222 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

martin armstrong on gold. i always read what marty has to say. provacative
http://www.martinarm... 09-15-2011.pdf
take a look @that 1st chart of the gold/silver ratio. folks today, while they know alot more than i do, want you to believe that the ratio is constant @16:1 , it is not the case. take a look @the depression from 1929-32 the ratio shot up. imo that is the case here. i am not looking for the ratio to go to 16:1 any time soon. not a good bet imho.
dharma

dharma:

And another "Bearish" view:

Peak Theories

stubaby

i dont know either of these technicians. were they bullish on gold? did they miss the move.? and now they are here to call the top!
more important to me is where do you stand? do you bring these up because..................
the chorus of top callers out there is loud. i hate crowds anyway. when my work says change i will change until then, i am a tick on the bulls back
dharma

dharma:

I see no top now - sometime before the end of 1st quarter 2012 - yes. I expect the trendline she points out (re: Diamond formation) at 1,882 WILL be recaptured and her 2,100 upside target for BULLISH resolution of such pattern to be exeeded and the pattern to disappear!

However, as a chartist I always respect potential developing patterns (BULLISH and BEARISH) as I have learned the hard way over the years NOT to ignore them. So I watch them for confirmation or disproval - they are what they are - and what will be will be!

We both know this "mini-parabolic" will end, but will only be a precurser to the real parabolic move that will follow after a "healthy" corrective sequence. Given the present state of the "sovereign debt crisis" I expect Europe's pending implosion will lead directly and immediatley back to the "US issues", which have magically disappeared from the radar in less than a month's timespan! This 1-2 punch lies directly ahead and pretty soon in a few short years we will hear the chorus (simular to the Japanese miracle) that "China owns everthing"!

Have a great weekend!

stubaby

[dharma]

martin armstrong on gold. i always read what marty has to say. provacative
http://www.martinarm... 09-15-2011.pdf
take a look @that 1st chart of the gold/silver ratio. folks today, while they know alot more than i do, want you to believe that the ratio is constant @16:1 , it is not the case. take a look @the depression from 1929-32 the ratio shot up. imo that is the case here. i am not looking for the ratio to go to 16:1 any time soon. not a good bet imho.
dharma

dharma:

And another "Bearish" view:

Peak Theories

stubaby

i dont know either of these technicians. were they bullish on gold? did they miss the move.? and now they are here to call the top!
more important to me is where do you stand? do you bring these up because..................
the chorus of top callers out there is loud. i hate crowds anyway. when my work says change i will change until then, i am a tick on the bulls back
dharma

dharma:

I see no top now - sometime before the end of 1st quarter 2012 - yes. I expect the trendline she points out (re: Diamond formation) at 1,882 WILL be recaptured and her 2,100 upside target for BULLISH resolution of such pattern to be exeeded and the pattern to disappear!

However, as a chartist I always respect potential developing patterns (BULLISH and BEARISH) as I have learned the hard way over the years NOT to ignore them. So I watch them for confirmation or disproval - they are what they are - and what will be will be!

We both know this "mini-parabolic" will end, but will only be a precurser to the real parabolic move that will follow after a "healthy" corrective sequence. Given the present state of the "sovereign debt crisis" I expect Europe's pending implosion will lead directly and immediatley back to the "US issues", which have magically disappeared from the radar in less than a month's timespan! This 1-2 punch lies directly ahead and pretty soon in a few short years we will hear the chorus (simular to the Japanese miracle) that "China owns everthing"!

Have a great weekend!

stubaby

thanks stubaby. that means alot more to me, then 2 obscure technicicans .
china is in a position to own alot more of the world of finance. i am not ready to give up on the west , this game has alot more twists and turns. it is never ever easy. our system needs to evolve.
until then from all my studies, gold is the place to be.
dharma

[dharma]

monday morning and the smell of napalm is thick. every day the reality of the debt crises comes to the fore. in the next couple of years, i have no doubt the western world will be printing. what happens on the 21st is the question. i am a technician and i use the charts as a guide. but i also keep a watchful eye on the fundamentals. and @this juncture it boils down to the fed. w/o some printing the broads crash. we are in crash season and the pattern on the broads is a bear flag. a crash will not be bullish for the metals. now, maybe this time is the exception-not a bet i would take. i am positioned and waiting dharma this bashing the rich and asking them to pay their fair share is interesting. the culprit isnt the rich. its government being irresponsible and spending more than it makes. socialism does not work. it takes away motivation.

