222 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

dougie/senor:

Gold drops less than $5, the Miners after a magnificent run-up off of a great divergent bottom where due for a pullback and it's here and it's now OVER!

I will never say NEVER, but geez!

I'm with dharma - time to be adding to positions as this "correction" unfolds.

stubaby



diogenes227: assuming you were speaking with "tongue in cheek" humor

who said it was "over"? The way you stressed that I have to assume you mean for a long time? For the near or maybe even intermediate term it's possible it's over. Once again the mining stocks underperformed gold and I'm sorry but that ain't bullish in my book. I have a clearly bearish silver wave count and with today's decline it's looking fairly decent. Senor is a trader here with stops in place on short silver trade.

NO BS

Senor

[senorBS]

my battle is w/the markets
in the short term from the recent lows, we have had 3 waves . in wave 4 here. and its the same no matter which index you are looking @xau, hui, gdx, or gdxj. longer term the highs were in december. since then we had an a-b-c, imho which bottomed @the recent bottom. @the april highs only hui made higher highs. so that is my reasoning there
gold @1480 lows shook out a significant portion of the gold community. and its price movement indicates to me we will see higher prices here and now. we are back testing the 1603 support.
silver had a mini parabolic blowoff. which in my experience needs some time to work off. i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective. if it makes new highs i will change that view.
taking profits is why we do this.
for my perspective, which is the highs for the 22month cycle will come aug/oct. not in july. that coupled w/3 waves up leads me to believe , we are not there yet. this is a wave 4 here. corrections are part of the process. i am not trading here. i am looking for a surge to finish this wave set and the 22month cycle highs.
10%of rby bought by aem . tough for the majors to keep up their output.
wearing my buy hat and using what the market gives to add to positions.
dharma

In Senor's opinion the HUI rally from June low is corrective, uno step at a time and I am making no assumptions but prices could go south below that June low. I am a trader here and nothing more, I am short silver with a profitable stop in place. I'll get out of shorts and maybe even go long if market gives me a reason to, right now it's giving me reasons to stay negative.

BSing away

Senor

[dougie]

stubaby: dont want to speak for diogenes but i dont think his post was tongue in cheek at all: he was showing a big negative divergence in miners and metal and I concur with senor: this isnt THE top as far as I know, (though stranger things have happened) this is A top perhaps i want to see hui take out 610

[dougie]

Dont get this dharma: you say i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective but you want it to have 5 waves up? quote name='dharma' date='Jul 28 2011, 09:36 AM' post='586698'] my battle is w/the markets in the short term from the recent lows, we have had 3 waves . in wave 4 here. and its the same no matter which index you are looking @xau, hui, gdx, or gdxj. longer term the highs were in december. since then we had an a-b-c, imho which bottomed @the recent bottom. @the april highs only hui made higher highs. so that is my reasoning there gold @1480 lows shook out a significant portion of the gold community. and its price movement indicates to me we will see higher prices here and now. we are back testing the 1603 support. silver had a mini parabolic blowoff. which in my experience needs some time to work off. i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective. if it makes new highs i will change that view. taking profits is why we do this. for my perspective, which is the highs for the 22month cycle will come aug/oct. not in july. that coupled w/3 waves up leads me to believe , we are not there yet. this is a wave 4 here. corrections are part of the process. i am not trading here. i am looking for a surge to finish this wave set and the 22month cycle highs. 10%of rby bought by aem . tough for the majors to keep up their output. wearing my buy hat and using what the market gives to add to positions. dharma [/quote]

[stubaby]

Dont get this dharma: you say i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective
but you want it to have 5 waves up?



quote name='dharma' date='Jul 28 2011, 09:36 AM' post='586698']
my battle is w/the markets
in the short term from the recent lows, we have had 3 waves . in wave 4 here. and its the same no matter which index you are looking @xau, hui, gdx, or gdxj. longer term the highs were in december. since then we had an a-b-c, imho which bottomed @the recent bottom. @the april highs only hui made higher highs. so that is my reasoning there
gold @1480 lows shook out a significant portion of the gold community. and its price movement indicates to me we will see higher prices here and now. we are back testing the 1603 support.
silver had a mini parabolic blowoff. which in my experience needs some time to work off. i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective. if it makes new highs i will change that view.
taking profits is why we do this.
for my perspective, which is the highs for the 22month cycle will come aug/oct. not in july. that coupled w/3 waves up leads me to believe , we are not there yet. this is a wave 4 here. corrections are part of the process. i am not trading here. i am looking for a surge to finish this wave set and the 22month cycle highs.
10%of rby bought by aem . tough for the majors to keep up their output.
wearing my buy hat and using what the market gives to add to positions.
dharma

dougie:

dharma was speaking of Silver only as corrective - as for your previous comment on HUI - your only asking for a new high for confirmation? I'll take holding here between 530-540 or better and then a move above 587.38. Per dharma - I see this as Wave 4 and am looking for 625+ on the next impulse.

