72 replies to this topic

[Ken]

May I ask you in your opinion how accurate do you think his exact reversal dates are compared to the plus/minus window?

Hi TM, Happy Thanksgiving to you too!

According to Merriman, he claims the geocosmic reversal dates do reverse 81% of the time. The other 19% of the time the trend accelerates in the same direction or nothing happens. Keep in mind that even if the trend does reverse the duration of the reversal depends on where we are in the cycles. Sometimes when the trend reverses it only lasts for a couple of weeks or it can last for months.

The solar-lunar reversal dates for silver are accurate about 67% if I recall correctly.

I notice that the precious metals did reverse on Nov 22nd which was one of Merriman's geocosmic reversal dates. But now the metals are dropping again as I write this. However, Merriman has another geocosmic reversal date on Fri, Nov 25th so maybe the precious metals will put in a low before that date or on the 25th.

Ken

[tradermama]

May I ask you in your opinion how accurate do you think his exact reversal dates are compared to the plus/minus window?

Hi TM, Happy Thanksgiving to you too!

According to Merriman, he claims the geocosmic reversal dates do reverse 81% of the time. The other 19% of the time the trend accelerates in the same direction or nothing happens. Keep in mind that even if the trend does reverse the duration of the reversal depends on where we are in the cycles. Sometimes when the trend reverses it only lasts for a couple of weeks or it can last for months.

The solar-lunar reversal dates for silver are accurate about 67% if I recall correctly.

I notice that the precious metals did reverse on Nov 22nd which was one of Merriman's geocosmic reversal dates. But now the metals are dropping again as I write this. However, Merriman has another geocosmic reversal date on Fri, Nov 25th so maybe the precious metals will put in a low before that date or on the 25th.

Ken

Thanks Ken. So, are you saying 81% on the exact dates or the window of plus/minus 3. I bought his last book volume 5 on the Ultimate Book of STock Market Timing. I"m still a beginner when it comes to understanding the cycles but I'm getting there. The most important thing I learned is that when you have a longer term cycle as he feels gold is hitting a 4 yr cycle low ..the first half is the most bullish.
TM

[Ken]

Thanks Ken. So, are you saying 81% on the exact dates or the window of plus/minus 3. I bought his last book volume 5 on the Ultimate Book of STock Market Timing. I"m still a beginner when it comes to understanding the cycles but I'm getting there. The most important thing I learned is that when you have a longer term cycle as he feels gold is hitting a 4 yr cycle low ..the first half is the most bullish.

The 81% accuracy rate is based on the window of plus/minus 3 trading days.

Yes, regarding cycles the first smaller cycle within a larger cycle is the most bullish.

As of Merriman's most recent weekly gold and silver report (Sun, Nov 20th) it's his opinion that the 34 month and 17 month cycle lows for gold are in as of September 26th but it's still too early to really tell for sure. If the 34 month cycle low has not been completed yet then the price target for gold is $1415.70 +/- $60.00 and should occur in the next 6 to 14 weeks when the primary cycle low is due.

It is also Merriman's opinion that silver will form a half-primary cycle low this week which would be a buy. However, be careful. Again Merriman believes silver formed its 36 month cycle low on Sept 26th at $26.15 (the 36 month cycle low is due Oct 2011 +/- 6 months), however, if the low is still unfolding over the coming weeks then the downside price target for silver is $21.07 +/- $3.40.

[tradermama]

Thanks Ken. So, are you saying 81% on the exact dates or the window of plus/minus 3. I bought his last book volume 5 on the Ultimate Book of STock Market Timing. I"m still a beginner when it comes to understanding the cycles but I'm getting there. The most important thing I learned is that when you have a longer term cycle as he feels gold is hitting a 4 yr cycle low ..the first half is the most bullish.

The 81% accuracy rate is based on the window of plus/minus 3 trading days.

Yes, regarding cycles the first smaller cycle within a larger cycle is the most bullish.

