
Big Mac Attack
#121
Posted 29 May 2011 - 12:36 PM
Taking note of the bouncing balls on the NYSI:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2006-10-10&en=(today)&i=p78746276986&a=163053784&r=4564.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#122
Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:59 AM
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#123
Posted 31 May 2011 - 11:08 AM
Hi diogenes,
Based on the bouncing balls, do you think that a bear market will be starting anytime soon?
Interested in your opinion.
Don't know the if and when. Warning signs are mounting, but the lower trend lines on the NYSI, and the SPX, and the upper line on the VIX, to say nothing of the black cross on the 50 and 200 day moving averages on the SPX, are going to have to be in play before anything as long term as an actual bear market will arrive. None of that has happened yet so the money is still on the long side.
In other words, floating ice has been spotted but no icebergs yet as the mighty market Titanic sails on.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#124
Posted 07 June 2011 - 01:02 PM
Question regarding NYMO if you have time. You've mentioned in the past a 'buy' spike in the NYMO that occurs early in the approximately 2 month bullish cycle (just going from memory from your old thread on the swing waves forum). Is there an equivalent type of NYMO pattern from a bearish perspective? Just wondering if that move up in NYMO during the last week of May was just that. The rapid turn down on the first rather surprised me as I didn't see any warning before hand. The turn back up on 5/25 showed some indication of a turn before it happened.
The longer term picture looks down to me and right now I'm looking at the NYMO as a bounce back to the 0 line until proven otherwise. The summation is still negative and the summation divergences over the past several months with price seem very negative also. Trying to remain objective and understand what I'm seeing. Thanks!
Yes, you could read the NYMO from the bear side too. Quite reliable (in bear markets primarily).
I'm not doing that right now because it's still a bull market and all my signals on the short side just don't work while all my signals on the long side are working quite well. It's the same system with the signals reversed.
But to take a closer look at your question. The way to read the NYMO in the bearish context is to examine its peaks, and what happens on the down ticks from each subsequent peak. So, take a look at April 4 peak. That would be the marker for the cycle. As I'd read that, 5/2 would be the down tick from the next peak. That would be the "sell spike" so to speak (also a high below the April high and a divergence with the April high besides) and a splendid short signal. Then again you have peaks and sells on 5/11, 5/20, and finally 6/1. Short all those and you probably would do quite well (assuming you have a decent cover strategy).
Interesting... Thanks for making me take a look at this. That kind of follow through on the down side has not happened for a while. We may be in transition to a bear.
I think I'll copy all this to my "Big Mac Attack" thread on swing waves with a chart to illustrate the point.
Good luck and good trading.
http://stockcharts.c...1641&r=8116.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#125
Posted 18 June 2011 - 07:15 AM
Good luck and good trading.
http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=4392.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#126
Posted 04 August 2011 - 01:18 AM
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#127
Posted 11 August 2011 - 02:59 PM
Good luck and good trading.
http://stockcharts.c...0375&r=3384.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#128
Posted 16 August 2011 - 06:59 PM
#129
Posted 26 August 2011 - 03:00 PM

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#130
Posted 29 August 2011 - 10:28 AM