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[autobot]

On November 19th I posted this in follow up to the November 17th short equity signal I posted: "Yesterday I wrote and posted here, "The Retail Index very often leads the S&P's. Yesterday this index reached very long term resistance. It has reversed hard today down 1.85%. A move under $92.75 basis RTH would be very bearish for the overall market." A move under $92.75 has a target of $79.80, the equivilent of $951 Cash SPX. There is very little reward left in this sector as compared to risk unless price of RTH recovers on a weekly close 96.25. I can see in the retailers tape a definite "firmness" so far today despite the selling. This index could easily move back up to test and make 1 more high. If it did, S&P's would do the same and likely move up to 1115-1117 area. At the same time, the thrust today looks real. Therefore, hedging the shorts through tommorow could be prudent, but in no way should a majority of the short positions be covered. Eminimee spoke of this dilemma very well on the last swing to move down to 1026 area; his post was very wise. I believe the the same advice could be taken to heart here and now. If this move down is real, it will be very psychologically difficult to hold on, through the volitility exapansion that comes with tops. Hedging can help. Trading around the core can help. But the potential reward here is very large and I am happy to take severals small losses to capture what is set up to be a sharp and deep correction." December 9th: The retail holders (RTH) have reached significant support at both the 50 day simple and Autobots targeted support of $92. A bounce in equities is to be expected, but because the $SPX500 has not reached it's support zone, the bounce is likely to be weak. A more significant bounce could be seen from SPX500 1080, DOW 10075, NDX100 1747. As UFO's post earlier this morning outlined, Cashin speaks to the very real and possible outcome of a significant dollar rally. As I have posted several times, and as have numerous others here, the crowded short dollar trade could become much less crowded very quickly if technicals magnetize news. Crude's price action today is of great concern to equities in that it has begun trending lower with little longer term support till $67.75. Gold has lower targets as well. These "clue's" signify to me a real possibility that the support area's mentioned above will not hold but for a brief bounce where once complete, much lower targets are in play. Covering shorts, though emotionally tempting, after a difficult period is natural but unwise for position traders. Consider hedging shorts at 1080 Cash if need be, though a better approach is lowering stops to entry on equity short positions and hold for much lower levels.