173 replies to this topic

[darnelds]

Diogenes, TZA has been in a trading range for 3 weeks now. Have you given up on it yet?

[diogenes227]

Been gone from the market (and posting since mid-October).

Back now and it looks like the "same ol' same ol'." Like entering the game at half-time with the score zero-zero. Market continues its confounding bullish chop as the NYSI whipsaws. Not a nice action.

I see the NYSI put on two trades to the upside since my last post, one flat on TNA and one up nearly approximately 6 percent, and two trades to the downside, one losing 5.3 percent on TZA and one losing 2.5 percent, and is currently short with (as I'm writing this with TZA up 2.3 percent) -- which came out at exactly zero at the moment I raw the cash numbers (exactly zero, I kind of liked how that happened, and of course, one second later it was fluctuating off that number).

Oh, well, didn't miss anything while I was gone.

So where are we now? On a sell and oversold. So once again, looking for a bounce then a drop to put a low above a low on the NYMO/NAMO, and then a following upturn on the NYSI/NASI to kick off the Christmas rally. That action could take another 10 days or so (that time frame is just speculation since the market will do whatever the market wants to do).

Hopefully, we get some more downside on this swing to scare the hell of the bulls (and make for a better rally later), but given how hard it's been to get any sustained decline (notice the losses are mostly in TZA) in this bull market, we might not get much.

For now, the "context, context, context" is to be short or in cash.

Below is an update of my primary chart. Note the VIX trendline (like to see that broken to the upside) the and usual 66 day cycle on the NYMO which still is in play.

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=8467.png

[diogenes227]

To update from the post above:

"So where are we now? On a sell and oversold. So once again, looking for a bounce then a drop to put a low above a low on the NYMO/NAMO, and then a following upturn on the NYSI/NASI to kick off the Christmas rally. That action could take another 10 days or so (that time frame is just speculation since the market will do whatever the market wants to do).

Hopefully, we get some more downside on this swing to scare the hell of the bulls (and make for a better rally later), but given how hard it's been to get any sustained decline (notice the losses are mostly in TZA) in this bull market, we might not get much."

We just had that above referenced bounce (five to six percent on TNA if one knows how to play a risky NYMO swing from oversold). Now what are we looking for? The low above the low on the NYMO/NAMO, followed by an upturn in the NYSI/NASI to kick off the Santa Claus.

Might happen right here. .. Could happen tomorrow for a low above a low, or that 66-days line has been sitting on the chart above for a long time and we are on the 64th day by my count, making the half day after Thanksgiving number 66 -- wouldn't that be a kicker to blow a few minds, a hard-running rally coming out of a limp half-day session?

Might not happen right here... Doesn't feel like we've had enough of drop to scare any bulls. Wouldn't mind seeing fear happen before we take off to the upside again.

So where are we now? For now the bears still have the ball but for what it's worth me thinks they better run with it hard and take out that NYMO low six days ago with a vengeance or they'll could be feeling a lot of pain all the way to the Super Bowl.

Good trading to everyone.

[diogenes227]

Liftoff? Got the low above the low on the NYMO today as per the post and chart above. That's an aggressive trader's buy with a tight stop. NYSI has not yet turned up but it's in the neighborhood where it can. Good trading to everyone.

[diogenes227]

See posts since November 12, and the green circles in August and now on the chart above -- as Yogi would say, "deja vu all over again..." NYSI still hasn't turned up so this bullish set up can still fall apart but it looks like downside time is running out and Santa may have already saddled up his reindeer.

Edited by diogenes227, 01 December 2010 - 07:45 PM.

[diogenes227]

NYSI turned up today, confirming the aggressive low-above-a-low buy signal on the NYMO on August 24th, a turn which was tracked here since the November 12th plunge in the NYMO (posted above). Simply put, going forward bulls rule until they don't anymore.

But let's go back to the low-above-a-low just for discussion's sake. Was that lift off or not? TNA and the market indexes backed off for three days after that making it look as if the downside was not done, but if one paid attention to sectors and stocks in conjunction with the NYMO/NAMO action, it was quite evident, as long as the setup was not take out, that a rally was about to begin, and so it did...

Whenever a low above a low goes into the NYMO after a prolonged decline in the NYSI, it's time -- and I mean it's ALWAYS time -- to pay close attention to the market's price action because that low is often the prelude to the larger turn to the upside if not the actual turn itself. If one is short at that moment, it is time to tighten stops (or cover, cover, cover...). If one is in cash, it's an aggressive buy with a tight stop (how tight depends on an individual trader's risk aversion). These conditions can change in a bear market, of course, but given the price action we've seen at least since August it's obvious this is no bear.

So, given the bull market, that aggressive buy point on the NYMO/NAMO low above a low is a screaming opportunity to start going long. See the charts below for some examples. For reference (you know "deja vu all over again"), I have also marked the August 31 aggressive buy on the NYMO as well as the November 24th buy. These examples are mostly basic materials, but it probably should be mentioned that there are so many semiconductors stocks making new highs it's almost dizzying.

That's about all I have to say about that. Hope this helps somebody make some money.

http://stockcharts.c...4782&r=1343.png

http://stockcharts.c...4776&r=5305.png

http://stockcharts.c...4778&r=2262.png

[diogenes227]

Just a little housekeeping before the weekend. Said above, there were semiconductor stocks making new highs like mad (wonder what that means for the world's economies?), cued by the November 24 low-above-a-low buy on the NYMO. Here's a sector chart for semis as an example to accompanying those sectors above.

Have a good weekend and all hail the McClellan Oscillator!

http://stockcharts.c...7469&r=3739.png

[diogenes227]

Uh-huh...

Another nice four days in the bull ring. TNA just went past seven percent. Probably time for a bit of a price pullback or a sideways slide. The NYMO often likes to dip in the third or fourth week of its cycle (we are in the third week of this move).

Stocks acting great (see sector charts above) but getting overextended.

Blah, blah, blah. We're probably chopping up until late Jan or early Feb (the Superbowl will be fine with me), but it might get dicey for a minute or two here. And if the overall bullish conditions decide to change on a dime, guess what indicator will see that?

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=8748.png

[diogenes227]

Been updating the chart above regularly. Latest commentaries on trading the McClellan have been on Fearless Forecasters (they need the help ).

...Market doing what is always does...

[diogenes227]

Green circles giving way to red circles on the NYMO...and a drop through the zero line turning the NYSI down.

Not a lot of red circles lately and now, a little early, here they are. What do we want to call the them? Uh? Uh? Uh? Oh, yeah -- BEARISH!




http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=1626.png