189 replies to this topic

[inamosa]

Personally, I will be looking into taking advantage of any gold bounce with the hope that gold will make a new high. As Senor said: "...Gold at best might try one more high..." Gold looks like it should start a rally attempt sometime next week, although a closer test of $1425-50 support may be required. I will be watching carefully for signs of rally failure once the move up is underway. I will be hoping we get a new high in gold. I would stay away from silver until it hits $30 or lower (where one may purchase it for the long-term if they are so inclined)...although it should bounce when gold rallies...perhaps to as high as somewhere in the low $40s, before heading lower again.

Edited by alysomji, 07 May 2011 - 12:18 PM.

[dougie]

i think we see silver at 44 or so before she packs it in gold : a marginal new high then i agree with senor 12-18 months of sideways to down but lets face it, who really knows? only thing we know for sure is there are lots of thieves out there who want your money

[johngeorge]

KWN interviews John Hathaway, Manager of TGLDX, May 6, 2011

Hathaway - Gold & Silver to Explode Again After Consolidation


With fierce action in the gold and silver markets, today King World News interviewed John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund. When asked about the smash in the metals Hathaway stated, “I think people go crazy over these price changes and I understand that. I understand how it affects the psyche and all that, but the idea is you have physical (metal), it’s an asset. Whatever it’s valued at one day to another in paper money is irrelevant, you don’t price your house every day.”

When asked about silver specifically Hathaway had this to say, “My instinct is that this was too quick for this to be final. It’s like a haymaker (in silver) and it knocked everyone for a loop. Could it go to $30, could it go to $28? Yeah I suppose so, it could, but it wouldn’t bother me.

The long-term fundamentals for silver are no different at $35 than they were at $45 and what they were at $15. It’s a hard idea to get across, but I think people get too wrapped up in current price action.”

When asked about gold Hathaway remarked, “Well gold has hardly corrected. I thought silver by comparison was very spikey and for it to go to $60, it couldn’t have done it from $45 without doing this first. This is just a correction for gold that may not be over, it may take more doubters. It’s a shakeout, we had this huge run and a lot of investors and traders probably got in too late if they were short-term in their thinking, but that is not the big picture.

The precious metals markets may just chop around for a bit. After that, gold and silver should set new highs. I think people will be amazed at what gold does. Once it (gold) had the last breakout, it did tack on close to $200 in no time flat, I think it will do the same thing again on the next breakout.

You’ll see an advance that nobody gets, nobody anticipates, and it all comes down to the fact that there is a lot of money to go into a very small space. Somebody likened it to trying to put the Hoover Dam through a garden hose. If money wants to move into gold just stand back because who knows how high the price will go.”

When asked about the mining shares Hathaway responded, “I thought we had value before this happened. If I look at the benchmark that I watch gold stocks are down about 15%. That’s a good correction and my guess is we need to get some footing. I would be disappointed if on this next move higher that gold stocks didn’t start to show some relative strength.”


When asked about the US dollar Hathaway stated, “Well I did think there was going to be a rally and we’re having it. That’s good because the dollar was universally disliked, but until we get some doubters on that thesis it really can’t go lower. It’s like silver and gold on the upside, you reach a point where the rubber band is stretched and it’s on fumes in terms of the move and you have to kind of reset the process.


So it’s not a trend change, just take a couple of weeks off and come back to it. The investment thesis is not at all in question here, it’s just dynamics of the market.


A lot more will be known in 60 days because by then people will be facing a world in which the Fed is not buying every Treasury bond that is issued. At that point we will probably see more inflation than is currently in consensus views.”


Not only did Hathaway start the Tocqueville Gold Fund at the bottom of the gold market, but If you go back and look at the last 12 years of his writings, he has done an extraordinary job in warning people about the current train wreck we are experiencing in this cycle.


Hathaway has over 4 decades of experience and he is one of the great original thinkers in the business. I have always said that he is one of the most under-rated fund managers on the planet. Lately however, his fund was recognized for its massive outperformance and Morningstar acknowledged Hathaway’s tremendous accomplishments with a 5 star fund rating.

[dharma]

