54 replies to this topic

[SevenOfEleven]

"Marcia..."
"Yes Greg?"
"How does this look?"
"Not too groovy Greg... not too groovy at all."

[SevenOfEleven]

"Marcia..."
"Yes Greg?"
"How does this look?"
"Not too groovy Greg... not too groovy at all."

Well this probably means if we do not invert right now we are in bad shape
Is that the answer to the question ?
AGK

We could shoot up for a third retest of the highs, giving us another 18.5wk cycle to do something better, but quite honestly the 37wk cycle (at exactly 1 octave) looks like it's already inverted.

So, two potential cases I see:

1.) Fast retest of highs within 2.5 to 4 (max) weeks then next 18.5wk cycle gives us a short pullback (left translation on the lows) and we take off.

2.) Retest and slam dunk down or just a slam dunk down without a retest.

I'm feeling the slam dunk more than the first scenario. If that happens, it will depend how low and hard we go down as to how long the correction will be, if perhaps even a total reversal.

My negativity stems from the 8year cycle having given a sell signal already. Even if the worst happens, however, the 8year looks like a potential long term bottom and it may invert after a few years. Not holding my breath on that one either, however, simply because longer term charts (such as those posted by Major Crappor over at Capital Stool in the original 'cycles' thread) look dismal for many years on gold.

Life and markets are fractal, however, and one never knows the picture that's just one step bigger from the largest already charted, so - anything's possible.

-Seven

[Thunders]

Seven I do not know if you had noticed that when we have two peaks we need to confirm them with oscillators.

You have used two oscillators here MACD and STO %K.

Every equal peak in stock price has to confirm with MACD and STO %K.

In here it does not confirm.

The second peak is lower in MACD and STO %K than the stock price.

That spells trouble….

[SevenOfEleven]

Seven I do not know if you had noticed that when we have two peaks we need to confirm them with oscillators.

You have used two oscillators here MACD and STO %K.

Every equal peak in stock price has to confirm with MACD and STO %K.

In here it does not confirm.

The second peak is lower in MACD and STO %K than the stock price.

That spells trouble….

"trouble" would be consistent with how it appears to me.

It could always be possible that the double peak was a _very_ short cycle (13 weeks peak to peak) but even if viewed as such a hiccup (it would be signifigantly shorter than any cycle in this range we've had during the entire run) it spells, again, to me, trouble.

Could always back away and drop all indicators for the most simple view - a double top, and still it doesn't look good.

-Seven

[thakid]

7-11 my dear, what is your experience with cycles? I am unsure if what you are posting holds any true value. TKD

[SevenOfEleven]

7-11 my dear, what is your experience with cycles?

I am unsure if what you are posting holds any true value.

TKD

Well, my darling, my cycle charts have not been wrong for the two years I've been posting them. Your definition of value, however, may differ from my mine, and your opinion is as valuable as anyone elses.

-SevenYourDear

[thakid]

Given your present view of gold what do you think the future holds for the US dollar? Wouldn't it seem as if there is an inverse relationship between the 2, at least on the dailies. All of our opinions are important i agree

[thakid]

BTW...Hurst is tha Man. I've spent the last 5 years studying all his work in depth. Definitely allot of talent there.

[SevenOfEleven]

Given your present view of gold what do you think the future holds for the US dollar?

Wouldn't it seem as if there is an inverse relationship between the 2, at least on the dailies.

All of our opinions are important i agree

Well, when I talk about the dollar maybe I should caveate my discussion by saying that I'm purely speculating and have no set or proven (even to myself) system.

If you look at a monthly chart of the buck you'll notice a HUGE divergence (macd histogram) right before this last bounce. So, my opinion is that there's a lot more strength behind the current rally than may be obvious. I think I had a target of 92.5 awhile back based on a 1:1 ABC up. We're obviously getting tangled on moving averages and resistance, so - just have to see if we get through it. If we do, and resistance in the 92.5+ area become support, then obviously we go higher.

I don't think I'm saying anything that's new here. If you check out Chart Guru Doug's DXY chart - well, that's about how I see it. Others I respect are saying pretty much the same, and Doug's very high on the list of those I respect.

There is a pretty clear inverse relationship - no doubt, and that concerns me regarding deflation potential if gold tanks and buck floats.

I still think we're in for a bounce with gold but I think, at very best, it'll be a retest of the recent weekly highs and will take a steep dive after that. My best navigator through this is my 8year cycle chart (posted somewhere in this forum) which gave a sell signal right on queue. The shorter cycles I track appear to be inverting (which is "what's wrong with {that} picture" in my recent chart in this thread) which just verifies to me that a larger (8year) cycle is taking us down.

-SevenSpec