189 replies to this topic

[dharma]

thanks stubaby alysomji and i may not always agree, but i really appreciate his professional approach to the market. responding to what the market gives you is the mark of a pro. forecasting is a way to pick up subscribers, not a way to make money from the market. i am w/alysomji's view of the market in here. its difficult to remove the volatility from the actual underlying fundamentals. silver is , has been , and will be more volatile than most can stomach(including me). i have a fair amount of exposure to silver and i will not be increasing it. in bull markets you want your exposure to grow. w/silver i will be looking for the exits sooner than i will be for gold, say thank you very much and move on. gold is hinting that it wants higher. breaking of the resistance band from 1495-1513 is the hint. a couple of closes above 1513 and we have something going. i am starting to think this was/is another shakeout. nothing more, nothing less. try as i may to coincide my work w/armstrongs, i just cant make my work fit. i have a high, as alysomji mentions @the end of june. can my cycle work be wrong? you bet. but until i see otherwise , its the way i am leaning. 2 days off the low and gold is +50 higher. does it bother me that the miners are lagging? you bet. but the market is not there to satisfy my views. i have to accept that things happen in their own time. there are a couple of fires i see smoldering: the european debt crises , which has been on a back burner, is again coming to the fore. greece and the other piigs are broke. they need to either deault or paper over their debt. sovereigns hardly ever default they paper over. china is hinting about doing something w/the yuan. will it revalue? the us and china are set to meet. how about throwing the us a bone and revaluing? be careful what you wish for.!!! i am not adding in here , i bought slv near the lows and i am buckled up and waiting to see what happens. i will be selling into new highs or if a plan B is needed , i will deal w/that when the time is ripe. the gld/gdx ratio has hit new lows. signalling to all that the miners are cheap. why believe in the miners? simply cause their costs are fairly fixed and what they mine continues to go up in price as does their profits. for trading i mention a few that i watch , my core consists of miners that are underappreciated by the market. i have had maybe a dozen takeovers since the start of the bull. in the next phase i look for much more of that. i can be patient. doubling your $$in this interest rate environment is difficult but attainable in short periods of time. the power of the bull has to be understood , appreciated, and having the intestinal fortitude to ride. its not easy to ride. but it is far and away the most profitable. go ahead trade, very very few will outperform the buy and hold in bulls. here we are above 1513 , 1531 is the next point. dharma i have accumulated a position in aabvf. its nav is 1.45 and it is selling @.86, it is under appreciated. this is a trade. that pennant formation is signalling higher prices

Edited by dharma, 10 May 2011 - 09:28 AM.

[johngeorge]

dharma

Thanks for the commentary and analysis.

i have accumulated a position in aabvf. its nav is 1.45 and it is selling @.86, it is under appreciated. this is a trade. that pennant formation is signalling higher prices

Hmmmmmmm, I bought a position yesterday @ .87.

Best to you.

[dharma]

still waiting for a couple of closes above 1513, if that does not happen, well then the downside may not be finished. its a time for caution. i am not adding. i am in watch mode. not a time for being aggressive.
while waiting
sinclair
http://www.kingworld...m_Sinclair.html
forbes
http://www.humaneven...le.php?id=43439
dharma

[dharma]

this is a retro look@ miners vs gold , going back to the last bull
i am awaiting the miners giving the leverage vs the metal
waiting for the miners to lead, and not just on the downside
http://www.safehaven...76-1980-and-now
dharma

[dharma]

everyone always needs to do their own due diligence. never ever depend upon anyone especially me i am under no contract to post or say anything do your own work it is your money. dharma

[dougie]

why the warning here dharma? Afraid folks will blame you if we truly head south? I doubt it amongst those left around here

[tradermama]

everyone always needs to do their own due diligence.
never ever depend upon anyone
especially me
i am under no contract to post or say anything
do your own work
it is your money.
dharma

Hi Dharma,
I have been around just monitoring the gold forum...I always do my own due diligence..I was fortunate to call the silver top (to myself..LOL!) and get out of AGQ at 380 with a nice run up...what has caught my eye is the bearishness with the $hui/$xau..and the ratio of the $hui:gld...I like watching Chan's chart..but I dont just use that to determine my action..but what I found really concerning was how close the $hui:gld ratio's macd is to turning down on a monthly basis...here's the link to chan...need to scroll down...

http://stockcharts.c...t...04&cmd=show[s177240849]&disp=O

You have had great calls and will continue to have great calls....people here to appreciate your input..so please dont feel you need to give any caveats...anyone who doesnt do their own due diligence...is a fool and deserves whatever their results are...I would post my thoughts but I saw some posts that were in agreement with mine so I figure there's no need to ..it's a matter of how we read this..and what our time horizon is...I'm a long term gold holder..but do trade the agq and other metal related etfs...

