30 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

Hi Irene, Remember your friends and ignore the guy that seems to be detested here, his argument that Gold's chart is parabolic may come true eventually but not yet, remember to equal 1980's high adjusted for inflation gold has to be well over $2000. I do have some longer term projections for a big low in the gold stocks in 2014 though, but the final high for gold should be in 2016 from my work and Armstrong changed his mind from his 2017 date to my date now too.

I thought you would be interested that the Amanita timing service is long gold as of Dec. 21 for a variety of escoteric (New World Order codes), cycles and astrological reasons, the author Manfred Zimmel is looking to stay long until late March. Gold is closing well above Martin Armstrong's bearish reversal number of 1570 for year end.

Russ

Thanks Russ. Yes, I found the ignore button..LOL! And because I got quite a few emails to post I decided to consider the source...and realize the majority here enjoy intellligent discussions and know how to approach people in a civil way. Thanks for your input and Happy New Year.
Irene

[DrSP]

Has anyone of the guys mentioned including Amanita, Amrstrong, Merriman been right over the long term without changing their outlook every 3 months? No, not even one! Why should we believe them when they say PM will triple/ quadruple in 3 years? A bunch of jokers following another like a herd of sheep.....

[Russ]

Has anyone of the guys mentioned including Amanita, Amrstrong, Merriman been right over the long term without changing their outlook every 3 months? No, not even one! Why should we believe them when they say PM will triple/ quadruple in 3 years?

A bunch of jokers following another like a herd of sheep.....

I have not followed Amanita for very long so I cannot speak to that, but I know they are one of Timer's Digest's top Timers. What is your track record?

As for Armstrong you are dead wrong, Armstrong predicted the world's current debt crisis back in the 1980's using his supercomputer model and has had a long term bullish view of Gold since the 1990's, I have one of his reports from the 1990's warning that if deficits continue then Gold may be your only relief. In fact in the summer of 1999 Gold bottomed exactly on one of his pi cycle turning points which are carved in stone just as the late 2015 year one is and the 2007 one that saw the peak of the housing markets and the Japanese market. Before that in the 1970's he became very bullish on gold and predicted it would rise up on his economic confidence model date which is based on the 8.6 year pi cycle.



Armstrong is looking for about $5000 Gold by 2016 which he did revise from a previous 2017 year high. Anyone attempting to predict the future must remain somewhat flexible to new information, long term forecasts are the most difficult to do I am sure you must realize. I think it grossly unfair to accuse someone like Armstrong to be a sheep, he does not follow anyone around and has openly attacked those calling for hyper-inflation and Gold into the tens of thousands of dollar per ounce because based on his studies of ancient empires going back thousands of years - core economies like the USA is don't experience hyper-inflation - they just collapse which is what he thinks the USA will do between 2015 and 2020, a bankrupt empire bristling with nuclear weapons.... oh boy!

PS.... Happy New Year Irene!

Edited by Russ, 31 December 2012 - 08:45 PM.

[DrSP]

I have all of Armstrong's reports from every year. Basically, they say the same thing precious metals "To the moon" "central bank manipulation". Those who are in the trade following year after year know that those reports are zilch. But, if someone read a report for the 1st time in 1999, and Gold soared from 1999 to 2012, then it means Armstrong is G.od? Yeah? So funny. If you cherry pick a period like 1999 - 2012 or something like that, yes, Gold outperformed. But, over a period of 20 years or 30 years, Gold has not outperformed any asset including equities or real estate. Yes, congratulations to those who invested in 1999. But, don't overstay the run based on someone who says the same every year regardless of where the price is! In the end, you will be left holding bags.

Just FYI, right now it is being widely speculated all over internet that /SI is about to begin its 400% run upward. I mean investments have become so much comical that every site can predict the 400% increase in 2 years? Speculations like this have not ended well in this past. We will see.

Here too http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=347003 you were seen questioning TA based predictions before the 2008 crash. You were asking for the past record. We now know LarryT was very close to his prediction except he didn't see the crash coming way faster than he thought. Ofcourse, naysayers like you couldn't cash on TA, but instead relied on essays/ newsletters/ video/ audio who repeat the same junk every weekend for the last 30 years.

[Russ]

Actually I predicted the low in gold in 1999 several months before it happened, people from the old Compuserve Investor's Forum saw me do it. I also predicted in early 2007 on the fearless forecasters site that the housing index would form a big low in the spring of 2009, I was off by a few weeks on the exact low but saw the big decline coming 2 years before it happened. Currently I think the spx will form a major high in July 2013.

Nobody in this business is perfect and that most likely includes you. Something wrong with a guy like you that likes to insult everyone. I am sure if a poll was taken on this board the majority would vote to ban you.

