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STOCKS (2012 - 1Q) - new updates


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#1 Master Che

Master Che

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Posted 17 January 2012 - 08:55 AM

1/17/12 Updates from the previous stock forecasts (1/10/12) NOW = 1/17/12 BK: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Very Bearish Down to 15.70 although beforehand up to 21.80 (max) more likely up to 21.33 20.09 is the key support NOW: We reached EXACTLY 21.80 and pulled back; the initial impression on the pullback is extremely bearish, although we need one day min. to confirm as such none the less we have strong resistance at 21.60 CSCO: (1/10/12) Bias: Bearish Up to 19.70 then down to 15.00 (down extension – 13.90) NOW: No major change Up to 19.73; from 19.63 to 19.75 expect a significant decline CSCO is my favorite stock, simply because it’s linear expansion is near perfect thereby making it the easiest to predict. CVX: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Bullish Up to 133.34 NOW: The big picture; I’m expecting a move up much higher than 133.34 up to 153.76/159.50; obviously the move up to 133.34 occurs beforehand, I was expecting Crude to reach 94/95 (spot) beforehand; which in turn takes the CVX down to 92.75 to 95.75 therefore until the move up to 133.34 begins it could well be another 22/33 days. In the meantime in another 3 days we will know exactly what to expect DECK: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Very Bearish Down to 39.73 although currently down to 61.60 then a bounce providing the bounce stays below 89.05 then down to 39.73 NOW: Not clear if we are in the early stages of the move down to 61.60 or if we bounce up to 96.67 beforehand; failing to trade above 91.63 clearly means we’re heading down to 61.60 EZCH: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Very Bullish Up to 39.96; the price action at 39.96 determines if it continues up to 44.67 or down to 24.21 NOW: I’m still quite bullish, although it must reach 32.02 (min.) to continue up; it’s the up price target for the bottom pattern from 12/28/11; in light of the sharp (gaps) decline from 36.15 down to 29.13 caution must be exercised for new recent longs; because these type of sharp gapping declines often create a trend reversal GOOG: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Very Bullish Up to 735.68 to 762.05 Pivotal supports at 567.00 and at 617/618 NOW: The recent sharp decline from 1/4/12 (670.25) is potentially quite bearish, although we need 2 to 5 more days in order to confirm as such; none the less the support pivot at 617 held on the sharp decline; providing the pivot continues to hold the immediate move is up to 702.47 –The key to the upside continuation is stay above 587.88 (Daily Close) none the less upon reaching 616.91 on 1/10 we developed a small bottom pattern, as such the up price target is 650.69; the first attempt on the bounce failed and is marginally pointing down to 612.85 Key note: also GOOG preceded the dip down on the ES/SPX/DJ-30 Will begin daily (intra day updates) GOOG is a good stock to day trade or scalp on a 3 day swing due to it’s price structure which in turn puts fat on the options IBM: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Bearish Potential Top at 194.90; If so immediately down to 159.22 Requires further updates Potentially IBM could fall hard down to 131/133 NOW: No change Staying below 190.65 confirms the move down to 159.22 currently expect a short lived bounce up to 181.60 to 181.52 and possible up to 184.51 and then immediately down to 170.75; failure to close (60m) one bar at or above 180.35 is EXTREMELY bearish A daily close at or above 180.55 is required in order to bounce MO: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Bearish Potential top at 30.40; because 31.62 is the up price target for a bottom pattern from 8/11; failing to reach 31.62 is extremely bearish (19.00); 26.72 is the pivotal support for 31.62; requires further updates NOW: No major change Currently it MUST reach 29.36 (highly doubtful) otherwise it means we’re in the early stages of the big move down (19.00) as such 24.95 is the immediate down target, 24.95 activates a down extension (23.60) MO is one of my favorites (short play) MSFT: (from 1/10/12) A weekly close at or above 28.31 opens the door to reaching 30.40 Expect a significant pullback at 30.40 NOW: Several new extensions on the horizon Reaching 28.65 activates an up extension (up to 29.01) after reaching 28.65 then it MUST reach 28.18 to cancel the up extension Reaching 29.02 activates an up extension (up to 30.34) after reaching 29.02 then it MUST reach 26.86 to cancel the up extension Key note: MSFT dipped and found a bottom (immediate term) on 1/11 while the ES/SPX/DJ-30 did the same on 1/13; quite borderline if we reach 28.65 or not, I have it reaching (for sure) 28.45 and I have 28.63 as the up price target for the 1/11 low (27.37) NUAN: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Bullish Up to 