66 replies to this topic

[dougie]

merriamn seems to be saying weakness till the 21 or wekaness till the 10th?

[tradermama]

merriamn seems to be saying weakness till the 21 or wekaness till the 10th?

That article was 11/29..so he refers to the next 10 days from that date..we're in that zone...but that doesn't mean he's saying that today..just commenting on what was said and what signatures are out there...we'll see if it stops Friday..if not, I think end of the next week which is option expiration...The market is expecting a rate hike from China..that's the reason for this shake out..so maybe if they do it..we get one more big dip..if they dont then that takes care of the correction..but it's speculated that they will...is it priced in?...we do know it has that possibility.....once that is out of the way..we continue up imo
TM

[dougie]

thanks i have the 21 as a turn (minor)

[tradermama]

thanks
i have the 21 as a turn (minor)

It's also a full moon..We could go up into it....then reverse.....Dharma says most times gold rallies into a full moon...then we have a bradley date Dec 25/26...which might be another reversal...

[tradermama]

thanks
i have the 21 as a turn (minor)

The sell off in metals are due to the fear of China raising rates..I was reading from another forum that China changed the CPI report to come out on Saturday..which is how they did it last SEpt..it was speculated then they would raise rates..and they didn't..it launched the run up in equities..and of course metals continued their advance..so the question is...is this de je vue...if that is the case..we could have a major up Monday...just thinking outloud...but all you hear is China going to raise rates..and we are down over $60 from the hi in a day...we'll see
TM

[stubaby]

Based on my review of a bunch of individual charts - this morning's lows could be IT! One more quick down in the morning and reversal would work as well. stubaby

[inamosa]

I mentioned a few weeks back that we should get a correction around now before the parabolic fireworks begin (see Senor BS's "Uno more norte" thread). I think we've started it. Normally it takes at least a few weeks. I sold some positions yesterday and early this morning between $1390 and $1410 and am keeping my core. Looking for the cycle low that John and JGS are expecting...probably somewhere between $1265 and $1300...before levering up again.

[dharma]

during the day, i am focused on the market and my stable of stocks. so i come by and give some of my thoughts. @night when its quiet, i do my studies , which i have just finished. in parabolics which we are in corrections are generally short in duration and sharp in price. sinclair targeted this time period 10 years ago , w/the move off the july lows and the subsequent surge , i became alerted to what the market was saying. the built up pressure is going to be let off w/a burst the likes of which many here have not seen. it was only duplicated in the run from sept 79 to the top in jan 80. while i respect your work ali your scenario is a possibility , but not a probability. there are several factors, the main one being time. this will top in the jan/feb period and if we dont have the blowoff then it will come later in 11. this time period has some symmetrical factors that have led me to the 1700-2100 area. also, today was a fib date for me and yesterday a gann date. w/the astro stuff calling for a bottom(my interpretation) by friday. so i am leaning w/stu. something new the miners have held up quite well in spite of the gold drubbing,which is also encouraging. either of stus scenarios suit my work. as i have been saying , december is iffy january is where the fireworks will occur. i dont want to speculate on china etc. but, try to express what my work shows. can it be wrong? absolutely. i dont bet on that though. i follow my work. and being w/the power of the trend sooner or later bails one out . there is no substitute for the primary trend . its why i am in this sector. dharma i mentioned some days back that i bought my 1st tranche of natural gas. i am in no hurry to add. the market has to exhibit weakness. other wise i am preoccupied. i expect the fireworks in ng to begin in a years time or so. right now its out of favor, just my game

[inamosa]

You may be right dharma...every now and then, the bull throws me a curve ball, after all. But, that's part of the reason I keep a core position - as opposed to the nonsensical idea of leaving the secular bull market altogether and merely hoping for a correction. I don't know where some of the posters here got the latter idea from (obviously not you, I, stu, JGS, JG, etc.)...quite sad, really. Personally, I think the miners look like they could use a breather here. Take a look at a chart of SLW and compare it to its 200-day MA, for example. If these things are going to go parabolic they need to get some rest because some of the miners already look parabolic. Also, I believe the parabolic top you speak of will not come in Feb. but rather closer to the Apr/May/Jun timeframe. I know the seasonal trend is for a top in Feb. and I know that gold is famous for tops in Feb., but I don't see it happening this time. One of the reasons is that I think it will need to move higher past Feb. to really bring the public in. But, if gold is going to do as you predict, then in the coming days and weeks I would expect it to hold (not significantly pierce) $1350 on the downside and it should break above $1420 on the upside (followed by new highs).

Edited by alysomji, 08 December 2010 - 11:54 PM.

[dharma]

You may be right dharma...every now and then, the bull throws me a curve ball, after all. But, that's part of the reason I keep a core position - as opposed to the nonsensical idea of leaving the secular bull market altogether and merely hoping for a correction. I don't know where some of the posters here got the latter idea from (obviously not you, I, stu, JGS, JG, etc.)...quite sad, really.

Personally, I think the miners look like they could use a breather here. Take a look at a chart of SLW and compare it to its 200-day MA, for example. If these things are going to go parabolic they need to get some rest because some of the miners already look parabolic. Also, I believe the parabolic top you speak of will not come in Feb. but rather closer to the Apr/May/Jun timeframe. I know the seasonal trend is for a top in Feb. and I know that gold is famous for tops in Feb., but I don't see it happening this time. One of the reasons is that I think it will need to move higher past Feb. to really bring the public in.

But, if gold is going to do as you predict, then in the coming days and weeks I would expect it to hold (not significantly pierce) $1350 on the downside and it should break above $1420 on the upside (followed by new highs).

obviously, you have been around the block. i operate under the premise that 85% of the people who put money in the market lose it. its why its so important to make a killing in bull/bear markets where they are crystal clear. after all, earlier this week gold/silver made new forever highs. corrections are a healthy part of the process.
1360=the 50day ma
1358 in my work is the death zone for this price cycle . hitting 1370 yesterday showed me strength , just past 1375 support. not doing anything in here.
watching and waiting
dharma