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[Geomean]

I find it helpful sometimes to check macro factors and have focused on the Conference Board's Revised Index of Leading Indicators (New LEI) and the 4Q Gross Domestic Product estimate -- which are to be released Thursday and Friday this week.

The New LEI will show we haven't regained the prior high and it might have flattened or turned down. [While Purchasing Manager, consumer and investor confidence indicators have increased recently, they had been very low and LEI includes the expectation outlooks} Here is a somewhat dated chart that does not show the mid year dip and following partial retracement.



Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft have declined substantially in the last three months ] Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft 0.2888 67001 67812 68451

The 4Q GDP initial estimate consensus expects @ 3% growth, but some say that the recent trade data undercuts that view.

News Analysis

It should make for a very interesting week.

ATB

Geo

[For insight on the significance of the trade data, below is an excerpt from a Table [in Excel™] attached to the Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP release for 3Q11 BEA News Release Link

Edited by Geomean, 22 January 2012 - 09:18 AM.