stubaby

[dharma]

Dont get this dharma: you say i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective
but you want it to have 5 waves up?



quote name='dharma' date='Jul 28 2011, 09:36 AM' post='586698']
my battle is w/the markets
in the short term from the recent lows, we have had 3 waves . in wave 4 here. and its the same no matter which index you are looking @xau, hui, gdx, or gdxj. longer term the highs were in december. since then we had an a-b-c, imho which bottomed @the recent bottom. @the april highs only hui made higher highs. so that is my reasoning there
gold @1480 lows shook out a significant portion of the gold community. and its price movement indicates to me we will see higher prices here and now. we are back testing the 1603 support.
silver had a mini parabolic blowoff. which in my experience needs some time to work off. i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective. if it makes new highs i will change that view.
taking profits is why we do this.
for my perspective, which is the highs for the 22month cycle will come aug/oct. not in july. that coupled w/3 waves up leads me to believe , we are not there yet. this is a wave 4 here. corrections are part of the process. i am not trading here. i am looking for a surge to finish this wave set and the 22month cycle highs.
10%of rby bought by aem . tough for the majors to keep up their output.
wearing my buy hat and using what the market gives to add to positions.
dharma

dougie:

dharma was speaking of Silver only as corrective - as for your previous comment on HUI - your only asking for a new high for confirmation? I'll take holding here between 530-540 or better and then a move above 587.38. Per dharma - I see this as Wave 4 and am looking for 625+ on the next impulse.

stubaby

thanks for the clarification.
yes, that is what i am saying and we are in the same boat
i love markets, you have guys who are short , guys who took profits, and guys who are long. of course the market can reward them all. its a matter of timing.
this wave down will end. i have the turn as 8/3. i am in here buying the stuff others are throwing away. thank you.
there will be a debt resolution. which signifies nothing. when they start dealing w/the debt , then we are talking. all political posturing. the lot of em are not worth their jackets and ties. and i hope their constituents wake up!
dharma

[dougie]

well 526 better hold...
what would turn you bearish here? I see all sorts of rationalizing, but the miners have GONE NOWHERE in a VERY LONG TIME

Dont get this dharma: you say i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective
but you want it to have 5 waves up?



quote name='dharma' date='Jul 28 2011, 09:36 AM' post='586698']
my battle is w/the markets
in the short term from the recent lows, we have had 3 waves . in wave 4 here. and its the same no matter which index you are looking @xau, hui, gdx, or gdxj. longer term the highs were in december. since then we had an a-b-c, imho which bottomed @the recent bottom. @the april highs only hui made higher highs. so that is my reasoning there
gold @1480 lows shook out a significant portion of the gold community. and its price movement indicates to me we will see higher prices here and now. we are back testing the 1603 support.
silver had a mini parabolic blowoff. which in my experience needs some time to work off. i have been and continue to look @this wave up as corrective. if it makes new highs i will change that view.
taking profits is why we do this.
for my perspective, which is the highs for the 22month cycle will come aug/oct. not in july. that coupled w/3 waves up leads me to believe , we are not there yet. this is a wave 4 here. corrections are part of the process. i am not trading here. i am looking for a surge to finish this wave set and the 22month cycle highs.
10%of rby bought by aem . tough for the majors to keep up their output.
wearing my buy hat and using what the market gives to add to positions.
dharma

dougie:

dharma was speaking of Silver only as corrective - as for your previous comment on HUI - your only asking for a new high for confirmation? I'll take holding here between 530-540 or better and then a move above 587.38. Per dharma - I see this as Wave 4 and am looking for 625+ on the next impulse.

stubaby

[dougie]

sentiment is excessively bullish, miners diverging negatively, gold far above 200, is this what is called not climbing the wall of worry?

[senorBS]

sentiment is excessively bullish, miners diverging negatively, gold far above 200,
is this what is called not climbing the wall of worry?

IMO Dougie gold is headed to a bueno top, does it blow off another 50 or 100 pesodollars is the importante question. I exited my ZSL for a bueno gain, just watching the show and getting the late afternoon margs ready.

BSing away

Senor

[dharma]

i dont drink! ever! hourly divergences in all the mining indexes. the turn date kicks in next week. gold breaking 1621 indicates it wants higher. breaking above 1640 confirms that in my opinion. i am buying, nothing has been violated in the miners. as is my experience they are taking the path laid out by the broads. yes, there will be a top and it will come from higher levels. and i am putting my money where my mouth is on the miners. dharma