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Let's shaft the next generation!


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#11 salsabob

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Posted 12 August 2010 - 11:20 AM

... the resulting lower prices would greatly benefit everyone else....


Really? How many times do we have to see this moive?


Over and over


This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly


This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models.

(Niall Ferguson, author of "The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World" )


Reinhart and Rogoff's book provides a quantitative history of financial crises derived from over 600 years and 66 nations. The basic message from all their data is that there are remarkable similarities in today's financial crises with experience from other countries and nations. The common theme is that excessive debt accumulation by government, banks, corporations, or consumers often brings great risk. It makes government look like it is providing greater growth than it is, inflates housing and stock prices beyond sustainable levels, and makes banks seem more stable and profitable than they really are. Large-scale debt buildups make an economy vulnerable to crises of confidence - especially when the debt is short-term and needs to be refinanced (the usual case).

http://www.amazon.co...l/dp/0691142165


Pretty much discredited -

http://epi.3cdn.net/...7_aqm6b9p0y.pdf
John Galt shrugged, outsourced to Red China and opened a hedge fund for unregulated securitized credit derivatives.

If the world didn't suck, wouldn't we all just fly off?

#12 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 12 August 2010 - 06:39 PM

Another interesting chart suggesting something about kids staying in school-

Posted Image

- this is the current unemployment situation


You understand that correlation is not causation, right?

Further, when an education is too expensive, it doesn't matter that you'll make more money than somone without one. They'll still have more disposable income and less debt than you.

It's not how much you make, it's how much you keep. Higher education in this country is a scandalous scam and the chickens are just beginning to come home to roost.

Mark S Young
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#13 salsabob

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Posted 12 August 2010 - 09:26 PM

Another interesting chart suggesting something about kids staying in school-

Posted Image

- this is the current unemployment situation


You understand that correlation is not causation, right?

Further, when an education is too expensive, it doesn't matter that you'll make more money than somone without one. They'll still have more disposable income and less debt than you.

It's not how much you make, it's how much you keep. Higher education in this country is a scandalous scam and the chickens are just beginning to come home to roost.


Do you actually have any data to support your implied conjecture that the typical uneducated person will come out of ahead of a typical person who is educated. I kind of doubt it.

Also, you may have notice the posted graph about unemployment. It's one thing to have a high paying job and paying off big student loans; it's quite another not having any job - sure no debt but you can't eat that or get out of the rain with it.

I'm not saying education can't be costly, but I am saying it is rather foolish of any young person to listen to advice suggesting not to get an education because they'll owe money or the government is gonna take some. I wonder if those giving such advice are perhaps less interested in the kids than they are in propping up their own ideology regardless of the costs to others. Kind of sad, really.

Edited by salsabob, 12 August 2010 - 09:35 PM.

John Galt shrugged, outsourced to Red China and opened a hedge fund for unregulated securitized credit derivatives.

If the world didn't suck, wouldn't we all just fly off?

#14 dasein

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Posted 15 August 2010 - 10:24 AM

Higher education is a recket in the USA - in other lands it is cumpulsory and (nearly) free. In the US, since we arent producing enough of the right kind of advanced degree holders, we have the H1B visa program - but companies are still lamenting the lack of home grown scientistsm, etc. Yes it is partly the educational system but also, in our complacent "luxury" kids choose to become lawyers and MBAs, or artists and sexologists. sheep? students were critical initiators for the 68 movement worldwide (anti-Vietnam in the US), who fuelded the 1848 German revolution, the Bolshevik revolution etc... university students - so how can you say that education makes them pliable and follow the herd - the more illiterate people are the more they follow the advice of the experts, and are afraid to confront a court. education is a great thing, it should be compulsory in a democracy, and it should be free and of high quality. Education is far more important to the nation than a fancy highway system with bridges to nowhere. There should be the same idea as in europe, which we used to have too, that not all people are destined for university, but people who do not have the grades to get into the Uni levels should branch into a skilled trade or technical career via a technical or trade school - chemistry is one of those subjects that would be at both the technical school and university level, with the former more focused and p[ractical. Not to dispute the chart, but an awful lot of auto mechanics and plumbers make a lot more than college teachers. If you flunk out, but can kiss a child and sound pompous, you can go for politician.
best,
klh

#15 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 17 August 2010 - 05:59 PM

Another interesting chart suggesting something about kids staying in school-

Posted Image

- this is the current unemployment situation


You understand that correlation is not causation, right?

