145 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

Trendline magnet?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=13&mn=11&dy=0&i=p83945430624&a=271242504&r=7723.png


stubaby

bueno work and bueno targets, Senor will be patient

NO BS

Senor

[dougie]

337 is the 61.8% retrace

[dharma]

the last 2 days sure looked and felt like capitulation in the mining shares, the most hated investment vehicle of the present time. this will go 180. patience dharma

[tradermama]

I'm in the camp this is not capitulation yet but perhaps an oversold bounce just going to happen. I posted on my pnf thread recent alerts and why I feel this way along with the portfolio of miners/etfs/gold/silver. I hope I'm wrong but I'm 95% sure I'm not and rarely I come out and say things like this. But I wanted to post my alerts for those who are interested. Now, this doesn't mean gold and silver break their Dec 2011 lows..but I do think now we go under 1600/under 30..and now break 40 on gdx after a good bounce..this feels long in the tooth but until there is some fundamental news changes in the economy or some shock of some kind the bearish cycle continues hopefully stopping end of Feb/early March.

I look at this as opportunity coming just to be clear because I still believe in the long term bullish trend. We are starting to create a bubble in equities short term and now we are hearing it on the news expecting to break all time highs. I expect to see bull pictures on magazines next. When we top out is when the bull resumes in metals. This I believe is the contributing factor also why money is not going into metals. People are seeing the economy improving..and Jupiter which has two sides..either euphoric or panic..is taking it's postive side over equities but that will eventually change. So this could also be lining up with the low in metals/miners.

TM

From Merriman for next week:

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN AND COMMENTS FOR THE
WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 28, 2013
Raymond A. Merriman ©
Review and Preview

Many of the world equity markets (but not all) have moved higher into the Jupiter signatures of January 25-30. As stated last week, “… our attention now shifts to next week’s full moon of January 26 (a Saturday). This is actually in the midst of multiple important planetary signatures involving Jupiter. On January 25, the Sun will form a harmonious trine to the big guy (Jupiter). On January 30, the largest planet of our solar system will turn from retrograde to direct motion. On the same day, the Sun will form a square aspect to Saturn, which symbolically annoys the big guy.” When markets move up into such Jupiter transits, it oftentimes marks a pause or reversal. This could be the case now too, since the parabolic rate of motion up for many of these markets is not sustainable.

Yet not all markets moved higher last week. Some (like the NASDAQ Composite and Bovespa of Brazil) fell hard into Thursday of last week. The NASDAQ sell off was related to the double digit loss in the share price of Apple computers. This too was covered in last week’s explanation as follows: “But that’s not the only cosmic contradiction (as if the world needs more contradictions right now). From January 24-30, transiting Mars will form both a powerful square and trine to key components of the New York Stock Exchange chart (born May 17, 1792). It is not uncommon for the DJIA to have at least one triple digit decline around this time.” Well, the DJIA didn’t fall triple digits (yet), which is about .7%, but the NASDAQ futures did fall about three times that percentage.

What happened almost exactly as we anticipated, however, was the sharp decline in Gold and Silver last week. After reaching a nearly perfect Fibonacci retracement rally point of 3248.50 on January 23, March Silver sold off to as low of 3112 two days later on Friday, January 25 (actual Silver would be $31.12/ounce). The damage was even greater in Gold, which fell from 1695.90 on Tuesday, January 22, to a low of 1655 on Friday. It has more to go before meeting our target for the “Trade of the Year.”

Best Trade of the Week:

There were several nice trades initiated last week (NASDAQ, Soybeans, Crude Oil), and again many involving Gold and Silver. For example, Wednesday’s daily report advised for Silver, “Let’s sell short (March Silver) at 3240-3250 with a stop-loss on a close above 3250.” The high of the day and week was 3248.50, an exact Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the prior move down. Two days later, Silver was testing 3100. The MMA Weekly Report on Silver’s ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), advised, “Weekly SLV: You may now sell short again at 30.99-31.45 with a stop-
loss on a close above 31.50. The high of the week was 31.41 on Wednesday, and by Friday it was testing 30.00.

