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[Macro Speculator]

About 10 days ago I wrote I was looking for 1270ish by this week and would plan on covering there. However, this market has been so unbelievably weak, with no sign of a washout (and alarmingly for bulls, way too much complacency), that I'm starting to think we might keep slipping lower and lower and perhaps even see sub 1200 by late May/early June. Still holding full short position and waiting for some sign of a climax/capitulation. Longer term, I think the action of the past 15 days is MUCH more bearish than a sudden crash washout that consolidates and resumes the bull run...this just seems like a market that doesn't seem to have bids and where people are slowly raising cash, slowly positioning themselves in various asset classes. No major buyers seem to be out there at these levels. At all. I will go long for a brief 50-100 point summer countertrade perhaps if we see a big washout (or get down to the 1170-1230 area with decent down days), but I think the past few weeks have been very damaging to bulls/the optimistic scenario, so I'm going to try and stay strong and hold these shorts longer. Something seems very wrong with this market....very, very wrong. Looking like a brutal autumn after this current move (wherever it ends) gets digested over the summer.