29.24; then expect a minor pullback; the pullback MUST stay above 26.00 in order to continue up; as such 32.34 is the next up price target, failure to reach 32.34 is extremely bearish; taking us immediately straight down to 16.50; 26.00 is the pivotal support for 32.34; below it then 21.60 is the next pivotal support NOW: We reached 29.24 on 1/13/12; upon reaching 29.24 we developed a potential (small) top pattern; taking us back down to 27.94; as such 28.72 is the support pivot. The bigger picture the key is to reach 32.34 otherwise immediately back down to 24.26; NVLS: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Bullish Up to 46.32; at 46.32 expect a significant pullback; providing the pullback (weekly close) stays above 40.15; then up again to 50.41; again expect a decent pullback at 50.41 – above 48.32 risk increases dramatically, not reaching 50.41 after reaching 48.32 is extremely bearish down to 26.68 NOW: On 1/11/12 at 44.38 we bounced off of the upper floating wall; normally as such the immediate move is ALWAYS down to the OAV, in this case the OAV is at 36.43; in addition 36.43 is also the pivotal support for 46.32 40.16 is the nearest pivotal support and linear (support trendline) support is at 42.30 ORCL: (from 1/10/12) Down to 21.35; beforehand up to 28.70/28.77 then down to 21.35 NOW: No major change Minor change; it may not reach 28.70/28.77; quite possibly up to 27.94/27.99 and then we begin the move down to 21.35 PAA: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Bullish Up to 76.00: at 76.00 expect a decent pullback; providing the pullback stays above 65.96 then up again to 87.80 NOW: The price action on 1/11/12 changed the picture (minor) it appears we will not pullback at 76.00 but instead continue straight up to 77.02 and highly probable up to 78.68; at 75.72 expect a decent pullback to 73.99 to 73.77 PEP :(from 1/10/12) Up to 67.93; at 67.93 expect a significant pullback; must update again after reaching 67.93 NOW: We pulled back from 71.89 down to 64.13 On 5/31/11 we completed a top formation at 71.89; of which the down price target is 48.89/49.08 to 50.50; although on 10/4/11 at 58.50 we bounced off of the floating lower wall; which in turn takes us up to 67.93 to 68.74; therefore I’m a little surprise we pulled back without reaching 67.93 until we clearly trade below 62.74 IMO we reach 67.97 to 68.74; for the simple reason it’s the up target for the bottom pattern from 58.50; as such 62.74 is the 1st support pivot (for 67.97 – 68.74) and 62.05 is the 2nd and final support pivot I’m NOT so excited regarding the downside, risk marginally exceeds reward, because at 59.25ish it will bounce again; probably back up to 65/67 or thereabouts; at best PEP is a 7 - 13 to 17 day scalp; nothing more RL: (from 1/10/12) Bias: Potential turn Potential top in place at 164.55; if so then down to 78.20 This week’s close is profoundly important confirming a top in place or not. 147.20 is a potential failure level, if not then 155.40 comes into play NOW: Last week we reached and were rejected at 147.69; closing the week at 143.69 As such we have clear cut top in place and are in the early stages of the move down to 78.20; although the immediate move is down to 135.95, after the bounce at 135.95) it continues straight down to 123.01 – This stock is one of my favorite potential shorts SBUX: (from 1/10/12) Up to 48.83; at 48.83 expect a significant pullback; the pullback MUST hold the 44.00 level, if so then up again to 54.26 NOW: at 48.17 expect a pullback, as such the pullback must hold 46.80; If not then down to 43.48-43.52; heading down to 43.48/43.52 possibly derails the move up from 33.72; 43.49 is a potential reversal level (back –up) SPG (from 1/10/12) Bias: Potential short (awesome downside potential) Will update in accordance to the proper entry sequence (needs patience) NOW: The downside potential; It’s reaches 75.43 on the next decline; question at hand is if we topped out at 132.29 or not. None the less it MUST clearly trade below 124.00 (Daily Close) in order to CONFIRM the top in place scenario, in addition it MUST close (Daily) at or above 129.38 in order to test the last high or print a new high. High probability we put in a top at 132.29, reason being we have a pattern from 12/2/11 that the up price target is 134.79; we reached 131.21; although until we reach 124.00/124.25 we have no confirmation as such. This stock is one of my favorites potential shorts; because once clearly below (weekly close) 100.50 there is no limit to the downside, currently 68.23 to 75.43 are downside targets in accordance to patterns. TXN: (from 1/10/12) Up to 31.50 Needs further updating, possible move up to 36.39 or down to 23.49 NOW: Potential short play We have a bottom pattern with bearish compression readings; it MUST reach 31.68 in order to cancel out the bearishness; if not then it’s straight down to 24.12 to 23.49 In an hour or two I have more stock updates

Edited by Master Che, 17 January 2012 - 08:56 AM.

Master Che - market updates - masterchetrading@gmail.com