30 replies to this topic

[DrSP]

Just FYI, I want to reiterate that I hold a lot of Gold in all forms like coins, jewellery. I am also long GLD. Yep, I do have first purchase of Gold coin from 1931. I could sit here and pump those prices all day if I wish to, for personal gains. My holding of Gold, my trading of GLD is entirely different from my perspective of the real use of Gold. My thinking tends to be along the lines of a common man. What good is Gold to a common man, if it doesn't buy bread for the family? EOD. Today is going to be a busy day as we are out of the vacation and then busy trading day. Good luck to all on your trading!

[Russ]

first purchase of Gold coin from 1931.

Jesus!! How old are you?

Just FYI, I want to reiterate that I hold a lot of Gold in all forms like coins, jewellery. I am also long GLD. Yep, I do have first purchase of Gold coin from 1931. I could sit here and pump those prices all day if I wish to, for personal gains. My holding of Gold, my trading of GLD is entirely different from my perspective of the real use of Gold.

My thinking tends to be along the lines of a common man. What good is Gold to a common man, if it doesn't buy bread for the family? EOD.

Today is going to be a busy day as we are out of the vacation and then busy trading day. Good luck to all on your trading!

Edited by Russ, 02 January 2013 - 08:27 AM.

[dougie]

"Yep, I do have first purchase of Gold coin from 1931" Excuse me, but are you trying to say you MADE your first purchase of a gold coin in 1931?

[tradermama]

the SPX and Nasdaq just had a pnf positive trend change..this is like the opposite of GDX and Gold when I stated that a pnf negative trend change..confirms at least a multi month rally imo..possibly to Apr/May...and until 1810 breaks..money flow will go into equtiies...before gold until some crisis happens like the bond market bubble starting to crack which again we are seeing mroe signs of that... btw, this is not sentiment...this has to do with supply/demand..plain and simple...trend changes are important to pnf..because it takes a while for that to change..but gdx had it's trend change in early Dec..so it's possible that can happen before gold..in fact as I stated on the gold forum..for last day of Dec...it's not that far away from a RS buy ..and has a Chan buy along with hui/xau...and was showing signs of leading over metals..but we need confirmation TM

[Russ]

a pnf negative trend change..confirms at least a multi month rally imo..possibly to Apr/May.

Do you mean a multi-month decline into April/May since you wrote you stated a negative pnf trend change had happened?

the SPX and Nasdaq just had a pnf positive trend change..this is like the opposite of GDX and Gold when I stated that a pnf negative trend change..confirms at least a multi month rally imo..possibly to Apr/May...and until 1810 breaks..money flow will go into equtiies...before gold until some crisis happens like the bond market bubble starting to crack which again we are seeing mroe signs of that...

btw, this is not sentiment...this has to do with supply/demand..plain and simple...trend changes are important to pnf..because it takes a while for that to change..but gdx had it's trend change in early Dec..so it's possible that can happen before gold..in fact as I stated on the gold forum..for last day of Dec...it's not that far away from a RS buy ..and has a Chan buy along with hui/xau...and was showing signs of leading over metals..but we need confirmation
TM

[tradermama]

Sorry if I wasn't clear...a multi month rally into equities into Apr/May...only because the spx/nas just got a pnf positive trend change yesterday..confirming that nyse bp changing to X in mid Dec..I was at first concern it could be short live with all this fiscal cliff talk..but because trend changes can give you wind behind you..I believe we have a multi month rally...If this changes, I'll post it because I do think this relates to gold's performance based on money flow GDX and gold has to still prove themselve..but GDX is showing signs that a short term bottom minimal has been done..around $50 would be ultra bullish for gdx..but til lthen we are range bound..and yesterday's action wasn't that great..however GDX is known for this type volatility too. GDX trend changed to negative early Dec...Gold just did I believe last week or the week before..can't recall when I posted that...but if the bond bubble is starting to leak out here ..then that would show Bennie is losing control..and that's when I think gold would start to take off..unless we have issues again with the debt ceiling... Merriman is calling for an important low between Jan 28-Feb 15th..so this is where I think the real really will start..and it's right around the debt ceiling debate..maybe a downgrade?.. The good news for gold if it can hold 1620....I usually get some bullish signs from the gold funds too..and right now some of them have negative trends too..so patience is warranted for the long term bull trend to continue..imo..but it's all tradeable Best to you Russ, Irene

[Russ]

I am aware of some other cyclical and astro work calling for a big low in the general stock markets in March/April, however my own work is showing a major high for July in the SP500, this should lead to a huge low in 2014 which the Kress cycle and also T Theory has forecast too.

from Armstrong...."The total World Government debt came close to reaching $50 trillion for New Year’s Eve (not counting unfunded liabilities). But don’t worry that we didn’t quite make that goal. EVERY SECOND that number increases by $342,000+. Faster than economic growth worldwide."

