294 replies to this topic

[dharma]

agree w/you senor.
i post these fib points, because i dont want to be caught flat footed. 260 rally, 120 correction. i dont think the bottom is in , but its just an opinion. i dont see hourly divergences. i do see wedges formed on the hourly charts. when real assets go on sale, i want to buy. the dollar has proven its not a store of value. if you are old enough , you have seen this over your years. japan, euro, and usa are printing. this will erode pp. the flood of liquidity(i am not sure of the time lag) will find its way into higher commodity prices. now, i have written repeatedly that i think we are in a big deflation. that view has not changed, Stagflation anyone!!!!? i dont know if they can print enough to reverse that. for me this whole thing , from the get go, is about sovereign debt. can any of these sovereigns pay this debt. in greece they are killing the patient, to try to get them to pay off their debt. if you go back to ww1 germany was saddled w/rebuilding and paying war reparations. as industrious as the german people are, they could not rebuild and pay off the war reparations. well here is all the sovereigns trying to pay the debt and maintain all the social services and other pensions etc simultaneously. it aint going to happen. the fundamentals for gold continue to get brighter and brighter, and yet here we are going through a 120 correction. its a market. all the market principles still apply. when there is nothing but blue skies for the precious metals , it will be the final top. the end of story. its just how it is! my job in all of this is to preserve my pp. when the skies are bluer then blue, i will start shedding this vehicle.
we will see of course, but i believe the craze for mining shares, which are real assets lies dead ahead. the hedgies, long gold/short miners, will end as a viable hedge. when? i have no idea. i do think relatively speaking it will be soon. the reality is , cbs are printing , and will continue to print. no matter what they say, they have embarked on this road, and it will continue. the consequences of which have not been seen ------yet.
i have the 8th and 16th as turn dates
dharma

to me also, they do mine gold/silver. i have to believe, and i have no idea when. they will go on an upward tear. you ae correct sir, this could have very well been the lows
time will tell
dharma
si amigo, we are muy close if not done with gold decline IMO. bueno abc down and now trying to move norte back above importante moving averages. HUI/Gold ratio is double bottoming against Feb bottom which was lowest level since early March 2009. Back then the stock market had crashed (Dow 6500) and was at a grande bottom, this time the gold shares are incredibly weak vs gold but U.S. stock market (Dow has doubled) at highest levels in a long while. Muy interesting, gold shares seem muy cheap to me but WTFDIK

BSing away

Senor

[senorBS]

The HGNSI collapsed 14.2 points to 16.7% yesterday. Pessimism abounds coinciding with historical lows.
this is being set up. patience
dharma

gracias, thanks for posting that its what I want to see

Senor

[dharma]

more of the same! Believe it or not, the HGNSI fell 13.3 points yesterday to just 4.3%, which further cements the Bullish setup for Gold going into tomorrow’s jobs data. MarketVane’s Bullish consensus merely rose 1 point to 62%, which other than the lows we saw back in December and the lows of 2008 was previously a level that was only seen near the summer low of 2010 and the January low of 2011. In short, Gold Bulls remain extremely depressed. the bugs have taken brutal poundings over the years. so it is definitely discouraging @the least! my work shows a band of reistance from 1697-1716. i have no idea if the bottom is in or not. not going to chase. i didnt get off all that i had wanted to get off. so if need be, i will go w/what i got! natural gas, man it continually looks like they will be giving ng away for free, it has, over the years, looked like it bottomed . then it takes that out and repeats the process over and over again. its why i stick to the metals, they are the only market that is in a bull or bear market. the broads , tr. eg. picking a bottom in ng is one tough hombre. i would think @some point it will prove to be very rewarding. dharma

[dougie]

this action off the lows hardly impulsive looking argues for another leg down into the 16th or the 22nd? could be swift. saving some dry powder

[senorBS]

more of the same!
Believe it or not, the HGNSI fell 13.3 points yesterday to just 4.3%, which further cements the Bullish setup for Gold going into tomorrow’s jobs data.

