29 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Although we did not get even a mini-capitulation, it seems like the operators are reserving it later in the summer. Nothing has changed in my view for July. I still think we will see a build-up for the end of the month rally and it is slowly gathering the strength as the govts are trying to secure their national finances. I still expect one more low later next week, but obviously it is a news driven market for now...

I guess DC was right, IBM's AH rally also helps, it looks like the wedge break and reversal was good enough to accumulate enough short interest to squeeze. I would like to see 1312 cleared (tested from above) for a confirmation here. I am not sure this is the late 12-13 day cycle low or it already happened in one of the sharp squeezes from last week. Certainly, we are in a congestion zone and the first break lower is being bought back up, or perhaps simply inflated back up. The next low should be around early next week and hence, this rally can hang in there for a few days.

I did not have much faith in Friday's closing rally, but this is now a better setup. It did find support where I thought it would, so now let's see whether this is the real deal to test the upper resistance areas around 1335-1340...

Best of luck.

Edited by arbman, 19 July 2011 - 02:10 AM.

[orange]

Yea, I think you are right. If we open above the yesterday high, I'd be willing to go long on the morning dip.

I'm going to be annoyed if the market plays the plan. I never took up longs. There was a bunch of accumulation before the break. Even after the break, we are going to reclaim it. It's going to be easy to produce a squeeze from here me thinks.

Edit: If bears cant hold ES below 1307 before morning, they are cooked.
I think this market is headed to 1340...

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=585422

Edited by orange, 19 July 2011 - 02:24 AM.

[arbman]

I went long around 1300 near the close and I closed remaining tiny bit of shorts after the spike over 1301-1302 zone. It trades around 1307 right now, if this is it, we should not see any trades lower...

[Pricewatcher]

I went long around 1300 near the close and I closed remaining tiny bit of shorts after the spike over 1301-1302 zone. It trades around 1307 right now, if this is it, we should not see any trades lower...

I am still short and I would wait until 1315-1320ish on SPX is taken out to flip long. This may just be a minor bounce.

[dasein]

another indication

http://www.stocktimi...arketUpdate.htm

[Rogerdodger]

NYSE looks like a back kiss of the broken downtrend line while MCO is fairly oversold.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 July 2011 - 08:12 AM.

[relax]

RD, that chart says rally or august 2007 opex;-

[Echo]

NYSE looks like a back kiss of the broken downtrend line while MCO is fairly oversold.

NYA bounced the 200 ma yest

Doc

[arbman]

I cashed out with 12-13 points at 1313... Probably a pull back is a buy, but the pull backs have been too deep recently as there is less liquidity... This rally seems to be limited to 1317-1318 zone for the time being, probably more consolidation is needed...

Edited by arbman, 19 July 2011 - 09:00 AM.

[arbman]

The banks are once again barely positive... This is unbelievable for the amount of money injected, gold and energy are about to fly off the chart...