Short-Term Geocosmics

As mentioned in the introduction, we are now in the midst of two important Jupiter transits: the Sun trine Jupiter on January 25 and then Jupiter turning direct on January 30. Jupiter’s nature is to expand whatever the energy is going into its period of influence. If bullish, then markets go even higher. If bearish, then they fall harder than expected. Right now many equity markets are rising higher than most expected, and precious metals are falling harder than most expected.

In politics, leaders in the USA are getting along better than anyone expected. For example, Republicans and Democrats have successfully agreed upon extending the debt ceiling until mid-May, which seems to be a choice that most Americans agree with. It doesn’t solve the problem – it simply kicks the can down the road again – but at least they agree on that, with the belief that serious negotiations on solving the debt crisis will now begin. There is a sense of hope and an air of cooperation that has been missing since the start of this century. This too correlates with the dynamics of Jupiter. It could last into the summer, which means there is a good chance of other agreements being made that could provide a secure financial future for America. Or they can return to partisan squabbling once again as early as next week when Jupiter moves out of its orb of influence when February begins. You may remember that a couple of columns ago, I mentioned that the best part of Obama’s astrological cycle ends after January.

Longer-Term Thoughts on the Remarkable Uranus-Pluto Square – The Saga of the “Financial Twilight Zone” Continues….

“Jens Weidemann, Bundesbank president… described Japan’s new government’s pressure to make the BOJ (Bank of Japan) more proactive as an ‘alarming infringement’ of central bank independence, which could lead to the ‘politicisation of the exchange rate.” - Financial Times, London, January 24, 2013.

“Germany is the country whose exports have benefitted most from the euro area’s fixed exchange rate system. He’s (Weidemann) not in a position to criticize.” –Akiri Amari, Japan's Minister of Economy , Financial Times, London, January 24, 2013.
“The last time there was a competitive devaluation of currencies, it ended up where it did, in the Second World War.” Delma Rousseff, President of Brazil during her election campaign, 2010.

“Obama may be forced to choose: bombing Iran or an Iranian bomb.” – Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Wall Street Journal, January 2, 2013.

In all this discussion about currency wars, central bank monetary manipulation, irresponsible government fiscal management (and even mismanagement), there is one important historical correlation that continues to be overlooked and too conveniently dismissed: Financial Astrology. More specifically, the history and the symbolic themes posed by the most powerful and longest lasting planetary aspect of at least the past 100 years: Uranus square Pluto.

Forget the fact that this is the first time these two planets have be
en in a square aspect since 1931. Forget the fact that this is the most potent part of the 2008-2015 Cardinal Climax, a
planetary drama that last took place 1928-1934, and was outlined every year in our annual Forecast books since 1994, leading right up into the financial crisis that indeed did begin in 2008. No, that is what we did yesteryear. Let’s talk about now, within the context of the Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012 through March 17, 2015, a reality that we are thoroughly immersed in today.

Let’s start with the idea that Pluto rules debt. As such, it is one of the planets that has dominion over money. For what is money? It is credit and debt - and really, mostly debt. Somebody makes money and pays for goods or services, and thus has a credit. Somebody spends, and thus has a debt. If you spend more than you make, you are essentially in debt. If you fail to pay back what you borrowed and spent, then you eventually default, or go bankrupt. This happens frequently when Jupiter is in a hard aspect to Pluto. It can happen that one spends much more than one expected to spend when Jupiter is also in a hard aspect to Uranus. From mid-2013 through mid-2014, Jupiter will be in a hard aspect to both Pluto and Uranus. They are in a powerful T-square with one another. And they hit important planets in the charts of the United States, the European Union, and Iran. That is why it important to resolve the debt crisis by this summer: the favorable aspects end and the Uranus-Pluto-Jupiter T-square begins.

