17 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Hello Rodger, since you brought up Terry Laundry's T, I presume you are a subscriber to his service. I am just wondering if you are finding it of much value. Terry's performance last year was very abysmal - to say the least. I recall he called May high the bottom rather than the top, he called Aug low the start of a massive down trend when it was the start of a massive bull trend, he called Oct range bound action the start of another leg down rather than the massive breakout we saw, and he predicted a null echo low in late Dec that never occurred. He did eventually revise his top call to May 2011 (which turned out to be correct). His short term T's included volume oscillator, advance decline oscillator, subsequently Parker's MFI T. Since then I believe he's introduced Ringing Cycle, C Cycle etc etc. His T's is also capable of collapsing on the right hand side.

I don't have a problem if Terry changes his methodology and revise them for the better. However he's never quite explained how he moved from one T to another T and never even acknowledged prior misreading. Given now that he's running a paid service, I am not sure if things are better in that regard. What's your take?

I do like his T Theory and I believe it has a lot of potential. While I trade short term actions using market profile, I do like having a longer timeframe picture and I was hoping T Theory would provide that. I am considering subscribing to his service but I'd like to see if anyone has had any experience before doing so.

I find Laundry's work interesting, and pretty good in the longer term.
I can't get the hang of Elliot waves and all the various rules and permutations involved.
Likewise, I imagine that Laundry's work is difficult for others to figure out.
Like tuning forks, we all seem to respond to differing wavelengths and different techniques.

Remember that Terry's company trades mainly treasuries and corporate bonds, so it's not necessarily a site for day traders.
It's more akin to IBD's signals, used by Tuffy 88 among others.
Remember that Tuffy88 seldom traded and then simply shifted between SPY and SHY, as I remember.

Laundry uses a variety of techniques gleaned from the past 30 years.
The T theory is accompanied by "ringing cycle lows," "Mega-Ts," "accumulation patterns" based on A/D data, "confidence indicators", a "Best Bond Strategy," "Arms Sell Warnings" and envelop levels related to Hurst's work, among others.
Also remember that several T's can be in effect at the same time, much as cycles of various magnitudes can be.
So for an occasional reader, it can be confusing.

For many months he had projected the April 28th end of a Mega-T #3, which was actually identified by Peter Eliades.
(We are still down well over 100 SPX points since, and generally following a pattern of the 2007 Mega-T #2 which made a lower high before failing.)

Since the March 2009 bottom he had identified what might be called a rogue wave, a 15 week (edit) "ringing cycle low," most recently predicted to hit in early October. Original measurements aimed at around Oct. 6th however using his Volume Oscillator, he identified a slightly earlier "accumulation pattern" and offered a special update:

Oct 4th:
Special Update: Confirmed new T starting with Accumulation Pattern
You should not disregard this.

(The SPX is now up 100 points since this Special Update.)

Oct 5th: As per my Audio summary earlier, my Tuesday bulletin noting a new Accumulation low on Tuesday that should produce a new T, has been confirmed today by a strong finish in the equity market.

Oct 14th: Today we saw technical evidence that the market wants to move from its present position, sitting just above the mid-channel black line in the daily chart, to the upper red envelope.

So that's where we are in T Theory.
Not too shabby.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 October 2011 - 12:41 PM.

[Dex]

Roger, I agree with much of what you say. I've been listening to his weekly info and just joined his forum. I think people have to separate out the aspects of his work. The major parts are T Theory (Mega and other Ts), ringing cycles (15 weeks?) and confidence indicator. All of these can be used independently. He and Parker are introducing other studies into his work and this can be confusing. Overall I think it is a good tool for keeping focused on the overall trend.

[Rogerdodger]

ringing cycles (15 weeks?)

Sorry but I was doing a re-model till after midnight last night, so half the brain cells are still in the grout.
I think it is around 15 weeks, just over 3 months (not the 5 weeks I originally said above):
http://stockcharts.c...t?obj=ID4511625

Also, after reading Terry for years, I know that sentiment often influences his opinion as far as what he expects.
However sentiment does not effect the chart.
For example at the March '09 low, his charts gave a buy signal but his personal sentiment said that we would go lower, which we did not.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p86417550408&a=234727006&r=119.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 October 2011 - 12:45 PM.

[boruseek]

RD, were the special updates reserved for the subscribers of TTheory Pro or for everyone in his forum?

[Dex]

Also, after reading Terry for years, I know that sentiment often influences his opinion as far as what he expects.
However sentiment does not effect the chart.
For example at the March '09 low, his charts gave a buy signal but his personal sentiment said that we would go lower, which we did not.

Yes, that is true. It does swing both ways. I think his recent observations have been on target.

[risk_management]

As I mentioned many times, I think his core ideas have a lot of value. I will always appreciate that you introduced that work here. On the other hand, have you seen anything from Parker that actually works?

[csw2002]

Rodger, if I sum up your observations correctly, you are saying that Terry's work has merits but we need to interpret them ourselves as Terry's judgement tends to be clouded by the market sentiment. I listened to his T Theory observations for a couple of years until tuning out in Dec 2010. I did note at the time that he called for a May top in 2011. I suppose the issue is often that which one of his T's or cycles are dominant? As far as I know, he's not given any clear guidelines and that makes interpreting his work independently difficult. BTW, are you a pro subscriber to his service or just a standard subscriber to his forum + encyclopedia subscription?

[Rogerdodger]

RD, were the special updates reserved for the subscribers of TTheory Pro or for everyone in his forum?

Yes. That's why I have not offered his recent opinions beyond what's on his public site: http://www.ttheory.c...bservations.php

Terry's work has merits but we need to interpret them ourselves

Kinda like all the e-wavers with different interpretations.

BTW, are you a pro subscriber to his service or just a standard subscriber to his forum + encyclopedia subscription?

HELLO! PRO $1,000 subscriber?

I'm the guy who has been using the same razor blade since January 11, 2011!
However, I did fork over the $99 (or whatever) for the year out of curiosity.

Please don't tell Clark Howard.
He will be so disappointed in me.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 October 2011 - 09:57 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Here's Islander's opinion of the Pro Service.:

Traveling in China, but I look in from time to time. The mention of Terry L deserves a quick response.
The Pro Service is less than promised, loaded with a lot of "new things" and it seems to maybe Parker is the real creator/rationally creator.
Not too enthused with T theory and at $950, plus $450 for the master manual, it looks suspiciously like a harvesting period in Terry's life.
Best Islander

[csw2002]

Rodger, it sounds like you are just using his forum. Are you able to follow Terry's updates without purchasing his T-Theory Encyclopedia?