33 replies to this topic

[StenoDude]

When did the last confirmed omen happen?

Aug 11 and 12, 2010. It was a semi-dud, though we did go lower. But I'd definitely look at more than one example....

IYB and Steno...

I mentioned this before but for the benefit of those who did not see it....It is true that the last one was a dud. However
the 252 price rank on that occurance (with 1 being the highest) was 174. So price was in the lower half of the 252 day
range so it makes sense to have a bunch of new lows. The price rank now on NYA is 1. So it does not make sense to
have such a high level of new lows....a negative divergence. That is why i think this one will work and the August 11th
one did not Matter of fact after that occurence i made a post that i thought if anything it was bullish to be making such
a high number of new highs while a price rank of 174/252. It turned out to be the case

Cheers.

Agreed, such a large number of new lows while the major indexes are making new 52 wk highs is certainly something to take note of. This is not a healthy market.

But then, that's been the general consensus of this board all week.

Thanks for making the distinction. It certainly sets the current omen apart from the last.

Edited by StenoDude, 14 December 2010 - 07:24 PM.

[Echo]

and now if you really want some in depth analysis of this topic.....

http://www.mcoscilla...d_but_also_not/


Doc

[Gary Smith]

and now if you really want some in depth analysis of this topic.....

http://www.mcoscilla...d_but_also_not/


Doc

Thanks Doc and here's Mark Hulbert's take on the Omen.


http://www.marketwat...omen-2010-08-24


And December is a tricky month for many indicators because of the crosscurrents of tax loss selling.

[Echo]

WSJ numbers Adv 1352 Dec 1711 Sum = 3063 2.8%= 86 NYNH 179 NYNL 113 NYMO went negative NYA > 50 days ago All conditions met; activate 30 day rule and go short. Deactivate if NYMO goes positive (eg if AD is > +412 net tomor 12/15) Caveat: Recent spike in new lows mostly related to fixed income/ muni bonds and not issues on NY commons, ie operating companies. However, the bond CEFs ARE the canaries in the coal mine and they do matter, eventually.... Doc

[Gary Smith]

WSJ numbers

Adv 1352
Dec 1711

Sum = 3063
2.8%= 86

NYNH 179
NYNL 113

NYMO went negative
NYA > 50 days ago

All conditions met; activate 30 day rule and go short. Deactivate if NYMO goes positive (eg if AD is > +412 net tomor 12/15)

Caveat: Recent spike in new lows mostly related to fixed income/ muni bonds and not issues on NY commons, ie operating companies. However, the bond CEFs ARE the canaries in the coal mine and they do matter, eventually....

Doc

So true about the closed end fixed income funds as many of them have been taken to the slaughterhouse recently. I assume this is a function of higher rates and the fact they are leveraged. The link below is representative of many of the closed end junk bond funds over the past four days. Yet in the real world over the same period junk bond cash prices are marginally higher as are the open end junk bond funds.


http://bigcharts.mar...r...p;x=15&y=13

[Echo]

Thanks for the links, Gary. PHT looks like it went through its own repeat of the May flash crash back in mid Nov and is now getting the second wave down like it did back in late May. On the Hulbert article, funny that it also mentioned the deal about operating companies. Wonder what the relative percentage is of common only to composite back in the 1970s to now. On Fosback, he wants the lesser of the NH and NL to be 5% of the total and the NL being the lesser was at 3.7%, halfway between the 2.5% some HO users use and his 5%. Wonder if Fosback is still bullish. We know RR is only bullish gold, lol. Doc

Edited by Echo, 14 December 2010 - 08:13 PM.

[tommyt]

I've been busy and haven't confirmed these numbers, but....at first glance it looks like these rules were met today:

The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen requires that:

The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day (currently, greater than or equal to 69, which is above 2.2% of 3126).

The NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.

The McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.

New 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

Does anyone keep track of the accuracy of this Omen (model)? How many times has it been correct and how many times has the criteria been met? What is the time-scale of the effect (when it was correct)? Without answers to these, I don't know how useful it is.

Rich

The HO is OK...hits some, misses some with some subjective stuff along the way. Like how many signals and how long afterwards. Its really a warning signal that an up market has less cards holding up the house... IT IS VERY POPULAR CHATTER BECAUSE PEOPLE LIKE THE DOOM SCENARIO. I WILL GAMBLE AND SAY A NUMBER OF FOLKS WILL GO OUT AND BUY PUTS TOMORROW CAUSE OF THIS.

[StillLearnin]

Is there anyone who has the data to distinguish the number of NHs and NLs being made on common stocks only today vs the other occurrences of the Hidenburg Omen? If someone does T.I.A.

[IYB]

Is there anyone who has the data to distinguish the number of NHs and NLs being made on common stocks only today vs the other occurrences of the Hidenburg Omen?

If someone does T.I.A.

Nope. I posted chart of C-S-O AD line yesterday, but don't have C-S-O HL stats. But to toss out the very group of stocks that is causing this "problem" (and only look at common stock issues) may be kinda missing the point, imho....just as someone else suggested that we shouldn't worry about 10-day Open TRIN at 50-year extreme lows because it's being "skewed" by BAC and C purchases. My point is that there is always a reason for the problem. Identifying the problem area doesn't make it "go away" or change the readings. Regards, D

Edited by IYB, 15 December 2010 - 12:26 AM.

[tommyt]

this post is up to over 1,400 views and counting!...I rest my case about people loving these themes.