When a country’s central bank makes a decision to change its nation’s currency rate vis-à-vis that of other nations, it usually does so in order to adjust its economy. If its economy is too strong, it may raise interest rates in order to slow it down to a sustainable rate and thus avoid inflation. If its economy is too weak, it may lower interest rates in order to stimulate economic activity. It is willing to risk an uptick in inflation. That may lower its currency value too, so that nation’s companies can compete for a greater share of world markets, thus increasing domestic employment. When this starts becoming contagious – when several other countries all at once try to stimulate their economies by devaluing their currency - you get what you have today: currency wars. And historically, currency wars often precede the other kind of wars: military wars.

Did I mention Uranus was in Aries? Aries is the sign of combat, wars, disagreements that can escalate into destructive conflicts. Uranus is not a planet known for diplomacy or agreements. It likes to do things its own way – a lot like Aries. In a square aspect to Pluto, increasing debts can lead to currency wars, which - if not contained – can escalate into disputes that lead to… well, you get the idea.
What will be the end result? In my opinion, it will be a huge transformation of the value of currencies and indeed possibly even the concept of currency itself. I make it no secret that I believe the result will be a return to currencies backed by hard assets, like Gold, even though all the central bankers and all the politicians of the world oppose this view. They have to. Their existence and sense of importance depends upon the continuation of the illusion that fiat paper currency is solid, given the good will, promise, and trust of the governments which they back (or rather, who back the bankers).

Let me ask you something. Recently the U.S. government (was it the White House?) was scorned for floating the idea of minting a one-ounce Platinum coin and giving it a face value of $1 trillion. “Ridiculous!” “A farce that will do nothing to solve the real problems!” they shouted. True enough. It is a farce. It does nothing to solve the debt crisis, really. But is it any more of a farce than accepting that central banks can print fiat paper money out of thin air, then use that money to buy a nation’s bonds, and thereby make the nation “owe it” back that very money that was created out of nothing and is backed by nothing more than paper and “trust”? If the Fed and other central banks can create a U.S. debt payable in paper created out of thin air, then why can’t

the U.S. government pay back that debt by minting a Platinum coin that is worth a very tiny fraction of the value it stands for? It is a less farce.
The more honorable and patriotic act would be for central banks to forgive the debt of the nations that they hold – that they hold by virtual of the fact they can create “money out of nothing” to buy that nation’s debt. I proposed this idea two years ago during the first quantitative easing decision of the Federal Reserve Board. I suggested that the Fed make a deal with the White House and Congress: forgive the debt (or at least the $3T they added on during the 2008 meltdowns) in exchange for a balanced budget. That would be patriotic and it would work as long as the government kept their word (that is asking a lot, but they can do it if they choose to do it).
And now over two years later, other market commentators and economists are coming up with the same idea about central banks forgiving the debt of nations that they represent. Don’t worry: I am an astrologer and therefore I never fear that credit for these ideas will actually go to the source of where they came from, which is inside my own head. And I will never lack for creative ideas and solutions to current problems. It is why you read me… you never know what I am going to come up with, but you always know that it will be inspired by knowledge of the oldest science known to Man – Astrology.

But back to this moment, which I am trying to seize as I complete this European lecture tour to money managers in Amsterdam and bankers and investors in Zurich (yes, they ARE interested in Financial Astrology – just don’t tell anyone). There are many things government and banking leaders can do that would lead to a positive outcome of this Uranus-Pluto square. But they won’t get re-elected if they do – or so they think. So they instead pursue this path of currency wars, which will have a very bad ending if they don’t get a grip on reality soon - like, by mid-2013.

The Platinum coin idea is a farce and it won’t work, expect for three things. First, it would prevent a USA default because it would enable a temporary avoidance of the debt ceiling crisis whenever it arises. It will give leaders time to work out a responsible plan without defaulting and having its nation’s credit worthiness downgraded again (and the chaos that could create in world markets). Second, it would foster discussion on the farce that central banks print money out of thin air and then make taxpayers and governments responsible for paying it back with money they worked hard to earn. Third, that would then lead to serious discussions as to why the world needs to get back to a Gold Standard, or some sort of currency relationship that is backed by real assets, and not just the promise of the central banks and governments who are losing credibility fast.

