I am flat now. As a trader who has been looking for these sells for awhile. I am flat at this OS point, just as a bull might be flat at an OB juncture. If we rally hard or gap up hard, I will be disappointed, and certainly signs point to the increasing possibility of a bounce, but alas judging bottom off daily charts is tough. Could bounce now or crash to the 200dma and bounce. I do not have the skills to determine which with any degree of accuracy. Naturally, if we do not bounce, I will be ready to buy any sharp down moves for a 3-5 day swing. In looking at these charts, a couple of things standout: 1 is the shape of the slope of the +2 sigma daily BB on both RUT and SPX. It is steep and certainly not bullish. That and of course, the VIX is still quite low. I recall Cirrus's VIX above 50DMA and 50MA in up slope rule: the MA is still flat. What if it does turn up? Everybody out there knows we are OS and thinks a bounce is in the Constitution. Sentiment is quite negative though, and there will be a litany of excuses why not to get long or short. I think if I were more of a mind to be long, I would have scaled a 1/4 or a 1/3 EOD. As is, still flat. Haven't quite seen capitulation and the 200DMA in both RUT and SPX seems magnetic.
RUT WEEKLY: I posted many many times over the past few months how this divergence would play out. And so it has. And so
RUT DAILY WITH RUT MCO
SPX DAILY with NYSE MCO -- both these look ugly
ES 1440 min -- volume momentum this negative usually signals some type of bottom or temporary bottom within a few days.
NYSE ABOVE 50DMA / with SPX
NYSE ABOVE 200DMA /with SPX it occurs to me that with the 50 and 200 day issues
RUSSELL VIX daily
10 year
Edited by viccarter, 08 June 2011 - 11:42 PM.
