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The Setup


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#1 diogenes227

diogenes227

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Posted 13 July 2012 - 04:09 PM

I will be selling puts today.

Yes, jinxed, hexed, but probably another long setup mid next week though...

Too much damage in growth stocks.

Best of luck...

Patience, patience... Oops! Probably hexed it more. Oh, well...

I would think selling puts will work out just fine. And anyone buying them will be slowly beating their heads against the wall next week.

Five consecutive days down on the Naz Comp (six now on the other major indexes). The 88 percent profitable setup I outlined above for a four-days-down just went to 100 percent profitable on the leveraged index ETFs for a buy on the open tomorrow. At least that's the history of this past year (three trades, all in the money) but, as they say, history doesn't actually have to repeat :D.

Bought TNA and TQQQ on today's open (TNA is up a bit, TQQQ down a bit). Holding.

...

Good luck and good trading.

P.S. Kind of negative out there with the NYMO going through the zero line and turning down the NYSI. But hopefully, the oversold and/or, if nothing else, short covering on the five/six days downs in the indexes will take care of that tomorrow.


The above quote is from a post yesterday in a thread that began July 11th -- THE FULL THREAD IS HERE.

The setup highlighted in boldface -- after five consecutive days down on the Naz comp a buy on the index ETFs on the open of the next day and hold until the close of the first up day (usually the same day as the buy on the open) -- is still 100 percent profitable for this past year. Four trades, every one a winner. TQQQ netted 3.5 percent on this trade, and is up 15 percent now on the four trades for the year; TNA up 2.9 on this trade and 11.2 percent for the year; UPRO up 4.2 on this trade and 12.8 percent for the year. The trades on this setup are now closed. Average time in the four trades is approximately six days total.

This setup will come around again and it will eventually have a loser but for now...

Have a good weekend.

:)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."