Edited by SilentOne, 31 August 2010 - 09:19 AM.
Gold
Started by
SilentOne
, Aug 31 2010 09:17 AM
31 replies to this topic
#1
SilentOne
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 09:17 AM
I suspect that gold will be very difficult to stay with for the next couple of weeks. I am still expecting an 15 week cycle low and now that we have rallied this late into the cycle, we could see a hard and fast correction which I will try to buy back.
This is not a top call.
cheers,
john
P.S. charts to follow
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#2
SilentOne
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 09:34 AM
A 15 week cycle low is due and as the PMs are overextended, the best thing I can do is take profits to manage risk.
cheers,
john
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#3
stubaby
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 10:39 AM
John:
I trimmed back some yesterday morning and raised some stop-losses - still maintaining CORE positions - just reduced some of the additional shares bought in mid-August.
It was really "hard" for me to do - so usually the right move - we shall see!
Thanks for all your posts!
stubaby
#4
SilentOne
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 11:10 AM
hi stubaby,
Having invested in and played this sector for the last decade, I have yet to decide what is more difficult ... the buying part or the selling!
GL/GT
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#5
stubaby
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 11:43 AM
hi stubaby,
Having invested in and played this sector for the last decade, I have yet to decide what is more difficult ... the buying part or the selling!
GL/GT
cheers,
john
John:
Been using RGLD as a proxy for near-term action FWIW:
RGLD
stubaby
#6
SilentOne
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 12:12 PM
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#7
diogenes227
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 02:26 PM
Thanks for the posts, guys. Very helpful and nice charts.hi stubaby,
Having invested in and played this sector for the last decade, I have yet to decide what is more difficult ... the buying part or the selling!
GL/GT
cheers,
john
John:
Been using RGLD as a proxy for near-term action FWIW:
RGLD
stubaby
I'm paying attention to the upper and lower Bollinger bands in this sector for context on which side to be on. That is, give me a black or red candle on the upper Bollinger and I want to try to be short, a white candle on the lower Bollinger and playing the game long.
I got an intraday sell on GDX about an hour ago which is a hint to me that the short side might be close.
http://stockcharts.c...2636&r=9808.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#8
dougie
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 11:55 PM
John: i am confused: if it is not a top call why would you exit CORE positions, not trading positions?
#9
SilentOne
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Posted 01 September 2010 - 07:49 AM
John: i am confused: if it is not a top call why would you exit CORE positions, not trading positions?
dougie,
How about that old 4 letter word: RISK?
HUI 500 - 510 is resistance. How many times have we been here in the last 3 years?
I have a short term target for gold of 1275 -1280 if new highs are made short term. That's a 2 - 3% upside.
My cycles are off and I'd still like to see a 15 week cycle low setup.
Many star gazers are bearish short term.
We have a major cycle low ahead for gold and silver. This is a 27 month cycle or mid 4.5 year cycle. This is likely due before yearend.
So I don't know. When I'm unsure, I step back.
My strategy has been to buy 15 week cycle lows this year and sell into resistance. A conservative strategy that has worked well for me.
That's it I guess.
GL/GT
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 01 September 2010 - 07:50 AM.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#10
diogenes227
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Posted 01 September 2010 - 08:48 AM
Short.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
