21 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

I'm thinking short PMs here. HUI 50% retracement of the Dec. - Feb. decline sits at HUI 440. A 1:1 abc extension off the Feb. low targets ~HUI 435. Person pivots is something I have in my TOS platform. Daily R1 sits at 437 and weekly R2 sits at 432. Then you have the underside of last years upchannel directly overhead at 440, so this very much looks like a backtest for the moment. What are the odds that this breaks back into the channel right now. Slim I would say. On a very basic cycle basis, a 7 week cycle is likely topping here and we should see the HUI pullback into a 7 week low. My cycle work suggests a retest of the lows in March. Yet many stocks and charts are tempting bulls for potential breakouts. I keep getting chart alerts from my broker. Interesting juncture. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 03 March 2010 - 12:48 PM.

[dharma]

yes, there are hourly divergences, and i have been looking for some kind of short term correction. also,nem was the 1st to report earnings, and they blew away estimates. nem is about 10:1 pe which is very low for a gold miner. miners are still very cheap. i cant help but think that earnings for miners will be excellent this quarter, w/the gold price low being 1040 . dharma

[stubaby]

SilentOne/dharma: "Short" & Sweet" correction then on towards 475-480, IMHO stubaby

[dharma]

agree w/u stubaby, i said good bye to margin just now dharma

[dougie]

nice work all John: how would you count this bearishly?

[chem]

Gold reversing at 55% retrace to me points to a continuation of the move that was retraced - in this case not only can't new lows be ruled out but should probably be expected. There is something about this retrace level that tends to attract/repel gold - it shows up again and again over the years to the point where I see it as the decision level for the underlying trend. Chem

[senorBS]

agree w/u stubaby, i said good bye to margin just now
dharma

+10 guts, tres wave developing

PURE BS

Senor

[dougie]

Tim Knight says GDX Diamond TOP:
http://slopeofhope.t...abcf8970b-500wi

[SilentOne]

Gold reversing at 55% retrace to me points to a continuation of the move that was retraced - in this case not only can't new lows be ruled out but should probably be expected. There is something about this retrace level that tends to attract/repel gold - it shows up again and again over the years to the point where I see it as the decision level for the underlying trend.



Chem

Very nice work Chem. I hope to see you around here more often. The coming six months will present a great opportunity in this sector for a rally into 2011/2012. Until we make that important low, everything is a trade.

cheers,

john

[dharma]

make no mistake about it. the 2 year cycle is calling for new forever highs. i am bullish here. i am trading and will look to reestablish @slightly lower levels. gold made new forever highs in december. which shows continuation of the bull to my knowledge not one govt holds silver as a reserve currency. from the get go i have not been bullish on silver. there were very unique circumstances for it to get to 52. i have strong doubts that we will see that level again. folks who are looking @the strength of the dollar are wearing blinders. fiat is fiat. it will be a race to zero. w/one horse leading the other @different times. cycle analysis is being aware that things move in cycles, and is true. but, cycles shift and different ones become dominant @different times. eg. the year cycle had shortened to 11 months. and this year it was 10months. leading to my thinking that time is becoming more compressed. anyone notice or care that gold is making new all time highs almost daily in euros. these folks that comprise that currency have seen their local currencies be devalued, go out of existence, and been deceived by govt for eons. believe me this is not lost on them. we are not that far away from a stampede! dharma

Edited by dharma, 04 March 2010 - 12:16 PM.