MarketVane’s Bullish consensus merely rose 1 point to 62%, which other than the lows we saw back in December and the lows of 2008 was previously a level that was only seen near the summer low of 2010 and the January low of 2011. In short, Gold Bulls remain extremely depressed.

the bugs have taken brutal poundings over the years. so it is definitely discouraging @the least! my work shows a band of reistance from 1697-1716. i have no idea if the bottom is in or not. not going to chase. i didnt get off all that i had wanted to get off. so if need be, i will go w/what i got!

natural gas, man it continually looks like they will be giving ng away for free, it has, over the years, looked like it bottomed . then it takes that out and repeats the process over and over again. its why i stick to the metals, they are the only market that is in a bull or bear market. the broads , tr. eg.
picking a bottom in ng is one tough hombre. i would think @some point it will prove to be very rewarding.
dharma

Gracias. love to see that HGNSI sentiment crater! it appears to me at least that many of the nat gas stocks have bottomed while the commodity makes new lows, I view this as a positive divergence. For examples the Nat gas stock ETF (FCG) bottomed at 14.25 last oct, then 17.05 in Dec, and today is at 18.67 with nat gas at 10 yr lows. One has to have a long term view if buying/holding these stocks and I would only be in larger financially stable companies.

Senor

[senorBS]

this action off the lows hardly impulsive looking
argues for another leg down
into the 16th or the 22nd?
could be swift.
saving some dry powder

always a bueno idea. what is impressing Senor is the GDXJ strength, I like the way it is trading and it looks a lot more "impulsive" than the GDX or XAU, I think the lows are in but it's only an opinion

Senor

[tria]

My ‘unofficial’ spy just told me the PSI went extremely well… I suppose this is good for the Euro. -tria Athens

[dharma]

thanks tria

too early for me to draw conclusions. those sentiment figures are eye opening.
@the dec lows they were very similar.
not as clear a technical bottom as dec , which doesnt mean a thing
its looking more and more constructive. into the resistance we are , now lets see what if any follow through there is!
it is interesting senor that the gdxj is leading and the move is morphing into an impulse looking structure
dharma
oh and by the way , wondering what election years look like for the broads
http://seasonalchart...s_election.html
any doubts about the massive amounts of spending that is taking place and going to continue to get one of these bozos elected!
i have to think that is going to spill over into the miners!

Edited by dharma, 08 March 2012 - 02:49 PM.

[tria]

thanks tria

too early for me to draw conclusions. those sentiment figures are eye opening.
@the dec lows they were very similar.
not as clear a technical bottom as dec , which doesnt mean a thing
its looking more and more constructive. into the resistance we are , now lets see what if any follow through there is!
it is interesting senor that the gdxj is leading and the move is morphing into an impulse looking structure
dharma
oh and by the way , wondering what election years look like for the broads
http://seasonalchart...s_election.html
any doubts about the massive amounts of spending that is taking place and going to continue to get one of these bozos elected!
i have to think that is going to spill over into the miners!

dharma,

I was looking for 1860 by very early April, provided we do not break Tuesday's low, and the broads seasonal chart adds to my confidence. A nice objective just before the Easter holidays.

-tria

[dharma]

thanks tria

too early for me to draw conclusions. those sentiment figures are eye opening.
@the dec lows they were very similar.
not as clear a technical bottom as dec , which doesnt mean a thing
its looking more and more constructive. into the resistance we are , now lets see what if any follow through there is!
it is interesting senor that the gdxj is leading and the move is morphing into an impulse looking structure
dharma
oh and by the way , wondering what election years look like for the broads
http://seasonalchart...s_election.html
any doubts about the massive amounts of spending that is taking place and going to continue to get one of these bozos elected!
i have to think that is going to spill over into the miners!

dharma,

I was looking for 1860 by very early April, provided we do not break Tuesday's low, and the broads seasonal chart adds to my confidence. A nice objective just before the Easter holidays.

-tria

i see the big deflation that the world is in . its what the burnack and draghi point to as they print mountains of fresh fiat! they tell everyone we have to print because housint eg is in the gutter, we have to print to bail out the long list of sovereigns. i make no mistake of being misdirected , they are printing and will continue to throw mountains of freshly printed fiat @this thing. hyperinflation? inflation? i think more like stagflation. i think this year could be surprising.
dharma
how is the life being affected in greece? are consumer staples available. and @what price?