Further, when an education is too expensive, it doesn't matter that you'll make more money than somone without one. They'll still have more disposable income and less debt than you.

It's not how much you make, it's how much you keep. Higher education in this country is a scandalous scam and the chickens are just beginning to come home to roost.


Do you actually have any data to support your implied conjecture that the typical uneducated person will come out of ahead of a typical person who is educated. I kind of doubt it.

Also, you may have notice the posted graph about unemployment. It's one thing to have a high paying job and paying off big student loans; it's quite another not having any job - sure no debt but you can't eat that or get out of the rain with it.

I'm not saying education can't be costly, but I am saying it is rather foolish of any young person to listen to advice suggesting not to get an education because they'll owe money or the government is gonna take some. I wonder if those giving such advice are perhaps less interested in the kids than they are in propping up their own ideology regardless of the costs to others. Kind of sad, really.


Do you understand the fallacy of the false alternative?

You seem to be asserting that one can either be educated or uneducated and nothing in between nor anything at substantially lower cost than 6 years of higher ed.

I will assert based upon my experience and that of my 2 Masters degreed wife that there are FAR too many kids going to college at far too high a cost instead of trade schools and other low-cost high return options. The next move needs to be internet learning at a tiny fraction of the ungodly expense now.

When I see the next critique, I'll pass it along.

Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
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#16 salsabob

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Posted 17 August 2010 - 08:41 PM

Another interesting chart suggesting something about kids staying in school-

Posted Image

- this is the current unemployment situation


You understand that correlation is not causation, right?

Further, when an education is too expensive, it doesn't matter that you'll make more money than somone without one. They'll still have more disposable income and less debt than you.

It's not how much you make, it's how much you keep. Higher education in this country is a scandalous scam and the chickens are just beginning to come home to roost.


Do you actually have any data to support your implied conjecture that the typical uneducated person will come out of ahead of a typical person who is educated. I kind of doubt it.

Also, you may have notice the posted graph about unemployment. It's one thing to have a high paying job and paying off big student loans; it's quite another not having any job - sure no debt but you can't eat that or get out of the rain with it.

I'm not saying education can't be costly, but I am saying it is rather foolish of any young person to listen to advice suggesting not to get an education because they'll owe money or the government is gonna take some. I wonder if those giving such advice are perhaps less interested in the kids than they are in propping up their own ideology regardless of the costs to others. Kind of sad, really.


Do you understand the fallacy of the false alternative?

You seem to be asserting that one can either be educated or uneducated and nothing in between nor anything at substantially lower cost than 6 years of higher ed.

I will assert based upon my experience and that of my 2 Masters degreed wife that there are FAR too many kids going to college at far too high a cost instead of trade schools and other low-cost high return options. The next move needs to be internet learning at a tiny fraction of the ungodly expense now.

When I see the next critique, I'll pass it along.


It's amusing what people will say when they don't have the data.
But keep looking! I'll stay tuned. :D
John Galt shrugged, outsourced to Red China and opened a hedge fund for unregulated securitized credit derivatives.

If the world didn't suck, wouldn't we all just fly off?

#17 stocks

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Posted 13 August 2011 - 06:29 PM


This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly


http://www.amazon.co...l/dp/0691142165

More from Ken Rogoff:

"'The lesson of history, then, is that even as institutions and policy makers improve, there will always be a temptation to stretch the limits. Just as an individual can go bankrupt no matter how rich she starts out, a financial system can collapse under the pressure of greed, politics, and profits no matter how well regulated it seems to be. Technology has changed, the height of humans has changed, and fashions have changed.

'Yet the ability of governments and investors to delude themselves, giving rise to periodic bouts of euphoria that usually end in tears, seems to have remained a constant. No careful reader of Friedman and Schwartz will be surprised by this lesson about the ability of governments to mismanage financial markets, a key theme of their analysis.

'As for financial markets, we have come full circle to the concept of financial fragility in economies with massive indebtedness. All too often, periods of heavy borrowing can take place
in a bubble and last for a surprisingly long time. But highly leveraged economies, particularly those in which continual rollover of short-term debt is sustained only by confidence in relatively illiquid underlying assets, seldom survive forever, particularly if leverage continues to grow unchecked.

'This time may seem different, but all too often a deeper look shows it is not. Encouragingly, history does point to warning signs that policy makers can look at to assess risk—if only they do not become too drunk with their credit bubble–fueled success and say, as their predecessors have for centuries, "This time is different."'

