173 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

Am on the road so could not be timely, but what obviously happened today? Three lows above lows and now a NYSI buy signal. There's a good chance this rocket is now in flight. More later. Good trading to everyone.

[diogenes227]

Am on the road so could not be timely, but what obviously happened today? Three lows above lows and now a NYSI buy signal. There's a good chance this rocket is now in flight.

More later.

Good trading to everyone.

Still on the road but dropping by a Wi-fi hotspot to see the rocket has put in a gap on its launch. TNA is up 22 percent at the moment from the June 8th low above a low in the NYMO (an aggressive trader's buy), and 10 percent since the NYSI buy, June 10th. The June 8th buy (a nice four-day run) has wiped out that particularly nasty loss on the employment numbers above in post #69 (so much for news ).

Bears will have a chance to prove their IT stance when this starts to flag but it they can't tear it apart, we're going on until late-July/early-August (?, just guessing at this point). Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=1030.png

Edited by diogenes227, 14 June 2010 - 10:49 AM.

[diogenes227]

Locking in some profits off the June 8th NYMO buy. Just because it's wildly overbought. TNA up 25 percent. Letting NYSI buy from June 10th ride.

[diogenes227]

Posted these on FF board today:

RUT up on the day. NYMO up (still highs above highs and lows above lows...). NYSI flat (I have it up a couple points in Trade Station; Stockcharts has it down a point). RVX down. CCI peeking out of oversold.

Pretty good chance we're going up -- and if it turns out that's a hook in the NYSI, quite possibly up a lot.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p73434038660&a=165889519&r=6336.png

[diogenes227]

Obviously, since last I updated this thread, the market did the exact opposite of the setup above. The next day, the one day up in the NYSI (according to Trade Station, not confirmed by StockCharts) aborted, stopping out all longs. What might have become a hook for a rapid upside move turned out to be a two-day ledge instead. In McClellan land (as close to infallible as any indicator can be), ledges are made to fall off of, and so once again, the market promptly fell off that ledge and is still falling.

I have noted the highs below highs below the zero line on the NYMO in the chart below because those are always gifts to the bears, usually sizable gifts, and they occur regularly. ("Simplify, simplify, simplify," says the great market guru, Henry David Thoreau.)

The short-side gains for these last five days have been fairly spectacular -- TZA up 21 percent, FAZ up 20 percent, BGZ up 16 percent, SPXU up 15 percent, SPX down 52 points.

What to do now? This market will go down until it quits going down, but it's five days in a row and it is now violently oversold. The point at this point is too tighten the stops on the shorts, or lock some profits, and watch for the turn, which could be fast and furious.

This is the definition of swing trading.

As usual, .

http://stockcharts.c...1497&r=3873.png

[diogenes227]

Like I said: "could be fast and furious"... I have the NYSI up 4 in Trade Station, which would be a buy. I see StockCharts has it down one point, so who know? This market doesn't make it easy these days, but if this bounce doesn't get wiped out in the next day or two, we are probably off to a decent bull run. More later.

[diogenes227]

Like I said: "could be fast and furious"... I have the NYSI up 4 in Trade Station, which would be a buy. I see StockCharts has it down one point, so who know? This market doesn't make it easy these days, but if this bounce doesn't get wiped out in the next day or two, we are probably off to a decent bull run.

More later.

Ah, the picture clears with the follow-through on the NYMO today, confirming the NYSI buy yesterday in Trade Station. The NYSI sell finished out with TZA up 13 percent, FAZ up 4.3 percent, BGZ 3 percent, SPXU 2.5 percent, and SPX down 14 ponts. Considering that TZA was up 25 percent at its peak and SPX down at least 52 points the turn was indeed fast and furious.

For now, the NYMO/NYSI buy is in place. The bulls have the ball.

On the TNA chart below price levels at the February low and this recent low look like a potential double bottom.



http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=2741.png

[diogenes227]

Locked some profits today on TNA (up 15 percent on this swing) on the turn down in the NYMO. Letting the NYSI buy signal ride for now. ETFs of note (and I wish I had them ) on this NYMO swing from July 6th -- DRN up 23 percent and FAS up 20 percent. Good trading to everyone.

[diogenes227]

I managed to snooker myself in the chop chop this week and foolishly went short for a moment (overnight Wednesday via TZA) for a not-so-pleasant 5 percent loss. Got coaxed into it by the red circles on the NYMO chart above (and over-reading the FF board where confusion often reigns). Took the trade against the rising NYSI and got myself a real nice NYSI lesson before going long again. So updating some popular leveraged ETFs for the week as the rally continues from the July 7th NYSI buy signal: BGU, up 12 percent, DRN up 20 percent, FAS up 6 percent, QLD up 9 percent, TYH up 14 percent, UPRO up 11 percent, and my favorite (when I'm not talking myself out of it), TNA up 17 percent. We're talking twelve trading day here! Have a good weekend everyone.

[darnelds]

Nice call.