As of Merriman's most recent weekly gold and silver report (Sun, Nov 20th) it's his opinion that the 34 month and 17 month cycle lows for gold are in as of September 26th but it's still too early to really tell for sure. If the 34 month cycle low has not been completed yet then the price target for gold is $1415.70 +/- $60.00 and should occur in the next 6 to 14 weeks when the primary cycle low is due.

It is also Merriman's opinion that silver will form a half-primary cycle low this week which would be a buy. However, be careful. Again Merriman believes silver formed its 36 month cycle low on Sept 26th at $26.15 (the 36 month cycle low is due Oct 2011 +/- 6 months), however, if the low is still unfolding over the coming weeks then the downside price target for silver is $21.07 +/- $3.40.

Thanks Ken, I guess his bias for Dec 9 to buy that low then changed...is that correct? I know there is a window from Nov 14- Dec 16th but his monthly newsletter had the bias for the 9th. Like you said, who knows..this is why TA will rule but I do want to understand cycles more.
TM

[Ken]

Thanks Ken. So, are you saying 81% on the exact dates or the window of plus/minus 3. I bought his last book volume 5 on the Ultimate Book of STock Market Timing. I"m still a beginner when it comes to understanding the cycles but I'm getting there. The most important thing I learned is that when you have a longer term cycle as he feels gold is hitting a 4 yr cycle low ..the first half is the most bullish.

The 81% accuracy rate is based on the window of plus/minus 3 trading days.

Yes, regarding cycles the first smaller cycle within a larger cycle is the most bullish.

As of Merriman's most recent weekly gold and silver report (Sun, Nov 20th) it's his opinion that the 34 month and 17 month cycle lows for gold are in as of September 26th but it's still too early to really tell for sure. If the 34 month cycle low has not been completed yet then the price target for gold is $1415.70 +/- $60.00 and should occur in the next 6 to 14 weeks when the primary cycle low is due.

It is also Merriman's opinion that silver will form a half-primary cycle low this week which would be a buy. However, be careful. Again Merriman believes silver formed its 36 month cycle low on Sept 26th at $26.15 (the 36 month cycle low is due Oct 2011 +/- 6 months), however, if the low is still unfolding over the coming weeks then the downside price target for silver is $21.07 +/- $3.40.

Thanks Ken, I guess his bias for Dec 9 to buy that low then changed...is that correct? I know there is a window from Nov 14- Dec 16th but his monthly newsletter had the bias for the 9th. Like you said, who knows..this is why TA will rule but I do want to understand cycles more.
TM

I very quickly looked at Merriman's most recent monthly report (Nov 8, 2011) and it reads "Our outlook is for a decline to a half-primary cycle trough by December 9 in Silver." He's advising his subscribers to buy and go long this week. We have three geocosmic reversal dates between now and Dec 9th. Nov 21-22, Nov 25 and Dec 7-8. Anyone one of those 3 geocosmic reversal dates could be the primary cycle low by December 9th. So he's not necessarily looking for the low on Dec 9th just by the 9th.

He also stated in the most recent monthly report, "My view is that Silver is headed down into a 7-11 week half-primary cycle trough due November 14-December 16." So we may have already had the half-primary cycle low on Nov 21st or it could be coming up right now on Fri, Nov 25th or it might be Dec 7-8. In any event, we should all be looking to buy very soon. I myself have gone partially long silver and will add more this week.

[tradermama]

Thanks Ken. So, are you saying 81% on the exact dates or the window of plus/minus 3. I bought his last book volume 5 on the Ultimate Book of STock Market Timing. I"m still a beginner when it comes to understanding the cycles but I'm getting there. The most important thing I learned is that when you have a longer term cycle as he feels gold is hitting a 4 yr cycle low ..the first half is the most bullish.

The 81% accuracy rate is based on the window of plus/minus 3 trading days.

Yes, regarding cycles the first smaller cycle within a larger cycle is the most bullish.

As of Merriman's most recent weekly gold and silver report (Sun, Nov 20th) it's his opinion that the 34 month and 17 month cycle lows for gold are in as of September 26th but it's still too early to really tell for sure. If the 34 month cycle low has not been completed yet then the price target for gold is $1415.70 +/- $60.00 and should occur in the next 6 to 14 weeks when the primary cycle low is due.

