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Added IT Shorts Today


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#1 Cirrus

Cirrus

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Posted 15 October 2009 - 10:43 AM

Added shorts in XRT, SHLD, still short homebuilder basket, added some QQQQ Dec puts and will add some XLE Dec puts at close for a hedge. Still holding several longs...some of which I've had core positions since March. Also, stil holding a gold basket but I want to add weakness with that one. I've sold virtually all 'swing' long positions but don't have a problem adding or rebuying if I'm wrong and the market strengthens. This is the third straight monthly OPEX pop and I think the market is weak into Nov OPEX...maybe. I have the NDX weekly right at .628 Fib hard resistance. I have the SPX nearing 1120ish with is a .5 Fib retrace. I think SPX outperforms NDX into Q1 2010. I'm still holding LT positions in MHLD, DFT, BXI.v, EDD and a few Chinese small/mid caps. My core energy basket still has BEXP (favorite), KOG, CLR, WLL and 4 or 5 MLPs I've had since early this year. PM basket is GORO (cost in low 4s), RBY, RBI.to, UXG, ANV, NSU and now PAAS....looking at some others. FWIW I've been touting GORO, DFT, MHLD and BXI.v here for months with TA and fundamental reasons for ownership. Some have more than tripled. I've also posted BEXP. My recent trimming and shorting is more in line with my opinion of declining ST and IT risk/reward relationships for owning stocks that me turning bearish. I really don't care if this thing keeps going up without me fully on board. I'm kinda gettin' a little burnout and need a break. XAU is still ground zero for the IT and LT market tell IMHO. This market and global FIAT money system requires global central bank cooperation. There's no better measure for that than gold to a lessor extent silver prices. The XAU leads those prices. I still expect to see the PM bull continue but should PMs and XAU plumment quickly and dramatically I will be out of longs and shorting.