33 replies to this topic

[NAV]

You failed to answer my question on how you determined that it was a #4 and not #1, #2 or #3. I would still love to hear an explanation from you.

I placed a condition: that the 2007 highs need to be cleanly broken on the Nasdaq for a new secular bull in a major part of its components to be basically confirmed. I'm not talking about the Dow here or the S&P for that matter.

Nor am I guaranteeing anything or forcing you to believe in anything. If you want to believe at that point that #1, 2 or 3 are still viable, please go right ahead.

Uh ! I don't have a certain belief or opinion on this secular bull market theme.

I am asking you to explain something that you started. How does breaking of 2007 highs cause a secular bull market to begin ? Since your argument is technical (based on HH and HL), how do you preclude the #1, #2 and #3 scenarios under that technical premise? Unless you can technically preculde those scenarios, your argument has only 25% odds of success, which is worse than a coin toss.

Edited by NAV, 06 December 2010 - 01:27 AM.

[StenoDude]

I think the Nasdaq will see a lower low in 2 years time, perhaps in one. I think we are going through a counter-trend bounce similar to what they had in the early 70's that led to new highs, just in time to spiral back down to new lows. The problems of our times have not been solved. They've not even fully materialized so they can be dealt with. The Euro. Iran and North Korea. Sovereign debt. The list goes on. We are putting off the hard decisions that have to be made. We are still in denial and will be until the problem becomes bigger than our desire to avoid it. When we come face to face with these problems and deal with them, we'll have passed a major psychological milestone and a bottom in the markets will likely have occurred. Till then, I am saving my hard earned cash for a rainy day.

[Tor]

Even within the most frustrating of market environments there is always opportunity waiting to be found somewhere if only you take the time to look for it.



Once it takes out the 2007 high, it will have officially made a higher low (2009 vs 2000) and higher high (201? vs 2007). However, until it does, it's too early to say for sure a new secular bull market has started.

But, if we take a look at stocks like Apple, Amazon, Priceline, etc., it's clear that certain components of the Nasdaq are already in secular bull markets.

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Let's not forget: in the treacherous trading environment of the 1970s, investors tended to concentrate their attention on the directionless Dow, which only added to their misery. The tech sector as reflected by the NASDAQ Composite Index, however, was making steady upward progress at that time. By the end of the '70s, the NASDAQ experienced a blow-out performance on the upside compared to the Dow and it was clear that the tech stocks had begun their secular bull market earlier than most other stocks.

Yup. My post a day or so ago: deflarion game is OVER, inflation game is the one to play.

Count on it for your families and friends.

People round here just havent got a clue what they are doing in the main. They will not participate.

[milbank]

I think the Nasdaq will see a lower low in 2 years time, perhaps in one. I think we are going through a counter-trend bounce similar to what they had in the early 70's that led to new highs, just in time to spiral back down to new lows.

The problems of our times have not been solved. They've not even fully materialized so they can be dealt with. The Euro. Iran and North Korea. Sovereign debt. The list goes on. We are putting off the hard decisions that have to be made. We are still in denial and will be until the problem becomes bigger than our desire to avoid it. When we come face to face with these problems and deal with them, we'll have passed a major psychological milestone and a bottom in the markets will likely have occurred. Till then, I am saving my hard earned cash for a rainy day.

I would add housing and all that goes with that sector of the economy as well. That is what I see and why I wanted to make sure I understood that the three posters, Ali, IYB and Gary Smith, who seemed to be saying THE Bottom had already come were, in fact, saying that. It could be that, despite the fact that we have not worked through any of the problems that got the U.S. and the western nations into the economic mess they are in, the U.S. equity markets have bottomed. I doubt it myself for the reason you mention StenoDude. Nonetheless, having known and admired at least Don and Gary's work for about a decade, their opinions carry a lot of weight with me so, I wanted to make sure I was understanding what they were ultimately saying in regard to the secular aspect of the equity markets.