What I recall is Merriman also saying if the $ doesn't break down it's 2008 low..70.70 first half of the year...it could mean we are in a bull market for 2-5 yrs on the dollar..the jury is still out..but the way the CME's been attacking commodities..it does give me pause that it is a possibility...and one other thing I felt was too many people are on one side of the bearishness of the dollar...that doesn't mean I am long the dollar or plan on trading it...but just like silver..too many people were on one side....and the same thing for the dollar can happen..where the demise of it..might be delayed..or maybe it doesn't happen..all I know is I cant predict the future..just manage my risk

Your input is always appreciated as well as the others here whether we are on the same side or not..we are fortunate that there are a lot of talented people here with their input..at this time..I've been in cash..just watching and monitoring..I think they are going to take the commodities down to their 200 day moving averages..before any it run..but wthdik

Best of trades to you...

TM

Edited by tradermama, 12 May 2011 - 08:31 AM.

[tradermama]

Any TA guys out there on the $..is that a cup n handle forming on the $ from around April 19/20 to now?..with the handle still needing to form?..if so, then we would be in a range probably from 74/75?..just wondering if that's what it looks like to others...I'd post the chart but I still have problems doing it here..Thanks TM

[dharma]

i try to keep things simple. i chart the dollar , i watch the dollar. @times it is correlated to the price of the metals, @times it is not. i watch the action in the metals themselves. @this point all of the mining indexes have rsi divergences:gdx, gdxj, xau, and hui i use a wilder 9bar rsi and have so since i started in this biz. a lower close today may change that. it looks to me like the miners need an up close today. silver will have daily divergences if it closes here. i think we have one more wave up left, of course i may be all wet i managed money in the 80s they paid me well. i hated it. i spent all my time on the phone talking w/clients. they would pick my brain all day long, i had no or little time for research. they had money w/me and other guys like me. and they fiddled themselves. so yesterday i had visions of that time. after the 87 crash i was short futures. i had a fairly big position. i gracefully retired. and didnt do this again until 2k. i know guys who manage money and they are paid well, believe me they earn every cent. i have great respect for those guys/gals thanks traderama now, i only manage my own $$$ , i am a lot happier. it is alot tougher than having that big cushion of income coming in. but i spend my time doing what i like. research. dharma

[tradermama]

i try to keep things simple. i chart the dollar , i watch the dollar. @times it is correlated to the price of the metals, @times it is not. i watch the action in the metals themselves.
@this point all of the mining indexes have rsi divergences:gdx, gdxj, xau, and hui i use a wilder 9bar rsi and have so since i started in this biz. a lower close today may change that. it looks to me like the miners need an up close today.
silver will have daily divergences if it closes here.
i think we have one more wave up left, of course i may be all wet

i managed money in the 80s they paid me well. i hated it. i spent all my time on the phone talking w/clients. they would pick my brain all day long, i had no or little time for research. they had money w/me and other guys like me. and they fiddled themselves. so yesterday i had visions of that time. after the 87 crash i was short futures. i had a fairly big position. i gracefully retired. and didnt do this again until 2k. i know guys who manage money and they are paid well, believe me they earn every cent. i have great respect for those guys/gals
thanks traderama
now, i only manage my own $$$ , i am a lot happier. it is alot tougher than having that big cushion of income coming in. but i spend my time doing what i like. research.
dharma

Dharma,
I can relate big time..I wasn't a stock broker but I had several businesses in the 80's and mid 90s including a real estate broker combined with being a stay at home mom...living on one income.....it's very hard to create your own income..and to try and balance being a focused mom and keep that business going.....but in 1995 I decided to get into trading and work our retirement money...My husband made the income..so my goal was to grow it..I use to do mutual fund switching and was good at it...then I decided to get into actually trading too...I lost more than I won in the beginning..but I've always had a mind of a researcher and analyst as I was also an accountant for the federal government prior to all that...I have learned by watching and practicing what others have graciously shared on forums...and learning about point and figure from Tom Dorsey..which probably was the most important thing to learn..which was managing risk..that was the number #1 mantra to learn from him..and understand why it's important to know where the supply and demand is...I'm a Capricorn..I might take 1 step back ..but always will learn from my mistakes and take 2 steps forward!...also, I do have great instincts as long as I keep the emotions out of it..which probably is a lot of traders Achilles heel.

Keep posting your thoughts as well I hope others do..what makes a great thread is to allow people to disagree with our views..because we never know what we may learn..we are going to be teachers and students constantly in our journey in life

Peace
TM