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[arbman]

I thought this week would most likely close down or as a doji. I think the downside action has been weak. The bears are not still in control. However, the market is not exhibiting the proper leadership either. RUT was not performing better during the consolidation. Among sectors, the energy and financials pretty much kept the large cap indices resilient. So, although more upside is possible here, the chances are the downside will eventually be the resolution into December's coming major cycle low. This is more or less consistent with my analysis since the lows. I think the market continues to remain in a range under 1250, but with a slight upside bias as it continues to consolidate. Overall, I think the market should be closer to the top of the range than its bottom for the intermediate term and I expect a top over the next 3-8 sessions. Seasonally, the next few sessions should continue to consolidate and rally for the end of next week into the first few sessions of November. But I would focus on selling short another spike higher than immediately here...

Edited by arbman, 21 October 2011 - 06:06 AM.