31 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

Short.

I figured you'd do that.

cheers,

john

[diogenes227]

Short.

I figured you'd do that.

cheers,

john

john,

Great call, and thanks for posting the many reasons...

Moved my stop to better than break even so this is a free trade.

[dougie]

the question was about the use of CORE: i had thought core positions one held on to

[SilentOne]

the question was about the use of CORE: i had thought core positions one held on to

hi dougie,

Got it. I guess the reason I let go some core positions is that I am uncertain of the degree for this possible correction in terms of cycles. As I mentioned above, gold and silver need to make larger cycle lows sometime this fall. I don't know when, so why hang in there for the potential breakout that hasn't happened in 3 years. That's why. Let's see what we get into Sept.

Gl/GT.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

the question was about the use of CORE: i had thought core positions one held on to

hi dougie,

Got it. I guess the reason I let go some core positions is that I am uncertain of the degree for this possible correction in terms of cycles. As I mentioned above, gold and silver need to make larger cycle lows sometime this fall. I don't know when, so why hang in there for the potential breakout that hasn't happened in 3 years. That's why. Let's see what we get into Sept.

Gl/GT.

cheers,

john

Just saw this this morning. So given the readings in the Hulbert, gold is cleared to correct into a 15 week cycle low. Hope it is fast and furious as that would be bullish. If this correction meanders around alot, then it could take considerable more time. You need to get some good pessimism again for a 15 week cycle low. Last ones were early Feb. and mid-May.

cheers,

john

http://www.marketwat.....sAndresearch

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON, DC (MarketWatch) -- The odds are poor that gold will soon rise significantly above its previous all-time high around $1,270 per ounce.

That's because enthusiasm in the gold market has already risen to near-dangerous levels. That's not the kind of sentiment foundation that supports short-term strength.

Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This sentiment gauge currently stands at 52.1%, the highest reading in more than seven months.

When I last devoted a column to gold market sentiment, which was two weeks ago, I wrote that the most bullish thing that could happen to gold's short-term prospects, from a contrarian point of view, would be for the gold timers -- for whatever reason -- to throw in the towel on their bullishness. ( Read my Aug. 18 column.)

That has not happened, however.

On the contrary, the gold timers have continued to become more bullish, with the HGNSI 7.2 percentage points higher now than then.

Another source of contrarian concern comes from comparing the HGNSI's current level with where this sentiment gauge stood in mid June, when gold was trading slightly higher than where it stands today. The highest that the HGNSI rose to during that June rally was 37.8% -- or 14.3 percentage points below where it stands now.

Contrarians believe it to be a bad sign that, even though gold is lower now than then, the gold timers are nevertheless so much more excited.

As contrarians are fond of saying, bear markets like to decline a slope of hope. And there's a lot of hope out there right now.

The HGNSI has risen above the 50% level on five distinct occasions over the last three years, and on each of those occasions, gold not only found further upside action difficult, it was trading at lower prices in several weeks' time.

To be sure, as I have repeatedly emphasized in prior columns about contrarian analysis, it is at best a short-term trading tool. So don't conclude from this column that gold's longer term prospects are any dimmer.

On the contrary, my research suggests that sentiment plays a role in the market's returns only over the very near term -- measured in weeks, in fact.

So gold may very well be headed to much higher levels in coming years, as many of the excited gold timers are saying. All that contrarian analysis is saying is that, even if so, the road to those higher prices is likely to take a short-term detour.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

Edited by SilentOne, 01 September 2010 - 12:30 PM.

[dougie]

i had thought you were buying into a mid august low, now you are out

[SilentOne]

A 15 week cycle low is due and as the PMs are overextended, the best thing I can do is take profits to manage risk.

When did I buy in August and where was the 15 week cycle low? The cycle chart is at the top of this page.

I'm really glad I made the effort to post the take profit trade yesterday, trying to get it out right after I made my sales.

I'm glad you find this all so easy.

Good grief.

Edited by SilentOne, 01 September 2010 - 02:05 PM.

[dougie]

Quoting you :"Yes there is always a risk of a short term correction, but my cycle work says gold is up into Oct. this year" "If there is any kind of correction into August I will be a big buyer to add to long term holdings." "Still waiting for an August low based on the current 15 week cycle. That is where I'll buy." "Jul 24 2010, 04:12 PM A 15 week cycle low is due in the next few weeks ..." so i take it you changed your mind is all. fine

[SilentOne]

Quoting you :"Yes there is always a risk of a short term correction, but my cycle work says gold is up into Oct. this year" "If there is any kind of correction into August I will be a big buyer to add to long term holdings." "Still waiting for an August low based on the current 15 week cycle. That is where I'll buy." "Jul 24 2010, 04:12 PM A 15 week cycle low is due in the next few weeks ..."

so i take it you changed your mind is all. fine

No I didn't change anything. We did not get a 15 week cycle low in August. I'll buy a clear 15 week cycle low when it arrives. Read Merriman's comments posted by Ken. He had been expecting the same but it never came in. So now we wait.

Edited by SilentOne, 01 September 2010 - 09:58 PM.

[tradermama]

Quoting you :"Yes there is always a risk of a short term correction, but my cycle work says gold is up into Oct. this year" "If there is any kind of correction into August I will be a big buyer to add to long term holdings." "Still waiting for an August low based on the current 15 week cycle. That is where I'll buy." "Jul 24 2010, 04:12 PM A 15 week cycle low is due in the next few weeks ..."

so i take it you changed your mind is all. fine

No I didn't change anything. We did not get a 15 week cycle low in August. I'll buy a clear 15 week cycle low when it arrives. Read Merriman's comments posted by Ken. He had been expecting the same but it never came in. So now we wait.

Hi John,
I just wanted to thank you for your updates..it's always appreciated it.
TM