30 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I absolutely take this as a bear market rally for now and I still expect a crash into summer. In my calculations, even a rally up to 1150 does not stop the weekly charts from trending lower and it will only come back crashing down, but it will happen slower now that they injected massively...

Weekly and daily charts are in an established downtrend. MCO did not put in a complex bottom. So i will have to give the benefit of doubt to the bearish case over the intermediate term, until proven otherwise. I agree with you that this is a bear market rally, but one which should last for a few weeks.

[dadook]

Hey, Maybe IYB has the indicator that tells that our indicators will turn bullish a week later

[IYB]

You are absolutely right, NAV, good advice, it was naive of me to think how nutty the central bankers can get...

I am still upset they did not even let a good flush down to 1030s, now we do not even have the short fuel. My guess is first we tag the 200 dma, pull back 2-3 days and then spike higher for 2-3 days and be done with this rally in about 2 weeks.

I particularly think so because of the cyclical patterns, everything is always subject to change, but this is what makes the markets fun. I am just trying to envision the possibilities and have a trading plan.

I am considering three gaps above, the 1100 problem, then 1120 and 1150 gaps. I think 200 dma will be tagged, so 1100 support will be most likely achieved for now and it will have to be digested, then we need a last spike before rolling over...

I absolutely take this as a bear market rally for now and I still expect a crash into summer. In my calculations, even a rally up to 1150 does not stop the weekly charts from trending lower and it will only come back crashing down, but it will happen slower now that they injected massively...

Way, way, way too much thinkin' for me. All I care is that my work sez the line of least resistance is up, and therefore I am long. Period.

[dadook]

We are witnessing both upside and downside panics. We are seeing some mind boggling numbers like TRIN 13+, 44:1 up/down volume. I read on Tony Caldero's site about 1:119 weekly up/down volume. How about that for a monstrous down thrust ? We are witnessing things of scale that technicians have rarely seen in their careers.

Based on above it sounds rational that market will crash .. but the market is irrational .. it might take us up on another wild ride

BTW, where is fib1612?

[inamosa]

One more day like today and I'll have a hard time disagreeing with you, Don. Thanks for sharing, as always.

[dadook]

dadook,

agree, and also, the money flow numbers as in Daves article - or in other ways of tracking it.

Thx for article dasein.

[arbman]

Way, way, way too much thinkin' for me. All I care is that my work sez the line of least resistance is up, and therefore I am long. Period.

Under the normal circumstances, it is a way of looking at the stuff... Thanks for sharing your views...

[dcengr]

I think many technicians would agree we've had a number of buy signals. I even mentioned I had several. And the market has been responding to them. The problem has been a follow thru after the buy signals. Several have resulted in 'retest'. Much like a triple bottom is rare, the more # of retests signifies to me 'buyer exhaustion' as they continue to add during the retests and become extraordinarily leveraged if another test comes about. Then you get a melt down, which is why anything beyond triple bottoms/tops are not discussed. I've had a number of buy signals of which I thought the market would fail and head lower. Even yesterday I thought it would. But it didn't and market responded with a scorch. Though I don't know what will happen tomorrow, if we go back to another retest, I don't think it will hold.. this being like the 4th or 5th time as you suggest that we've had a buy signal. But then again, we may not need a retest if this was the final one.

[zoropb]

[/quote] Way, way, way too much thinkin' for me. All I care is that my work sez the line of least resistance is up, and therefore I am long. Period. [/quote] That thinking stuff will kill you. Love it Big D and I agree my stuff was warning for 5 days and with yesterday 1072 crack that was it for me so until it says no mas it is mas north aside of the wiggles in what ever time frame it takes. Nav I liked that quote too. Records are meant to be broken. Leave some room for crazy.

[IYB]

Way, way, way too much thinkin' for me. All I care is that my work sez the line of least resistance is up, and therefore I am long. Period.

Under the normal circumstances, it is a way of looking at the stuff... Thanks for sharing your views...

Sorry if that sounded like criticism. It wasn't. I love your views, ARB. I just meant that I am very simple minded by comparison. Very best regards, D

Edited by IYB, 11 June 2010 - 08:47 AM.