30 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

I wasn't going to post anything for a longer period because the discussions on one of our forums were turning into a "nany nany boo boo" type forum which turns me off. That said, I will post what I see and my latest alerts. NYSE BP turned to X Thursday...anyone who studies pnf knows this is bullish for the markets despite the fear of the fiscal cliff..it could mean we do one more big run up and then drop..or it could mean all time highs..and it could mean we correct even 5-6% and it doesn't change because that would be a buying opportunity. So basically it's still bullish for the market and according to Merriman if we have a new cycle hi after Dec 21st...we could see new highs...up to 14,500-15,000 on the dow but till then we could have topped out according to Merriman. For me I always use TA over financial astrology but I do keep my mind focus that big price swings are a given. Why I bring in the NYSE and how it affects gold? First let me say Friday I did get an important alert from pnf (This is Dorsey's pnf ..different from stockcharts..more involved) on gold and silver. Gold's pnf trend changed to negative...silver RS turned to O...yet at this time silver's trend is still positive..but both are on sells signals...gdx's trend changed a few weeks ago and it dropped $3 since I got that alert. I dont know when the last time this happened for gold for the pnf trend to change to negative but it's been a long time and it's a big warning sign for me that it's not going straight up...big price swings. I think a short term low is coming by next week or beginning of Jan or it can be in but intermediate trend is negative till we break over 1810 on gold. Miners need to lead as we have said before..so I would personally watch miners first and a trend change might take a month, months or even years but it doesn't typically turn around fast..yet nothing is 100%. I do get Merriman's monthly newsletter and I know Ken if he is reading this gets his daily alerts so maybe something is different since mid Dec but since that newsletter he is looking for a primary cycle and longer cycle low between Jan 28-Feb15th which I believe is the 4 yr low if last Dec wasn't it. No matter that period is an important period for a good long swing position..prior to it, I believe it's tradeable...and again unless 1810 breaks..however, it's not really till the all time highs break that we can definitely say the bottom is in...imo So, I can see us going back to 1780 (1720 is pnf buy signal) but stopping short of going over 1800 only to retest this low we are either had or about to have and yes, it can break Dec 2011 1526 lows. If we stall at 1719 and reverse back down, that's a clue more downside needs to happen... It's a trading range till it's not. Now, the question is why isn't gold going up? First of all, I think as long as the markets are up..gold will be ranged bound..or yes, can break out Dec 2011 lows. So I watch for that signal. I'm sure you all have noticed how gold is not in sync with the markets for a while. There's a reason for that..and the Fed is that reason. When will gold break out? An important low is coming but until bonds break down which we are showing some signs of topping out on the 20 yr's monthly chart, there is no reason for gold to break out. When bond's break down it will show the FEd's failure to keep rates low. Why hasn't QE3 been a success?...I mean we are printing money, right? The money imo has been parked in bonds..once that bubble breaks which I do believe we are seeing signs of it, the velocity of the money will create and start the ball rolling not just for equities but for commodities..gold/silver and our miners. The bond market has been targeted for safety..once investors realize it's a fail safe place to park their money...money will flow into equities and commodities. And let's not forget our foreign investors expecially China who holds $3.2 tillion of reserves. So my theory and I want to make it clear I use my alerts to change my thinking if I'm wrong, is that we find at least a short term bottom now or once the fiscal cliff news is resolved..hopefully not by end of Jan...and then we test that bottom ..whether we break it or not, we will have to see..then I would be watching bonds to see if more cracking is happening..so there might be some more gyrations till we break 1810...with an important high 21-20 month cycle hi in June. If I can ask anything from posters who want to know more, ask the question but don't be disrespectiful as all I"m doing is sharing as many here are which I really do appreciate many thoughts bullish/bearish arguments..that's what good traders should always look at..boths sides. I let the market dictate..and my opinion is just that..an opinion like many here...no one is 100% accurate not even the best of the best but don't disrespect others, as all that does is keep those that do feel they have some good information from posting. I know it turned me off to see how the gold forum was being more attacked than having intelligent conversations. Let's keep it civil. And don't confuse my "niceness" as being naive. I come from Chicago and I'm Italian...and I can get down and dirty like anyone but I chose not too because all it does is accomplish nothing. We are constant teachers and students in life and anyone here who thinks they have all the answers, well they wouldn't be posting a lot imo because they would be too busy making so much money and realize it's not worth the headaches. Of course, there are exceptions because many wish to help others because of their good fortune. That said, please check the egos at the door. Those of you who say I told you so will not come back here when they are wrong...,..that's been the MO here. All I can say is pnf keeps my profits. For me when things change so do I and the reasons for using pnf which this is taken from Dorsey's site is P&F charts are indigenous to stock market trading which give you both the immediate and long term view. Formations, patterns and signals are easy to recognize and interpret, and tend to repeat themselves. Trends are readily identified and trendlines can be drawn with amazing ease. Valid targets can be established. It is the easiest kind of chart to maintain and therefore allows you to follow more stocks. It should enable the investor to stay on a winner while it is winning and get off a loser quickly. The method is dynamic. The fixed interval of plotting may be made to fit whatever you want to chart - stocks, bonds, commodities, speculation or investment. It ignores the static time factor, the confusing volume indications, and irrelevant minor fluctuations. That said you do need TA combined with it as this is not a short term trading tool. Happy Holiday and Peace to all Irene P.S..the NYSE BP turning just last Thursday typically we would get at least another high..only 2 times since I've done this since 2000 which was in 2008..it flipped in 2 weeks to O..but typically it lasts for a month..average several months

Edited by tradermama, 23 December 2012 - 09:11 AM.