It is also Merriman's opinion that silver will form a half-primary cycle low this week which would be a buy. However, be careful. Again Merriman believes silver formed its 36 month cycle low on Sept 26th at $26.15 (the 36 month cycle low is due Oct 2011 +/- 6 months), however, if the low is still unfolding over the coming weeks then the downside price target for silver is $21.07 +/- $3.40.

Thanks Ken, I guess his bias for Dec 9 to buy that low then changed...is that correct? I know there is a window from Nov 14- Dec 16th but his monthly newsletter had the bias for the 9th. Like you said, who knows..this is why TA will rule but I do want to understand cycles more.
TM

I very quickly looked at Merriman's most recent monthly report (Nov 8, 2011) and it reads "Our outlook is for a decline to a half-primary cycle trough by December 9 in Silver." He's advising his subscribers to buy and go long this week. We have three geocosmic reversal dates between now and Dec 9th. Nov 21-22, Nov 25 and Dec 7-8. Anyone one of those 3 geocosmic reversal dates could be the primary cycle low by December 9th. So he's not necessarily looking for the low on Dec 9th just by the 9th.

He also stated in the most recent monthly report, "My view is that Silver is headed down into a 7-11 week half-primary cycle trough due November 14-December 16." So we may have already had the half-primary cycle low on Nov 21st or it could be coming up right now on Fri, Nov 25th or it might be Dec 7-8. In any event, we should all be looking to buy very soon. I myself have gone partially long silver and will add more this week.

Thanks Ken. And again Happy THanksgiving. Also watch Jackie CHan's charts on Stockcharts for SLV when the macd gets close to a turning up and past resistance. I find this very useful too.
http://stockcharts.c...t...04&cmd=show[s185012075]&disp=O



TM

Edited by tradermama, 23 November 2011 - 10:04 AM.

[dharma]

ken and traderama, good discussion. i watch cycles and i use wilders rsi in conjunction. but it doesnt matter which oscillator one uses. as long as they are familiar w/the nuances of that oscillator. i also shorten the time up on the wilder rsi to 9bar. i have found that for catching bottoms in bulls it is more effective. that being said cycles invert, accelerate, and change direction. its difficult to know in advance which it will be. i also use gann techniques to figure out price cycles. gann used significant highs and lows to see how these are affecting the present price. in bull markets the most significant is the low. so , using price cycles in conjunction w/time cycles and planetary influences gives the highest % of hits. i think 5of 3 occurs this week and then we have a rally that fails and the low occurs on or near the 8th. i dont think 1600 gets violated. silver is way too volatile for me to base my trading on. it will provide one wild ride. just my 2c. i just think one needs as many tools as possible to produce an elephant gun. because @times different tools are lead dog. if you look @ a chart of heating oil going back into the 80s there was a period of about 6months where it went into a perfect fibonocci. i hit each and every turn almost to the penny. it wasnt that i was good, i just happened upon what the market was doing and i hit single after single after single. stay flexible. and keep investigating. sometimes you get lucky and hit a period like that. i am older now, so i mostly just ride dharma

[stubaby]

of course neither of us know except in retrospect.
i see this over by dec 8, @the latest
i think C is a simple 5 wave move, we finished 3of 3 of 5 yesterday. 4of 3 here . then 5of 3 then 5.
just my 2c
dharma

dharma:

Looks like Wave 4 completes tomorrow and then Wave 5.
http://stockcharts.c...4560&r=5062.png

Based on the parallels betwwen Waves 1 & 3 and your Dec 8th low target date - looks like Wave 5 will extend:
http://stockcharts.c...6063&r=6973.png

stubaby

[gismeu]

Hi there,

in trying to keep it simple ...

see chart here http://i931.photobuc...lysomelines.jpg

I'd go long with confidence once the 50 MA is broken to the upside and SLV broke through the pink line!

gis

[gismeu]

P.S. 50 MA is currently at 32.08 gis