QUOTE (DrSP @ Oct 4 2011, 11:36 AM) *
I suggest you to define your swing trade signal if that is what it is. I noted it failed because on 28th you got a TZA buy, on 29th you got a TNA buy, on 30th again you got a TZA buy. Does a swing trade indicator give you swing signals every day? I am not even going to the 1 day signals that you got several times for the past 2 months. So, tell me what I don't understand! It is a pity that you blame on it me and say you don't understand. And you never define your stops.
I see several people on this forum coming and gloating when they are up saying "I am sitting on the beach and enjoying the sunshine while my indicator is doing the work for me" but they fail to acknowledge when that fails. It is not fair.
My swing signals have been defined ad infinitum (and for some, ad nauseum, I suppose) and even revised at times (markets make revisions necessary at times, if you're wondering) on my Swing Waves thread for years:
LATEST BIG MAC ATTACK POSTS
I noted it failed because on 28th you got a TZA buy, on 29th you got a TNA buy, on 30th again you got a TZA buy. Does a swing trade indicator give you swing signals every day? I am not even going to the 1 day signals that you got several times for the past 2 months. So, tell me what I don't understand! It is a pity that you blame on it me and say you don't understand. And you never define your stops.
This exactly what I mean by you not understanding my signals (and apparently want to take no effort to understand, as I have above to try to understand yours).
I did not get a TZA buy on the 28th. That swing began on Sept. 8th (14 days earlier, which is pretty much the average duration for my signals) and netted about 8.3 percent. You are right, there was a one-day signal on TNA from Sept. 29 to Sept. 30 which lost about 9.3 percent. That was the second biggest loss for a TNA swing in three years, by the way -- sign of the bear (the biggest loss was just before that -- also a sign of the bear). The current TZA buy, on Sept. 30, is at this moment up 15.2 percent. All of those are end-of-the-day trades. Is that defined enough for you, and are those end-of-the-day triggers precise enough for you to understand?
I believe in using stops but the purpose of this discussion and the current discussion on Swing Wave, I pulled out all the stops. Repeat, there are no stops to be defined.
You don't have to bother but if you're going to go on doubting me, at least for once try to understand what you dealing with. Willful ignorance and laziness doesn't help any trader, especially the trader who has those vices. When and if you do understand my model and you find fault with it, please let me know. We're supposed to all be here to try to help each other trade better.
Good luck in the future and good trading.
- Listen, you are recording the peaks and the lows. Keep in mind you cannot tell it is a peak or a low, until after the next day's close. No matter what you explain, that is the truth. You can circle the peak and the low, but you cannot buy TZA or TNA until the peak or low the next day.
Yes, that is right -- it is the next day's close that is the signal.
Next time, don't mark a peak and say "Hey I bought TZA on the day NYMO peaked". The correct explanation, if you did, is you buy TZA the next day close, unless you already dreamed about it. You are marking buys and sells on the exact days where peaks and lows have happened.
I have never said I bought TZA on the day the NYMO peaked. I may in fact have bought it during the day for myself but for the purpose of this thread the buy is always on the close. THE BUY IS ALWAYS ON THE CLOSE!
- On Sept. 15th, NYMO recorded 55. On 27th, NYMO recorded 22 and next day on 28th it went lower. That is lower high. It is on 28th TZA is a buy, not 27th. Tell me why it is not!
This is a swing signal for TZA from a high below a high on the NYMO to a low above a low. It's not a new buy on the 28th because the buy was on Sept. 8 (I've repeated this many times now). There were wild swings while that signal was in place (it was losing like 9 percent at one point) but there was no low above a low to reverse to the long. That came on the 29th (please note that the close of the 29th is the date after low on the 28th which set the low above a low in place -- always on the close of the day after the dip or peak). That TZA trade closed up 8.3 percent.
- Dude, You don't know if it is higher high, higher low or whatever until the next day reading when market ends. How are you telling me you bought TZA on 29th, when the NYMO actually went lower the next day on 30th and recorded higher low. To record a higher low, the peak has to be followed by a next day down. Unless you are imagining a lot of things and saying that to us.
Okay, that "Dude" makes me wonder how old you are (hmm, this may be the problem...). Regardless, don't call me Dude again -- it is rude, disrespectful, unprofessional and evidently immature.
As per your comment: I did not buy TZA on the 29th, I bought TNA because that was a low above a low from the 28th. The next day that long signal failed and, with a out stop, lost 9.3 percent. As you would say, this is not a 100 percent system (I'd like you tell me where there is one). This is trading, you have winners, and you have losers. That's the way it is.
- On Sept. 30th, it is your signal for TZA. Close for 30th was 52.97$, today's close is 49.58$. Tell me why it is not a fail.
That's right Sept 30th is my signal for TZA and, yes, the close was $52.97. You're starting to get it (I hope). And, yes, at today's close, without a stop, that signal is now losing 6.6 percent as a result of the massive squeeze at the end of the day but there is no low above a low on the NYMO so if you're a swing trader with no stop that trade is still on. It may very well lose money by the time there is a low above a low to close it out but it is not "a fail" yet. It might be in the end but we'll have to wait to see (just like the swing from Sept. 8th, which you declared a failure a couple of times as I recall before it finished up 8.3 percent). We'll have to wait and see.
In the meantime, it is a perfect example of why I say above "I will always stress that STOPS ARE ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY to limit losses, guard against trading insanity and protect against capital catastrophe." You want a definition of a stop? NEVER LET A 15 PERCENT GAIN TURN INTO A LOSS.
Which is why I am in cash now while the short signal is still on. I will short via TZA the next high below a high on the NYMO.
Don't repeat the same things. I have indicated you the specific points I contradict, I cited the dates. If possible, offer individual explanations.
Sorry I had to repeat -- trades in this system are always on the close on the day after a peak, and on the close on the day after a dip. Never on the peak or the dip itself. You have your dates wrong and that is a simple fact. That said, I hope my individual explanations are clear and have helped.
Good luck and good trading.
Edited by diogenes227, 04 October 2011 - 04:41 PM.