26 replies to this topic

[alexthered]

darn this market is ripping my face off. Need to check the summation index after the close but this is crazy. Should not have sold my TNA

[CCL]

Alex:

We all do our own thing. You might want to look at the weekly time frames; I get lost in the wiggles too often.

I'm trying to train myself to not look below 60's; look at weekly for setups.

Just a thought -

steve

darn this market is ripping my face off. Need to check the summation index after the close but this is crazy. Should not have sold my TNA

[alexthered]

Unbelievable. NYSI shows an "up" dot for today's close, so I'll sell TZA and buy TNA at tomorrow's open. 09/24/2010 bought TZA 28.34 09/25/2010 sold TZA 26.68 (-6%) and bought TNA 46.07 09/26/2010 sold TNA 45.96 (break-even) and bought TZA 26.70 I think I will make back all my loss and more as soon as the primary trend re-asserts itself. The trend is your friend.

[diogenes227]

Unbelievable. NYSI shows an "up" dot for today's close, so I'll sell TZA and buy TNA at tomorrow's open.

09/24/2010 bought TZA 28.34
09/25/2010 sold TZA 26.68 (-6%) and bought TNA 46.07
09/26/2010 sold TNA 45.96 (break-even) and bought TZA 26.70

I think I will make back all my loss and more as soon as the primary trend re-asserts itself. The trend is your friend.

Alex,

It's not unbelievable -- whipsaws happen. We had the biggest whipsaw on the NYSI back in March through May that I've ever seen. That was truly mind-boggling.

I hope you're reading everything I've been discussing on context in this post and on Swing Waves. The context of the a rising or falling NYSI as I've said many times is more important than the mechanical fact. The market can do whatever it wants whenever it wants (and sometimes there is news like 9/11/2001). You need to find stops that you are comfortable with. And you need to study gaps so when you are faced with one you don't panic and sometimes you wait for a clearer picture of the price action before taking the trade. There's the old saying "when in doubt, stay out." There are times when that rules for risk aversion alone.

I've been worried about you since you jumped in and got smacked with this whipsaw so I've been re-examining a lot of things in relation to the NYMO/NYSI. One of the things that bothered me was you taking the trade on the open of the next day after the signal regardless of the gaps. I assume you're doing that because you're getting your reading from StockCharts. I take the trade on the close of the day of the signal (and sometimes that's a close call or completely confusing like yesterday) because I follow the indicators in real time.

So what is the danger of doing it on the open of the following day? Well, I'm not sure but I may have learned something here. I just ran a little test to see if the NYMO turns up and you make a buy on the next day's open, how would it compare to taking it on the close of the signal day. I'm going to have to study it more, but at least this year, it appears to be a better entry strategy.

On the NYSI (just ran a test on it -- holy cow!), the mechanical return on going long and short TNA (did the short on the TNA as substitute in the test for TZA because I don't have it set up to test TZA yet), is 38 times better than the way I've been doing it! That's at least the past year. Thanks for opening my mind a bit; it might pay off big.

For now that's probably not much consolation for you after getting ripped for the last few days but I agree as soon as the primary trend reasserts itself, this too will pass. Hopefully that will be tomorrow and for the next few days at least.

I'm long some TNA now. If the history above is right, it appears you might get a better fill tomorrow.

Good trading to you.

[alexthered]

Sold TZA at open at 26.20 (-1.9%) Bought TNA at 46.80 Just following the summation index and hope this chop resolves itself soon

[bluehair]

On the NYSI (just ran a test on it -- holy cow!), the mechanical return on going long and short TNA (did the short on the TNA as substitute in the test for TZA because I don't have it set up to test TZA yet), is 38 times better than the way I've been doing it! That's at least the past year. Thanks for opening my mind a bit; it might pay off big.

Could you please elaborate on what you tested...mechanical buy/sell open versus buy/sell close ???
TIA

[diogenes227]

On the NYSI (just ran a test on it -- holy cow!), the mechanical return on going long and short TNA (did the short on the TNA as substitute in the test for TZA because I don't have it set up to test TZA yet), is 38 times better than the way I've been doing it! That's at least the past year. Thanks for opening my mind a bit; it might pay off big.

Could you please elaborate on what you tested...mechanical buy/sell open versus buy/sell close ???
TIA

I just changed the entry point when the signals are given from the close of the current bar (end the day) to the open of the next bar (open of the next day) and Trade Station showed me the results of the shift. Quite a good idea it appears. Might eliminate the psychology of having to take a trade overnight without the fear of missing the boat.