[stubaby]

monday morning and the smell of napalm is thick. every day the reality of the debt crises comes to the fore. in the next couple of years, i have no doubt the western world will be printing. what happens on the 21st is the question. i am a technician and i use the charts as a guide. but i also keep a watchful eye on the fundamentals. and @this juncture it boils down to the fed. w/o some printing the broads crash. we are in crash season and the pattern on the broads is a bear flag. a crash will not be bullish for the metals. now, maybe this time is the exception-not a bet i would take. i am positioned and waiting
dharma
this bashing the rich and asking them to pay their fair share is interesting. the culprit isnt the rich. its government being irresponsible and spending more than it makes. socialism does not work. it takes away motivation.

dharma:

It's early in the day ......but:

SPX -2.0%
Gold -2.27%
Silver -2.99%
GDX +0.05%
HUI +0.31%

WOW!!!!

stubaby

[dharma]

nothing revealed today. forever waiting. dharma

[dharma]

the show is tomorrow @2:15 ny time. this is all sound and fury. honestly i dont know what to expect from the fed, sure longer term they are going to debase. right here right now, i dont know, though i suspect they will continue to debase the dollar. after all , it has been going on since the feds inception. and has accelerated since w. ben has been put in , as fed head , to debase. it is philosophy. my charts, the seasonals, and the amount of capital being poured into the mining sector to build infrastructure, indicates to me that we are going higher here, and maybe alot higher. we backtested support yesterday, and took off this am. i am satisfied w/my positions so i am in hold mode. over the last 10 years the price of gold has gone from 250 to 1800 today. miners have not appreciated to the extent that gold has, no i do not think mining is a bad biz. i think it is an unrecognized potential. in the last phase of the bull , the miners will get some mojo. patience. recognition is coming. today gold is up 25 , now compared to 250 that is 10% move from the lows, volatility is increasing and it will increase alot more. i dont think this is a trend, but crude remains weak , which will be a boon to miners. down the inflationary road, oil will take on a life of its own. as will the broad stock market. we are in the early innings of the sovereign debt crises, do not take your eye off that ball. all the talk is a distraction. rabbits are not pulled out of hats. these sovereigns , especially the ones in the euro will not be able to inflate the debt away, it will never ever be repaid. germany, after ww1 was saddled w/rebuilding the country and paying back war reparations. as industrious as the german people are , they could not pay off both. the situation led to hitler and a morally and financially bankrupt nation. one by one these debt ridden sovereigns will default. and that is the issue compound that w/ banks that are not marking their holdings to market. and the facade of a healthy banking sector is presented. when the sovereigns and the banks are hitting the skids fear of survival, base fear will be present. game will be on for the precious. that is blue skies for the metals. it will be tough , but when there is only blue skies it will be time to find the exit. its the same cycle over and over again. the question is where do i put my resources then!!!??? for now it doesnt take much vision to see all this happening. back in 01 etc it did. now not patience keep your eyes on the sovereigns and the banks it is a facade! dharma

[stubaby]

monday morning and the smell of napalm is thick. every day the reality of the debt crises comes to the fore. in the next couple of years, i have no doubt the western world will be printing. what happens on the 21st is the question. i am a technician and i use the charts as a guide. but i also keep a watchful eye on the fundamentals. and @this juncture it boils down to the fed. w/o some printing the broads crash. we are in crash season and the pattern on the broads is a bear flag. a crash will not be bullish for the metals. now, maybe this time is the exception-not a bet i would take. i am positioned and waiting
dharma
this bashing the rich and asking them to pay their fair share is interesting. the culprit isnt the rich. its government being irresponsible and spending more than it makes. socialism does not work. it takes away motivation.

dharma:

It's early in the day ......but:

SPX -2.0%
Gold -2.27%
Silver -2.99%
GDX +0.05%
HUI +0.31%

WOW!!!!

stubaby

Chart of the Day:

Finally a breakout on weekly chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&i=p10211120851&a=204993829&r=639.png


stubaby

[dougie]

yep i bet that weekly will hold too time for some action run to 76 gdx in progress, then a pause or serious retrace

[dharma]

well here we are nothing revealed . the ball is in the feds court. the swiss gave up. miners are set to explode dharma

[JGUITARSLIM]

Here's one for the top callers....

Reuters reported that CEO Richard O'Brien said that he expects gold prices to hit $2,300 per ounce by next year. Newmont grew earnings 31%, 25%, 30%, 42% and 35% in the past five years and is expected to grow EPS 30% this year. No other gold stock has grown EPS 25% or more in each of the past five years.

Edited by JGUITARSLIM, 20 September 2011 - 05:43 PM.