It’s time for a new era of sanity. This could be the heroic legacy of the Uranus-Pluto square, especially given that there is also a grand trine this summer between Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune. This is the window of opportunity evolving right now. We should all pray that the leaders of the world themselves continue to seize this moment and rectify the financial atrocity they have co-created for our children’s future, and not fall down on their spiritual and humanistic duty to the world for which they were chosen – elected - to fulfill. Our hopes and dreams for a financially secure future rest in their hands. And as Barack Obama is fond of saying, “The time to act is now.” Quit this unwinnable path of currency wars, and return to a path where currencies – money – once again have a real value. Bring on that Platinum coin. It’s the first brilliant idea you have come up with, because it will lead us to an open discussion about what has happened with credit and debt since the 1960’s when the Uranus-Pluto cycle began - and how to correct it.

“The current political regimes do not trust the markets. It is fair to say that the distrust is mutual… More and more investors want real assets. They want out. They want something outside of the whole financial system where the authorities are becoming more and more repressive.

Trust has been lost. Sadly, not all investors have the flexibility to take their funds and park them outside of the financial system; they’re stuck.” Repressionomics; Ineichen Research & Management; www.ineichen-rm.com.

[dougie]

when the borad sell off begins, and it will, anyone think it doesnt take hte miners down more with it? sometimes we see divergences I know, but...

[tradermama]

when the borad sell off begins, and it will, anyone think it doesnt take hte miners down more with it? sometimes we see divergences I know, but...

FWIW...There is a long time band from Jan 25-Mar 6 when different markets could reverse at different times. The midpoint is Feb 14 so this is a key (3 star) reversal date per Merriman. This is similiar to Dec 14-Jan16 and that mid point was Dec 30th. Gold dropped to 1626 then rallied to 1697 and we know what the broads did. So if we are going down into this period, high odds a good rally. That said, for gold we need to break over and close over 1722 to get hopefully. At this time 1720 is pnf buy but that would come down lower if there is some up and down action prior to that.

No matter, it's the miners that look bad and they lead gold up in Sept for a nice promising rally. I would be watching them first for a sign..especially the royalty miners like Rgld and FV. Whether it is "the bottom" we won't know till we see the structure. I honestly feel that we need a catalyst of some kind to get a rally going in gold..I get daily updates on mortgage rates and they are inching up but until I see them go over 4% ..it's just a range for now. If we start getting over that then perhaps the Fed is loosing control and that would be a good catalyst for gold as I believe the QE3 has been parked in bonds and will then get out into the system..hence gold going back up..inflationary

TM

[stubaby]

"Beach-Ball" being 'pushed' under water again - looking for equal and opposite reaction beginning this week!


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p81835512148&a=259871928&r=2957.png


stubaby

[dharma]

armstrong- only the last several years have i gotten to read armstrong. i cant say the validity or not of his work. i know he created a ponzi scheme and did time for such. of course there are other view points on this. one of my friends who knew him back when , said he was a lousy short term trader. that being said. for myself i constantly reference the bull of 72-80. there was a 50% haircut right in the middel gold went from 204-102 so, for me it is still in the realm of possibility. which the 1100s that marty calls for , for me is not unreasonable or out of the question. i do think the lows come between now and may. the key for me is th e1520 lows.
the feds balance sheet is directly correlated to the gold price. http://www.graceland...13jan28fed1.png
overlay the gold chart on that. http://www.graceland...13jan28fed2.png
w/o rising gold prices, miners performance will continue to be in the doldrums, costs for mining are increasing. to offset that we need rising gold prices. or the ratio will continue to press lows.
and you said riding a bull is a piece of cake. rubbish!
dharma

[dharma]

by the way the 1st day of trading @the comex was 12/31/74 @9:45 am i keep a gold astrological chart handy dharma

[senorBS]

Hey Dharma, what's the latest Hulbert HGNSI reading? Gracias in advance Senor