Sorry if I wasn't clear...a multi month rally into equities into Apr/May...only because the spx/nas just got a pnf positive trend change yesterday..confirming that nyse bp changing to X in mid Dec..I was at first concern it could be short live with all this fiscal cliff talk..but because trend changes can give you wind behind you..I believe we have a multi month rally...If this changes, I'll post it because I do think this relates to gold's performance based on money flow

GDX and gold has to still prove themselve..but GDX is showing signs that a short term bottom minimal has been done..around $50 would be ultra bullish for gdx..but til lthen we are range bound..and yesterday's action wasn't that great..however GDX is known for this type volatility too.

GDX trend changed to negative early Dec...Gold just did I believe last week or the week before..can't recall when I posted that...but if the bond bubble is starting to leak out here ..then that would show Bennie is losing control..and that's when I think gold would start to take off..unless we have issues again with the debt ceiling...

Merriman is calling for an important low between Jan 28-Feb 15th..so this is where I think the real really will start..and it's right around the debt ceiling debate..maybe a downgrade?..

The good news for gold if it can hold 1620....I usually get some bullish signs from the gold funds too..and right now some of them have negative trends too..so patience is warranted for the long term bull trend to continue..imo..but it's all tradeable

Best to you Russ,

Irene

[tradermama]

Russ, It's possible you could be right..I just threw out Apr/May because of the end of the bullish period but this trend changes in spx/nasdaq combined with nyse bp on x..confirms imo a multi month run...yes we can have corrections..even while the nyse bp is on X...but it wont be as deep as some might think. If nyse bp changes to O, then that's a different story. I use ta over astro stuff..astrology always has two ways of looking at something..an example is Jupiter..all planets have a negative and positive side..Jupiter is the planet of exaggeration..either euphoria or panic. All we can do is weigh the probabilities and come up to our own conclusions based on ta or whatever method one chooses. But you and I are basically in an agreement with a positive first half. Also Merriman said by June/July we will be finally tackling the debt globally..so let's hope that's correct..and we are lining up with simliar planets we saw during the late 60s ..protests...a peace movements that will begin around then too..However, as he says..we do have choices..so it will all be determined from what our leaders do too Irene

[tradermama]

speaking of the dollar...Merriman calls for a $ rally which a trend might have started or it might commence between May-Sept..He says if he is correct, the $ could soar to 90-105 by early 2014. (Time for me to go back to Germany )


http://www.businessi...s-dollar-2013-1

The analysts see that changing in 2013. Namely, they suggest that precious metals like gold and silver, which languished into last year's end, are set to rebound.


However, Lewis and McGlone cite two main risks to their view. The first is that the economy really starts to improve. This is the hypothesis behind Goldman's notably bearish gold forecast for 2013.

The second risk is a "violent" turn in the U.S. dollar, the Deutsche Bank analysts write:

Historically US dollar cycles persist for an average of seven years, hence the current bear cycle in the US dollar is in its 11th year, and consequently should be viewed as long in the tooth. This has important implications for commodity markets not least given the growing correlation between risk assets since the onset of the financial crisis. Turns in the US dollar following bear cycles can be violent. For example, when the dollar turned in July 1980, the dollar appreciated by just over 40% within the following 12 month period. Given the ongoing weakness in the US basic balance we expect a turn in the dollar is some way off and that the US dollar will display weakness in the first half of this year.


TM

[Russ]

The politicians may attempt to contain the debts but they will fail, the thing is way too big now, it will never be paid off they will eventually be foreced to default on it but there will be an attempt to disguise that default perhaps by creating new currencies. The debts are like a cancer on society that will eventually consume everything and cause a collapse. Just look at Obama, his solution is to run around and grab the productive American's wealth which will cause a decline in the velocity of money, the people that create jobs will not be able to hire more people because the government took their profits and hired tax collectors with it. As the boomers retire en mass the strain on the budgets will get too big and the great danger is when interest rates go back up the payments to bond holders will get out of control. Obama is taking from the productive people to give to the bond holders.... 70% of the US debt is just from compounding interest on the bonds! As Armstrong says it is the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world, Marxist inspired folly, the idea that government can intervene in the economy, borrow heavily and never pay it debts. Politicians and their owners - the bankers are to blame.

Russ,
It's possible you could be right..I just threw out Apr/May because of the end of the bullish period but this trend changes in spx/nasdaq combined with nyse bp on x..confirms imo a multi month run...yes we can have corrections..even while the nyse bp is on X...but it wont be as deep as some might think. If nyse bp changes to O, then that's a different story.

I use ta over astro stuff..astrology always has two ways of looking at something..an example is Jupiter..all planets have a negative and positive side..Jupiter is the planet of exaggeration..either euphoria or panic. All we can do is weigh the probabilities and come up to our own conclusions based on ta or whatever method one chooses.

But you and I are basically in an agreement with a positive first half.

Also Merriman said by June/July we will be finally tackling the debt globally..so let's hope that's correct..and we are lining up with simliar planets we saw during the late 60s ..protests...a peace movements that will begin around then too..However, as he says..we do have choices..so it will all be determined from what our leaders do too

Irene