30 replies to this topic

[NAV]

...so far cleared the following resistances.


1040 (23% retrace of the 6/21 - 7/1 swing)
1060 (38.1% retrace of 6/21 - 7/1 swing)
1072 (50% retrace of 6/21 - 7/1 swing)
1085 (68.1% retrace of 6/21 - 7/1 swing)
1092 (38.1% retrace of the entire decline from April highs)
Downtrend line on daily charts from April highs.
Various Gann angle resistances
Horizontal resistances at (1040, 1105)
Plethora of moving average resistances on various timeframes.

and has to now contend with the following

200 SMA
Andrews pitchfork center line
1116 (50% retrace of the entire decline from April highs)
1142 (61.8% retrace of the entire decline from April highs)
1130 (Horizontal resistance)
1173 (horizontal resistance)
Plethora of moving average resistances on various timeframes.

A new bear cub is born at every one of these magic points

Now, here's my question. How the hell would anyone play any trend, if they worry about so many mythical lines and magic numbers ? Do these lines have any meaning against a trend in progress ? I think there's a clear choice as far as i am concerned. Have faith in the trend until it turns or get scared by these magic numbers, and i will choose the former any day.

My trendicator remains in power uptrend mode. Will update when it changes.

Warning: We are in a cardinal climax window Aug 1 (+/- 1 week). Take care.

[IYB]

Now, here's my question. How the hell would anyone play any trend, if they worry about so many mythical lines and magic numbers ? Do these lines have any meaning against a trend in progress ? I think there's a clear choice as far as i am concerned. Have faith in the trend until it turns or get scared by these magic numbers, and i will choose the former any day.

Well said NAV.

I care about only one thing as a trader, and that "thing" is the direction of the market. The rest is nonsense. And currently that direction is UP. Period. Best to you, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p28841647693&a=203924744&r=747.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=15&i=p05860298919&a=199263752&r=187.png

[NAV]

I care about only one thing as a trader, and that "thing" is the direction of the market. The rest is nonsense. And currently that direction is UP. Period.

Absolutely !

[borland]

The Summation Index on NYSE zoomed above 250 today. And unlike the late December 2007 S&P500 top...... the cumulative A-D line looks to be making an attempt at putting in a new high...

[goldswinger]

And currently that direction is UP. Period.


IYB, I understand your point however, on April 25 at SPX 1220 the exact same statement could have been made.
also on June 21st, the exact same statemnt could have been made. In fact many went along with it and there was relative silence on this board for a few days...after June 21st.


In both these occasions the SPX lost over 100 points in a matter of days......

when people realized what was happening your account may have taken a haircut.

That's all I 'm saying. I trade in shorter timeframes and I care about short term turns as what we may get Tomorrow.....if not Tonight.

GS.

[NAV]

IYB, I understand your point however, on April 25 at SPX 1220 the exact same statement could have been made.
also on June 21st, the exact same statemnt could have been made.

Yes. The trend was unequivocally up on those dates you mentioned. Any intelligent trader who would have trailed his stop would have been stopped out for profits, if he/she was following the trend before those trend turn dates. Those who got caught were those who adamantly refused to acknowledge the change in trend or did not have stops.

Edited by NAV, 26 July 2010 - 11:07 PM.

[goldswinger]

IYB, I understand your point however, on April 25 at SPX 1220 the exact same statement could have been made.
also on June 21st, the exact same statemnt could have been made.

Yes. The trend was unequivocally up on those dates you mentioned. Any intelligent trader who would have trailed his stop would have been stopped out for profits, if he/she was following the trend before those trend turn dates. Those who got caught were those who adamantly refused to acknowledge the change in trend or did not have stops.

Agreed! AND THAT IS MY POINT. TRENDS CAN CHANGE ON A DIME.... AND YOU BETTER BE FAST ON YOUR FEET OR HAVE VERY TIGHT STOPS BEHIND YOU.

sOME OF US WITH A BEARISH SLANT ARE SEEING A CHANGE IN TREND COMING ALBEIT MAYBE A SHORT TERM TREND CHANGE.

At the same time , we may still head down to 870 no matter how many trendlines have been broken up, etc, etc.

For instance , OIL has a date with at least 67.... given the high correlation of OIL to SPX , I have difficulty fathoming a move much higher than about where we are....

GS.

[NAV]

TRENDS CAN CHANGE ON A DIME

I will have to disagree with you on that. There's ALWAYS warning before a trend changes. The worst that can happen is you end up giving the top or bottom 1-2% if you are late. If you are early, well sky's the limit

[MikeyG]

We either go do down from here or we go higher to around Wednesday and then go down, might be just a pullback, gotta see what the market says...

Edited by MikeyG, 26 July 2010 - 11:25 PM.

[MikeyG]

TRENDS CAN CHANGE ON A DIME

I will have to disagree with you on that. There's ALWAYS warning before a trend changes. The worst that can happen is you end up giving the top or bottom 1-2% if you are late. If you are early, well sky's the limit

NAV so true, I have lost much dinero looking for CIT...

Signal just went to neutral on AUD/JPY...