23 replies to this topic

[Ken]

I don't know for sure what's going to happen but I personally believe that gold is getting a little toppy here in the short term based on the daily charts. As of Thurs, Aug 12th Frank Barbera of the Gold Stock Technician newsletter also believes gold and especially gold mining stocks are looking a little overextended. In addition, Raymond Merriman in his most recent Weekly Gold and Silver Comments and Trade Recommendations for the week of Aug 16th to Aug 20th has advised his subscribers to go short gold and silver. Specifically, Merriman believes gold will put in a half-primary cycle top on Tues, Aug 17th or Wed, Aug 18th and at that time one should go short but with a stop loss on a close above $1,235. His advice is the same for silver with a stop loss above $18.80. This makes perfect sense based on cycles analysis. A primary cycle from low to low is usually 15 to 21 weeks in duration for gold. The last primary cycle low was 13 weeks ago on May 21st at $1,166.50 for the gold continuous contract. The half-primary cycle low was on July 28th at $1,155.90 which was 3 weeks ago. So the next low in gold should be coming up in the next few weeks assuming Merriman's labeling of the cycles is accurate. Since the half-primary cycle low of July 28th ($1,155.90) was lower than the primary cycle low on May 21st ($1,166.50) this current primary cycle is bearish and, therefore, a lower low is coming up in the next few weeks. If gold closes above $1,230 and continues to make new weekly highs after Wed, Aug 18th then Merriman stated he would probably change his mind.

[SilentOne]

Ken,

Thanks for that.

If gold closes above $1,230 and continues to make new weekly highs after Wed, Aug 18th then Merriman stated he would probably change his mind.

I have the exact same thoughts. Having taken profits mid-June in PM trading positions, I am looking to add back. Just wondering where that will end up being. Will be around next week to watch closely.

cheers,

john

[SemiBizz]

Your answer is here:

Gold is a reactionary...

It doesn't DRIVE markets..

your drivers have switched up...

A lot of people still haven't figured this out...

Unlock the currency charts and you have everything you need to know...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[SemiBizz]

There are positives and negatives here on this last hourly spike, the next few hours will make or break it.

[SilentOne]

There are positives and negatives here on this last hourly spike, the next few hours will make or break it.

Semi,

Tough call on the short term. I'm starting to wonder if the deflation scare is over for now. An 80 week Hurst cycle low and a HUI breakout over 467 would do it for me.



The Euro has confirmed an 18 month low, and possibly lows for even larger cycles as noted in May.

http://www.traders-t...?...=119750&hl=

cheers,

john

[senorBS]

LOL, Senor must be feeling malo or something but miners could be on verge of dramatic norte breakouts, maybe so much worry is a bueno thing? Long GDXJ and holding, if today's gains hold some muy importante breakouts start happening. PURE BS Senor

[dharma]

LOL, Senor must be feeling malo or something but miners could be on verge of dramatic norte breakouts, maybe so much worry is a bueno thing? Long GDXJ and holding, if today's gains hold some muy importante breakouts start happening.

PURE BS

Senor

si si
dharma
bull markets climb a wall of worry
1229 hasnt broken yet
we are spinning our wheels
what about this or that

[jabat]

LOL, Senor must be feeling malo or something but miners could be on verge of dramatic norte breakouts, maybe so much worry is a bueno thing? Long GDXJ and holding, if today's gains hold some muy importante breakouts start happening.

PURE BS

Senor

si si
dharma
bull markets climb a wall of worry
1229 hasnt broken yet
we are spinning our wheels
what about this or that

Crawford has the period from Aug 16- Aug 20 as bullish period for gold. He is recomonding people to use option to trade gold.

"The astronomic cycles for GOLD indicate a sharp increase from August 16-17 into August 20. That being Option Expiration, we may throw a portion of very speculative funds into a GOLD stock trade."

[dharma]

LOL, Senor must be feeling malo or something but miners could be on verge of dramatic norte breakouts, maybe so much worry is a bueno thing? Long GDXJ and holding, if today's gains hold some muy importante breakouts start happening.

PURE BS

Senor

si si
dharma
bull markets climb a wall of worry
1229 hasnt broken yet
we are spinning our wheels
what about this or that

Crawford has the period from Aug 16- Aug 20 as bullish period for gold. He is recomonding people to use option to trade gold.

"The astronomic cycles for GOLD indicate a sharp increase from August 16-17 into August 20. That being Option Expiration, we may throw a portion of very speculative funds into a GOLD stock trade."

so the wizards collide!
anyone got any popcorn
this should be interesting
dharma

[Ken]

Well, it looks as if Merriman may have been correct in informing his subscribers to short gold last week as gold is down over 1% this morning. I just read his monthly MMA Cycles Report which came out today (Tues, Aug 24th) and he's still bearish on gold over the next few weeks. The primary cycle low is due in the next 1 to 7 weeks and the price target is $1,128.50 +/- $16.70 for the December futures contract. Gold could go even lower than that if the half cycle of the 4.25 year cycle is going to unfold as well as the primary cycle. However, the time frame for the 22 month cycle low could be anytime between now and May 2011.