"'Perhaps more than anything else, failure to recognize the precariousness and fickleness of confidence—especially in cases in which large short-term debts need to be rolled over
continuously—is the key factor that gives rise to the this-time-is-different syndrome. Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang! — confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.

'Economic theory tells us that it is precisely the fickle nature of confidence, including its dependence on the public's expectation of future events, which makes it so difficult to predict the timing of debt crises. High debt levels lead, in many mathematical economics models, to "multiple equilibria" in which the debt level might be sustained—or might not be. Economists do not have a terribly good idea of what kinds of events shift confidence and of how to concretely assess confidence vulnerability. What one does see, again and again, in the history of financial crises is that when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does. When countries become too deeply indebted, they are headed for trouble. When debt-fueled asset price explosions seem too good to be true, they probably are. But the exact timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis that seems imminent can sometimes take years to ignite.'"
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change, 
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
 

#18 Rogerdodger

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Posted 13 August 2011 - 08:18 PM

The next move needs to be internet learning at a tiny fraction of the ungodly expense now.

Amen.
There's so much graft, and friendly deals on every level.
The problem is the greedy, corrupt ruling class, protected thus far by the Sheriff of Nottingham.
For now.
Real reform would cut off their supply lines on every level.
In the age of the internet, why do law students need to by an entire library of law books?
Cha-Ching.

Nobody rings the doorbell of truth: Doorbell Surprise

Edited by Rogerdodger, 13 August 2011 - 08:33 PM.


#19 stocks

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Posted 09 December 2011 - 01:02 PM


the more power you give government the more it will discriminate against young people. That is simply because young people haven't had time to organize into special interests like older adults.


Compulsory education. What would you do if you wanted to make youngsters tractable and demoralized? You'd lock them up in custodial facilities for their entire childhood and adolescence.

Academic education. Most people, studies show, learn by doing. So let's structure education to benefit kids that learn from listening to teacher and from books.

Child labor. Let's keep kids out of the labor force so they can't learn any practical skills.

Minimum wage. Let's make it really hard for people without skills to get a job. (But unpaid internships for the rich kids are OK).

Regulated labor market. Kill the common law "employment at will" concept, and tangle up the labor market with all kinds of laws to prevent employers from hiring and firing without cause. You wouldn't want an employer to take a risk on hiring some young uncredentialed nobody.

Mandated benefits. One way to keep inexperienced young people from competing in the labor market is to mandate all kinds of benefits from health insurance to unemployment to retirement. These are things that young people don't need and shouldn't have to pay for. They just make it more expensive to hire young people.

http://roadtothemidd...illennials.html


Steve Jobs: Teachers Unions Cripple American Education


[Steve] Jobs also criticized America’s education system, saying it was “crippled by union work rules,” noted Isaacson. “Until the teachers’ unions were broken, there was almost no hope for education reform.”


Comment:
The public schools, where I stopped “subbing” two years ago, are broken beyond repair. Unions are a problem, sure, but the entire system is inbred and arrogant about it. Curricula are designed by bureaucrats who use it to promote amorality, political correctness, and an inability to think critically. G*d help you if you quote science to express doubt about the global warming creed.

I stopped teaching when children found they can negate teachers by claiming they were touched.

link
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change, 
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
 

#20 stocks

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Posted 05 January 2012 - 07:45 PM

Wanted: Blue-Collar Workers

Across the heartland, even in high-unemployment areas, one hears the same concern: a shortage of skilled workers capable of running increasingly sophisticated, globally competitive factories


The shortage of industrial skills points to a wide gap between the American education system and the demands of the world economy. For decades, Americans have been told that the future lies in high-end services, such as law, and “creative” professions, such as software-writing and systems design. This has led many pundits to think that the only real way to improve opportunities for the country’s middle class is to increase its access to higher education.

That attitude is a relic of the post–World War II era, a time when a college education almost guaranteed you a good job. These days, the returns on higher education, particularly on higher education gained outside the elite schools, are declining, as they have been for about a decade. Earnings for holders of four-year degrees have actually dropped over the past decade, according to the left-of-center Economic Policy Institute, which also predicts that the pattern will persist for the foreseeable future. In 2008, more than one-third of college graduates worked at occupations such as waiting tables and manning cash registers, traditionally held by non–college graduates.

The reason for the low rewards is that many of the skills learned in college are now in oversupply. Through 2016, EMSI estimates, the number of new graduates in the information field will be three times the number of job openings.

link
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change, 
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.