I have all of Armstrong's reports from every year. Basically, they say the same thing precious metals "To the moon" "central bank manipulation". Those who are in the trade following year after year know that those reports are zilch. But, if someone read a report for the 1st time in 1999, and Gold soared from 1999 to 2012, then it means Armstrong is G.od? Yeah? So funny. If you cherry pick a period like 1999 - 2012 or something like that, yes, Gold outperformed. But, over a period of 20 years or 30 years, Gold has not outperformed any asset including equities or real estate. Yes, congratulations to those who invested in 1999. But, don't overstay the run based on someone who says the same every year regardless of where the price is! In the end, you will be left holding bags.

Just FYI, right now it is being widely speculated all over internet that /SI is about to begin its 400% run upward. I mean investments have become so much comical that every site can predict the 400% increase in 2 years? Speculations like this have not ended well in this past. We will see.

Here too http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=347003 you were seen questioning TA based predictions before the 2008 crash. You were asking for the past record. We now know LarryT was very close to his prediction except he didn't see the crash coming way faster than he thought. Ofcourse, naysayers like you couldn't cash on TA, but instead relied on essays/ newsletters/ video/ audio who repeat the same junk every weekend for the last 30 years.

[DrSP]

I was off by a few weeks on the exact low but saw the big decline coming 2 years before it happened. Currently I think the spx will form a major high in July 2013.

In 2008, you were a lot bullish as indicated in LarryT's thread, not bearish. EOD.

[Russ]

I was off by a few weeks on the exact low but saw the big decline coming 2 years before it happened. Currently I think the spx will form a major high in July 2013.

In 2008, you were a lot bullish as indicated in LarryT's thread, not bearish. EOD.

I had bearish projections for the housing index from early 2007 projecting a low for May/June 2009 which was off 2-3 months as the low came in March, however you are right I was expressing doubt to Larry T for his bearishness in that post which of course my stance to Larry did contradict my housing index chart. The chart below dated early 2007 was originally posted to FF in early 2007.

[DrSP]

The reason why you contradicted Larry is because of the mass pyschology. You didn't want to miss the next big rally. At that time, anyone with an opposing/ contrarian view will have seemed like an idiot. On this Gold and commodity board, many days back I quoted "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then..." Why? Because anyone with an opposing view is detested. Anyone with a uberbullish view is respected. The higher the target someone quotes, the more he is respected. The higher % someone predicts, that is the right person today. If someone gives a target of 150$ for Silver, you read that essay with excitement. Because all of you are living in fantasies, dreams and looking at your investments in fiction. You want someone in video/ audio/ essay to juice up the future prediction. You want to spend time living that fantasy. You don't want someone to spoil that dream. Who knows what would be the price of any investment over a period of time. But, people tend to clutch on to the only view that is on their side. Everyone else is an idiot. "Ignore the guy...." "this guy should be banned..." these are very common statements that come out for opposing views. Socrates, Aristotle, Galileo, LarryT.....everyone of them had a contrarian view. All of them were stoned!

[Russ]

Well my housing chart was contrarian as is the chart here... http://www.traders-t...?...101&hl=Russ The chart in the link is one I have not updated for a long time but was forecasting a major low for mid 2014 which is in like with two other methods, the kress cycle and the late Terry Laundy's T Theory. The mid 2014 date could easily turn into Oct. 2014 which the Kress cycle sees because that chart was done 5 years before the event so it is much harder to pin point from that far out, if I look at the chart now it may be pointing to that Oct. area more. I am also seeing a big low for the gold stocks in 2014 forming on the charts now, the chart is in need of more confirmation but is probably correct given the other methods mentioned. My account is up about 50% over the past year btw since you have insulted my trading.

The reason why you contradicted Larry is because of the mass pyschology. You didn't want to miss the next big rally. At that time, anyone with an opposing/ contrarian view will have seemed like an idiot. On this Gold and commodity board, many days back I quoted "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then..."
Why? Because anyone with an opposing view is detested. Anyone with a uberbullish view is respected. The higher the target someone quotes, the more he is respected. The higher % someone predicts, that is the right person today. If someone gives a target of 150$ for Silver, you read that essay with excitement. Because all of you are living in fantasies, dreams and looking at your investments in fiction. You want someone in video/ audio/ essay to juice up the future prediction. You want to spend time living that fantasy.

You don't want someone to spoil that dream. Who knows what would be the price of any investment over a period of time. But, people tend to clutch on to the only view that is on their side. Everyone else is an idiot. "Ignore the guy...." "this guy should be banned..." these are very common statements that come out for opposing views.

Socrates, Aristotle, Galileo, LarryT.....everyone of them had a contrarian view. All of them were stoned!

[Russ]

Sure people make bad predictions DrSP but that does not justify insulting them. You did not even read Irene's post carefully and falsely accused her of something she did not write. Whatever...lets all just hurl insults at each other for our faults.