Sold my QLD position today and took a 3.5% gain.
My basis for selling is my comparison of this summers market to the summer of 2000. The charts are similar so I am selling at points close to resistance, buying back in at support in a couple weeks and riding it up one more time. In my opinion the NDX is carving out a ABCDE up pattern and will rise in a choppy market into a high resistance level somewhere around a 76.4% of the recent high to the recent low. This is allowing to develop a rising wedge that should end sometime in August and then DOWN. Of course as time goes by that pattern could change but the more I look at it, the same pattern is happening as 2000, so I will trade accordingly until it all changes.
For QLD, I expect it to get to 55.60 area soon, then a two week pullback into maybe the 52-53 area and then finally run to as high as 58. Once that completes, I would change to trading QID maybe around the 30 area for a strong run up to maybe 60 in the Fall.
I think the odds say starting tomorrow the NDX will be selling off for 10 to 15 trading days and then rally most of August.
That's what I think is setting up. Never know for sure though. One day at a time!
100% CASH until ????
Sold My QLD
Started by
CRUISENAL
, Jul 05 2012 01:02 PM
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