145 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

not too many rich technicians
charts are painted pictures
getting you to see what the big money wants you to see
above posts are encouraging to me
w/that being said i dont see much till near the end of feb
dharma

Dharma,
My post has nothing to do with sentiment but supply/demand and last time I called the RS for gdx turning to O was in March while everyone was waiting for a bottom. Now, I'm not saying you or I am wrong but I'm stating what the facts are for pnf which has kept money in my pocket. There are no targets for me with that weakness and pnf is not for short term trading. But when you get these RS and trend changes..it's not one of those quick flips..and I respect those turns...Nothing is 100% but these two changes I'll put 95% on it that we are going no where for a while longer. So with that said I'm hoping for a bottom in Feb/ march or I should say and end of the correction but it could also mean some sideways action also. Pnf can't catch bottoms just help manage your risk even for a long term investor.
You and I are in agreement about near end of Feb or possibly into March. Long term nothing has changed but those who are trying to catch bottoms for short term trading might want to be quick in their trading.
TM

[dharma]

ok folks, my point is we continue to get more and more bearish sentiment. the feeling in the market is heavy the miners continue to lose ground to the metal the metal is above the 1626 lows. of course technical indicators are going to turn bearish! i dont care if one person or a 100 agree w/me, in fact i would prefer it if no one agreed w/me. guys grab the tail of the elephant and then describe the elephant. i had debates w/paul van eeden telling him his valuation methods were rubbish - i was more diplomatic than that. fortunately for him he got into mining management. otherwise he would have gone broke. anyway, we were spinning our wheels the last couple of days. unable to make any upside progress as i keep repeating between 1520-1805 is of little interest for me. cycles are bottoming anytime now or out to may. most , like last time will miss the move and chase. stu-apparently in todays world miners have little to do w/the price of gold. folks, in this inflationary environment, see mining costs rising. that will take care of itself when the metal starts rising. until then the miners very well could be dead money dharma

[tria]

Just imagine,
If the GDX price action from May 2012, turns out to be a (1),(2) and a 1,2 wave. The current wave 2 must bottom soon but above the $40.00 mark, the bottom of wave (2) so as to obey EW rules.
Where 3 and (3) tops, I leave it to your wild imagination.

If however the price action from May 2012 was an A,B,C look out below.
The drop since last September however, looks more corrective to me than impulsing.

Bottom line is risk is about 3.5 points and reward more than 30.00 points.

Not sure of the outcome, just saying.
In any case, I have to wait for tomorrow's GDX (many calls with strike 43.00 expire) and the 1/28 Feb futures Gold options expiration before giving a more definite verdict.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p05544352733

-tria

[tradermama]

Just imagine,
If the GDX price action from May 2012, turns out to be a (1),(2) and a 1,2 wave. The current wave 2 must bottom soon but above the $40.00 mark, the bottom of wave (2) so as to obey EW rules.
Where 3 and (3) tops, I leave it to your wild imagination.

If however the price action from May 2012 was an A,B,C look out below.
The drop since last September however, looks more corrective to me than impulsing.

Bottom line is risk is about 3.5 points and reward more than 30.00 points.

Not sure of the outcome, just saying.
In any case, I have to wait for tomorrow's GDX (many calls with strike 43.00 expire) and the 1/28 Feb futures Gold options expiration before giving a more definite verdict.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p05544352733

-tria

Tria,
I just got an alert today for a 2nd sell signal on gdx..target 36..it may or may not get there..but the fact the RS turned to O yesterday and early Dec a negative trend changes leads me to believe 40 area will get tested . Only fundamental news imo can change all this negativity for miners/metals at this time ..but hey, we can still be ranged bound too...the stalling around 1700 on gold just doesn't look good at this time. I'm still long term bullish ..

[dharma]

kyle bass on the subject of the yen
http://kylebassblog....ll-hit-200.html
dharma

[senorBS]

with today's big drop in HUI-GDX-XAU the gold/gold stock ratios are getting very close to the 2008 collapse lows - muy interesting NO BS Senor

Edited by senorBS, 25 January 2013 - 11:19 AM.

[goldfungus]

with today's big drop in HUI-GDX-XAU the gold/gold stock ratios are getting very close to the 2008 collapse lows - muy interesting

NO BS

Senor

Absolutely agree. If one is betting on an inflationary outcome this is a place to buy at least a starter position. unfortunately I already have more than that.

[dharma]

w/the earnings of nem and iag the other day, the earnings showed. rising costs. this will in time be offset by rising gold prices, until that occurs. expect pain in the miners. jim sinclair posted a piece last night that is worthy of a read. jsmineset.com my parameters are still in play 1525-1805 more noise. expect skirmishes between now and beginning of may. while the battles occur , observe the rising debt observe the flow of gold from west to east observe the rising wealth in the east. after ww2 the usa was country of savers. the usa emerged from the depression and war, w/cash which was invested. and the usa emerged as the world leader in finances. today the far east is in that same situation. i expect the top callers/end of the bull to get loud. real loud. dharma keep in mind that a rising fed balance has a direct correlation to rising gold prices. dont worry the next fed head will deal w/the rising fed balance sheet and so it goes from sir allan to ben to----. yup the next guy will take care of it bridge for sale! bridge for sale!

Edited by dharma, 25 January 2013 - 11:45 AM.

[stubaby]

Trendline magnet?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=13&mn=11&dy=0&i=p83945430624&a=271242504&r=7723.png


stubaby

[dharma]

Trendline magnet?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=13&mn=11&dy=0&i=p83945430624&a=271242504&r=7723.png


stubaby

YES! been watching that! its a possibility!
dharma