173 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

Posted on Fearless Forecasters Friday, 2/10:

So is this it? Or is it now?

"So is this it? Or is it for now?"

The NYSI gave a sell today but there is no high below a high in the NYMO, and the NYMO is down five days in a row, putting it in pretty deeply oversold territory. In addition, on the three 3xlong ETFs I follow closely -- TNA, TQQQ, and UPRO -- none have broken any trend lines nor triggered any MACD cross overs a la Jack Chan. And everything seemed to firm up a bit at the close today.

So, FWIW, I think it's it for now, and we're going to bounce...

Ideally, the NYMO will put in a high below a high on the bounce and if it happens to be below the zero line (which happens fairly often with the indexes close to their highs) that will be a gift to the bears. That gift could last three to five weeks (likely). If the bears can tear apart the entire rally so far this year then this is still a bear market (very unlikely) and there's going to be a lot of jaw-dropping by the bulls.

After this pause, I think we're going higher but if the bulls can turn a bounce into another big run to the upside right now (not out of the question), jaws will be dropping elsewhere as well as I suspect, at this point, a lot of bear-skin wallets.

Good luck and good trading.

P.S. Thanks, RD, for the nice nod.

[diogenes227]

...That gift could last three to five weeks (likely).

After this pause, I think we're going higher...

Like clockwork -- this was the fifth week down in trading days on the NYSI. Now with a low above a low on the NYMO and a positive NYSI it's a bull move until it isn't (possibly off sometime in May) -- that is to say, be long, buy dips, look for breakouts, try to avoid any temptations to short anything. Particularly, buy dips since there's likely to be dips given that an awful lot of stuff is overbought after this oh-so-shallow pull back (it's a sign of the bull that it is not easy to get on the train).

Good luck and good trading.

[diogenes227]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-04-01&en=(today)&i=p35105643137&a=163053784&r=4747.png

[diogenes227]

Now looking for...follow through, follow through, follow through...

http://stockcharts.c...7272&r=4979.png

Edited by diogenes227, 13 March 2012 - 05:41 PM.