dharma

Edited by dharma, 06 October 2009 - 01:43 PM.

[dharma]

The demise of the dollar

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

By Robert Fisk

Tuesday, 6 October 2009

*
Dollar Hits Low For Year
Lost Over 53% of Value Since 80sLearn 3 Ways to Profit as $ Falls
www.worldcurrencywatch.com

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

http://www.independe...ar-1798175.html
dharma

[dharma]

doesnt look to me like this up move is finished! and there are guys on ff who are looking to short this market. keep in mind that the commercials are the big shorts and they have been increasing their short positions for the duration of this bull market. in the bull of the 70s the arabs were the hoarders of physical today, there are many nations looking to increase their gold reserves. so, we have the commercials on one side and china, india, etc on the other side. the commercials are going to suffer huge losses . they play in paper and the other guys play in physical the scramble to make the paper into physical will be starting soon pay up. ps. i still there is a correction in store for this market. but, i no longer think it will be as deep as i once thought. call me stubborn , but i still think the miners will offer great returns dharma

[dharma]

seems everyone is looking for a top! what does that tell you? looking @the daily and weekly charts of gold, i see powerful patterns indicating higher prices. not tomorrow, necessarily but over time look @the dollar chart-since 01 the dollar is in a major down trend. currencies stay in trends for very long periods of time. check long term charts deficits are increasing , giving juice to the trend. keeping money in assets is the way to go. yes, there will be corrections , but the trend will carry gold to new highs and the dollar to new lows "a trend in motion will continue until it actually stops"-aristotle dharma

[dharma]

next week is shaping up for the long awaited correction. dharma

[dharma]

next week is shaping up for the long awaited correction.
dharma

there are now daily and weekly divergences in xau/hui /gold
i have a turn the 13-16
this should be led by the broads
if we hold 1k and it is oversold and diverging
i will buy more
dharma