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[nimblebear]

http://www.businessi...te-polls-2012-5

The election will come down to the economy. Period.

If the economy really picks up steam, AND most importantly the actual people voting are seeing they can get jobs, then the incumbent wins. There is no amount of campaigning however, and no amount of money the incumbent can spend, if the economy does not improve, and voters aren't feeling the love of more hiring.

What's likely the ONLY thing to convince employers to do more hiring that DC could actually have an effect on ? Remove tax uncertainty. Thus unless Obama is able to say the Bush tax cuts will not expire, and will remain in place for the next 4 years, personally I think this term he is in now, is unfortunately (for him) his last.

So barring any economic surprises to the upside, Romney wins in November, unless an act of ******* occurs in congress and the Bush tax cuts aren't allowed to expire. Republicans now will do absolutely zero on tax cuts of any sort before November. And of course neither will the democrats, because they want the opposite to occur of anything Bush II put into place.

Thus my FF: Romney wins by a very very slim margin in November. of course millions upon millions will be wasted by both parties on the election campaigning, and the pundits will attempt to boil it down to more arcane factors just for the sheer entertainment of it all. Of course they need a story, and the above would be quite boring, so we will see flip flops in the polls on a near weekly, if not daily basis. Right up until Nov 2.

PS. And baffelingly so, if not ironic, the above scenario would seem highly uncertain for the markets, irrespective of how the underlying fundamentals are this year. My second FF, is this actually creates "certainty," because the markets know there is no way in heck the tax cuts are going to be allowed to stay in place, so that's priced in for all intents and purposes. That being the case, the market goes up from here into November at least, and seemingly perversely it occurs even if the jobs numbers are lousy all year long, and other factors like Europe or Greece or China look bad. So I guess all in all, its time to hold your nose after any sort of May correction (which could be essentially done), and take the plunge into stocks until November. Wall of worry, or exuberant bulls ? Bears are screwed for the next 6 months at least.