[gismeu]

Thanks Irene,

great post!

gis

P.S. THe attached link shows a weekly chart of SLV where I tried to find golden mean rations between lows and it would indicate
that the week starting Monday December 31 should be a low for Silver

http://i931.photobuc...zpsf130f78d.jpg

[tradermama]

Thanks Irene,

great post!

gis

P.S. THe attached link shows a weekly chart of SLV where I tried to find golden mean rations between lows and it would indicate
that the week starting Monday December 31 should be a low for Silver

http://i931.photobuc...zpsf130f78d.jpg

Thanks Gis...Regarding gold/silver ...we're now hearing about a small deal with the Fiscal Cliff and this could actually get closer to a final deal end of Jan/Feb (which is that period I just mentioned for an important bottom)..and also close to debt ceiling limit time period...so this might still weigh on metals till then..but like I said, right now we are close to some kind of short term bottom like you mentioned too...I just got home yesterday after being out of town for a while and am in the middle of reading Merriman's 2013 Forecast book...I skimmed quickly as I was tired..so far it appears that 1630 must hold or we could be testing that Dec 2011 again..doesn't mean we break it..and could be a quadruple test...this all will determine what long term cycle we are in.

Silver must get over 35.44 to support his view that a 4.34 chycle low was completed this year June 28th...if this all happens then we coudl see new highs in 2013-2015..but 50 will be good resistance..then the target would be 67.50 +/-6.98...

I'm hoping that this weakness I'm getting in the metals just keeps it all in a range...the longer we consolidate..the bigger the launch..but like I said, that negative trend change for gold has kept my attention to be cautious.

Have a Happy New Years..

Irene

[DrSP]

mama, never heard a quadruple test before. But, boy you do have some lofty dreams like Silver almost tripling from here.

[einscodek]

mama, never heard a quadruple test before. But, boy you do have some lofty dreams like Silver almost tripling from here.

an exodus from bonds and rampant inflation would do it
could happen alot quicker than u think

[tradermama]

mama, never heard a quadruple test before. But, boy you do have some lofty dreams like Silver almost tripling from here.

Please read my posts carefully..where did I say silver will triple or quad bottom. If you take time to put on your glasses you would see in that post I was letting others know what MERRIMAN was saying. It was from his book. And there are some people here who are interested in his views. If you dont like something or believe in something then don't spoil it for others who might be interested in it.

You keep doing this crap and maybe it's your age thinking you have that "priviledge"...even though I'm not a young chicken myself but I do give people respect and will continue to because you see..this world is tough enough to live in...why make it more difficult with attitudes like yours! I would be happy to have intelligent discussions with you if you were capable, but apparently your dementia must be setting in. This is the last time I'm addressing you. Enough said.

Anyone interested from now on on what Merriman is saying or any pnf guidelines, feel free to send me a PM. I'm done with posting on Tradertalk. GLTA!

Irene

[DrSP]

mama, never heard a quadruple test before. But, boy you do have some lofty dreams like Silver almost tripling from here.

an exodus from bonds and rampant inflation would do it
could happen alot quicker than u think

Should the case warrant, it is not illogical to think of higher commodity prices but to say triple, quadruple is greed. Pure greed.

[stubaby]

mama, never heard a quadruple test before. But, boy you do have some lofty dreams like Silver almost tripling from here.

Please read my posts carefully..where did I say silver will triple or quad bottom. If you take time to put on your glasses you would see in that post I was letting others know what MERRIMAN was saying. It was from his book. And there are some people here who are interested in his views. If you dont like something or believe in something then don't spoil it for others who might be interested in it.

You keep doing this crap and maybe it's your age thinking you have that "priviledge"...even though I'm not a young chicken myself but I do give people respect and will continue to because you see..this world is tough enough to live in...why make it more difficult with attitudes like yours! I would be happy to have intelligent discussions with you if you were capable, but apparently your dementia must be setting in. This is the last time I'm addressing you. Enough said.

Anyone interested from now on on what Merriman is saying or any pnf guidelines, feel free to send me a PM. I'm done with posting on Tradertalk. GLTA!

Irene

Irene:

Keep posting please! Just ignore him - I do!

stubaby

[DrSP]

GLD is 0.5% down but that should not be the biggest worry. We will all be here, nobody is running away or dying. So, bookmark this post and we will see in 1 - 2 years. EOD.

[Russ]

Hi Irene, Remember your friends and ignore the guy that seems to be detested here, his argument that Gold's chart is parabolic may come true eventually but not yet, remember to equal 1980's high adjusted for inflation gold has to be well over $2000. I do have some longer term projections for a big low in the gold stocks in 2014 though, but the final high for gold should be in 2016 from my work and Armstrong changed his mind from his 2017 date to my date now too. I thought you would be interested that the Amanita timing service is long gold as of Dec. 21 for a variety of escoteric (New World Order codes), cycles and astrological reasons, the author Manfred Zimmel is looking to stay long until late March. Gold is closing well above Martin Armstrong's bearish reversal number of 1570 for year end. Russ