thoughts
4black crows is an unusual event.
i have nothing in my work to show anything happening in may(not considering the seasonals) just my work
2006 the dollar went up so did the metals. the dollar looks cooked on the downside here to me. but it means nothing to the metals.
europeans have suffered through far more currency crises than the usa has . the dollar going up and the metals going up simultaneously would not surprise me. they are all just paper promises in the end. their relative value means little. today greece was downgraded and they are @the begging bowl.
silver was in a parabolic and had 2 dojis near the top. of course silver is the most manipulated metal.
here is armstrongs take on silver martin armstrong on silver
http://www.martinarm...005-06-2011.pdf
marty is fairly adamant or keeps looking for a mid june low in the metals. i have lots of turns and action in june.
this is a bull market. i am not going to forget that , or give it minor importance. i dont have a crystal ball . its all points on charts for me where i buy or sell . the metals made new highs for the run and new forever highs in gold about a week ago. corrections are part of the process. i base my work on buying weakness and selling strength . which i continue to do. i bought last thursdays lows (area ) in silver. and am not comfortable so, it will be a trade. and generally speaking i am just trading in here. its hard to have conviction in the very short term. there are so many possibilities.
above 1513, and that leaves the resistance band behind. in here its all noise.
being careful
dharma
i just want to add a point. no cbs hold silver, to my knowledge. when this breathes its last, and i dont think we are anywhere near there. it will be difficult/ impossible to get out. there will be many limit down days. all the silver, for the most part , is in the hands of speculators. yes, i realize its a beautiful story. dont fall in love.

Edited by dharma, 09 May 2011 - 10:24 AM.

[dharma]

well if you felt like crying foul
US commodities gold market in trouble as Hong Kong competitor to open
http://www.examiner....petitor-to-open
dharma

[stubaby]

dharma:

Looking at the simple FIB retracement levels of the decline - seems like the 61.8% levels will be key resistance:

Gold 1,531
Silver 43.42

Trying to keep it simple here!

stubaby

[stubaby]

dharma:

Looking at the simple FIB retracement levels of the decline - seems like the 61.8% levels will be key resistance:

Gold 1,531
Silver 43.42

Trying to keep it simple here!

stubaby

Opps meant to mention the same number for Oil - 107.19


stubaby

[stubaby]

Just "thinking" here and without knowing specific levels - I will be watching for a MAJOR shift in leadership, i. e., the MINERS start leading again -

• first outperforming on the upside during the present recovery phase from last weeks sell-off

• followed by demonstrating favorable relative performance on the next downmove vs. the metals

stubaby

[inamosa]

IMHO, gold has either started a multi-month correction or has up to say 8 weeks left to try and make new highs, before it does start a multi-month / summer correction. I'm hoping for the latter and favor the latter, right now, and that is also the way I'm playing it. I'm hoping for $1600+ if everything goes perfectly (does it ever?...it almost did in silver, before last week...lol). But, I would've liked to see gold base a bit at or below $1462, instead of just straight launching higher as it has here. Also, I'm watching the miners closely as gold goes higher. If I don't like what I see, I will lower my exposure. The upside is nowhere near like it was at the beg. of Feb. in gold bullion so there's no need to feel like you're missing a move. In other words, whatever upside gold makes between here and the end of June, I believe it will retrace by late summer / early fall.

[inamosa]

I find the miners and silver too volatile and unpredictable for me (not to mention I don't have the time to research mining companies properly). I have completely avoided the former for a long time but have kept at least a small position in the latter - until last week, when I finally decided that I will also avoid silver completely in favor of leveraged gold from here on out. I personally now believe that I'm best off trading in the PM space by taking on additional leverage when trading gold (what I feel most comfortable with) via futures and avoiding everything else (except physical, to some extent). It was not just last week's sell off in silver that pushed me to this point, but rather the meaning of the realization that gold is much more predictable and easier to trade than silver (and I never said trading gold was easy, so just imagine how tough silver can be). To be more clear:

Let's say silver tops this bubble at $200: $200/~$40 = 5x upside
Let's say gold tops this bubble at $3000: $3000/$1500 = 2x upside

To make that 2x upside into 5x upside, I will be using futures to trade gold at 2.5x...just to give a general idea.

That's as much volatility and leverage as I can handle. I know my limits and I know when I don't feel comfortable. Call me a weakling, if you wish - and kudos to you if you feel you can stomach more volatility than what I will be experiencing in the coming years just by trading gold at roughly 2.5x. But, I would much rather trade gold at 2.5x than silver at 1x. What dharma said is true, too - no CB or big hedgies are playing with silver. You got all the retail weak hands in it, and that's part of the reason it has swung around so much. A drop like last week was and continues to be entirely possible in a small, tight market like silver, with so many of the traders participating in it being from the retail side and having limited capital. Silver will always be poor man's gold, in other words - not what the rich play with.

Of course, those who can stomach more volatility than me will make substantially more than me if they ride the gold bubble in the right gold and silver stocks. Let me underline the RIGHT gold and silver stocks. But, I accept that. Those guys (like dharma) deserve everything the market delivers them and more because it's a lot of work and a lot to stomach, picking the right mining stocks and then riding them straight, including all of the volatility swings. Nobody said riding a bull is easy! We've all got to do it the way we think we can do it best. For many, the best option is probably physical...so that market swings like last week's do not affect their resolve to ride the bull, and because trading no longer becomes an option (buy-and-hold baby!).

Edited by alysomji, 10 May 2011 - 05:33 AM.