23 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

tradermama,

Sorry but I honestly can't comment on Raymond Merriman's accuracy regarding cycles. I've been a subscriber of his weekly gold & silver reports for about 8 months but there haven't been that many major cycles in that time period and there have been even fewer primary cycle lows - only two so far, I think.

In addition, when I first became a subscriber of his weekly gold & silver reports I was more interested in his critical reversal dates based on astrology because I found those worked well. The cycles analysis of the reports confused me and it took me a while before I really understood it well. I will say that between Merriman's monthly MMA Cycles Report and his weekly gold & silver reports I have been more successful at making money in the markets than before.

Right now I'm sweating bullets because spot gold in New York is currently trading around $1,254.40/$1,255.40 which hits Merriman's stop-loss of $1,255. Now Merriman was very specific and stated that gold would need to close above $1,255 but it's looking like it just might do that today. However, it seems silly to sell out of my short position now when on the daily charts gold mining stocks are getting overbought and could sell-off any day now. Another problem is that Merriman stated in the past that during Mercury retrograde prices can move well past support and resistance areas and then suddenly reverse. That could be the situation here with gold.

Yea, I see that too regarding gold. I have watched gld very closely for the past 6 weeks...and slv..really wild action intraday...and even today..we were up..then you can see profit taking of $10..but I swear, you can't time it right now or do it at your own risk.. What I do if I want to swing trade it and see a bullish development happening after a while of consolidation like we have (cycles not being used here) I initialize the position and wait for the break out or if we correct to first support levels to add...but for me, I feel gold will go up into Venus Retro in Oct..and like even Merriman said, get long after Set 24 for October when Mars goes into Scorpio..you might have to wait a couple of weeks if it corrects..but I've seen this happen where it does work with astrology and besides we are entering a bullish time too for gold...unlike the summer..I have physical gold that I will hold for a long time but I do trade gld and slv

Good luck and thanks for posting too
TM
P.S. with gld a print of 124 will give a new buy signal and it's not that far away..especially if we get over 1255

[Ken]

In an earlier post written on Sept 1st at 05:22 PM I summarized Merriman's two possible scenarios regarding gold - one was bearish and the second was bullish. Well, in Merriman's most recent commentary for the week Sept 6th to Sept 10th he has admitted that the bearish scenario is now off the table. Gold has rallied for too long past the lows of July 28th and, as a result, July 28th can no longer be labeled as a half-primary cycle low but as a primary cycle low. This is bullish. However, this week (Sept 6th to Sept 10th) starts the 6th week of the primary cycle from July 28th which means a major cycle low is due this week or next. (There are usually three major cycles within each primary cycle - a major cycle from low to low is 5 to 7 weeks). Gold needs to trade below the 25 day simple moving average to have put in a major cycle low. From there gold will probably move higher in price. Again Merriman stated that when Mars enters Scorpio from September 14th to October 28th there will likely be a 2 to 5 week rally in gold which should be pretty strong. Also, according to Merriman, stochastics for gold on the daily charts are exhibiting a bearish divergence as of the highs. I also subscribe to Frank Barbera's Gold Stock Technician report and as of the close on Wed, Sept 1st the XAU was showing bearish divergences on a number of indicators such as the: (1) McClellan Oscillator; (2) Short Term Ratio of Up to Down Volume; (3) Medium Term Advance/Decline Oscillator; and, (4) New Trin. For gold the selling intensity gauge is at the very low end of its historic range which is overbought and for silver the selling intensity gauge is at its lowest level not seen since February 2009 which means its extremely overbought. It seems to me a short pullback is probably due before gold, silver and the mining stocks can climb too much higher. Keep in mind that Merriman also expects a big pullback in gold when the 22 month cycle low hits which, as stated before, is due between now and December 2010. I wonder if gold doesn't pull back a little in the next week or two then blasts off to new highs in October and then falls more than $200 from the those highs.

[stubaby]

Ken:

Could be Wave 2 of 3 ahead this week and early next towards 1,220 +-
Followed by Wave 3 of 3 into the mid to late October expected peak

http://a.imageshack..../sccam1dwqp.png

stubaby

[dougie]

nice chart that

Ken:

Could be Wave 2 of 3 ahead this week and early next towards 1,220 +-
Followed by Wave 3 of 3 into the mid to late October expected peak

http://a.imageshack..../sccam1dwqp.png

stubaby