179 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

dharma:

Your 1,531 level IS the number! WOW - another "big" inflection point building here - continuation of recent trend changes or reversals:

• GOLD rejected 1st attempt at 1,531 the 61.8 Fib Level
• 10-year Treasury @ 50% Fib line now
• USD "rollover" - now first reaction low the "key reversal level" - 74.96 (for confirmation), while recent high was rejected @ 23.6% Fib
• Both Oil & Silver the two(2) "most damaged" commodities during the recent correction - break out of "solid" bottom formations with force and are now "hesitating"

Fun...fun...fun!

stubaby

[dharma]

stubaby- i have had 1531 as an inflection point since the bull market began. it is a gann technique over 1531 this am(i have posted these #s before , when we were here last time). i want to see the market close over 1531. the dollar chart monthly down to a daily chart does not look constructive. if you chart the dollar/gold you get a true picture of a store of value(since the bulls inception). dollar =debt gold=money now what? lets wait and see , the next point is 1549 several weeks left to this cycle lets see what happens. the cots, which last week were very bullish for the market come out later today. a word on silver- this is not for the faint of heart. supply is reportedly tight. watching the fibs dharma

[inamosa]

Charts are courtesy of Ross Clark. Annotations are mine except for the red boxes.


I'm expecting gold to bottom somewhere below $1300 this summer if it does indeed top in June slightly above or below $1575, as I'm anticipating.

[dharma]

i realize that i am not the sharpest knife in the drawer. i want to point out some key points that i keep my attention on: the fed is an engine of inflation all cbs are printing , monetizing their debt. fiat is all confetti valuing your wealth in fiat is a giant mistake bernake has studied the great depression , he will not make the same mistake they made back then fiat will rally one against the other,its all a mirage an illusion. the fed wants the dollar lower(dont fight the fed) dollar is in a downtrend, currencies go into trends for decades so here we, i am sure that i am forgetting some, but you catch my drift. gold = money fiat =debt @times i want to be all in the precious metals and @times i want to lighten my position. shorting a bull is a mistake going long the dollar is a mistake. yes, there are some talented traders who will be able to negotiate counter trend, for most it is a futile attempt. here and now , starting tomorrow, i am looking for a pm run. till some time in june. there is so much action in june i am not going to stick to my cycle. and i do believe that this will be the last run before a more significant correction. so, my focus will be on raising cash. i did some buying , the other day on weakness. from here on out i will sell strength . starting next week. my work coincides w/alysomji's. ie . there is a larger correction in store after this top there are so many possibilities for this top. i want to be open minded and see what the market gives. but, there will be a back up the truck event occurring, and i want to have cash for the event. new highs on this leg are not out of the question. jimmys 1650 is in range for this leg. i have no idea what is going to cause this run. but, w/o looking to far , its easy to see lots of possibilities. dharma the dollar , euro, etc will rise and fall but over the last century, the dollar has lost about 97% of its pp.

[stubaby]

dharma: Thanks, as always, for your thoughts! It appears to me that the FED needs another deflationary scare as cover for QE3 - probably to correspond to the "back up the truck event". For now, I am thinking I will try to be near my low-end allocation in the Miners, at the end of this run. Cheers, stubaby

[dougie]

June 15th significatn date? Will it be a top?

[inamosa]

dharma:

Thanks, as always, for your thoughts! It appears to me that the FED needs another deflationary scare as cover for QE3 - probably to correspond to the "back up the truck event".

For now, I am thinking I will try to be near my low-end allocation in the Miners, at the end of this run.


Cheers,

stubaby

This is my thinking currently as well, and I'm expecting the deflationary scare to get underway probably before the end of June and most likely no later than mid-July.

Before that, I'm expecting a double top in gold and a new 52-week high in US stocks.

[dharma]

dharma:

Thanks, as always, for your thoughts! It appears to me that the FED needs another deflationary scare as cover for QE3 - probably to correspond to the "back up the truck event".

For now, I am thinking I will try to be near my low-end allocation in the Miners, at the end of this run.


Cheers,

stubaby

This is my thinking currently as well, and I'm expecting the deflationary scare to get underway probably before the end of June and most likely no later than mid-July.

Before that, I'm expecting a double top in gold and a new 52-week high in US stocks.

interesting. it can very well happen like that. i do see deflation exerting its influence in the markets after this top. and i am looking for new forever highs in gold, and probably nothing else, setting up a divergent top.

this came over the wire yesterday http://www.eutimes.n...s-gold-is-gone/
no comment


i am looking for a pop today in the metals gold in particular. fiats will be butt naked before too long.
dharma

[dharma]

here we are locked in the show of a budget battle 1549 should provide some resistance 1567 next jimmys 1650 is not out of the ball park for this leg dharma

Edited by dharma, 01 June 2011 - 10:58 AM.

[johngeorge]

dharma:

Thanks, as always, for your thoughts! It appears to me that the FED needs another deflationary scare as cover for QE3 - probably to correspond to the "back up the truck event".

For now, I am thinking I will try to be near my low-end allocation in the Miners, at the end of this run.


Cheers,

stubaby

This is my thinking currently as well, and I'm expecting the deflationary scare to get underway probably before the end of June and most likely no later than mid-July.

Before that, I'm expecting a double top in gold and a new 52-week high in US stocks.

interesting. it can very well happen like that. i do see deflation exerting its influence in the markets after this top. and i am looking for new forever highs in gold, and probably nothing else, setting up a divergent top.

this came over the wire yesterday http://www.eutimes.n...s-gold-is-gone/
no comment


i am looking for a pop today in the metals gold in particular. fiats will be butt naked before too long.
dharma

dharma

Looks like you got that pop this am! Gold spot as I type is $1548 + change.