27 replies to this topic

[Kimston]

"• Market Vane's bullish gold consensus dropped to 49% in February, the lowest reading on record and only seen previously for a single day at the important gold bottom in 2008."

Don't believe everything you read on the Internet. Various sentiment indicators are getting pretty oversold on the metals, but 49% is not even close to the lowest reading on record for Market Vane on gold. It might be the lowest in the last 5 to 10 years, but I've seen readings in teens and single digits during the 20-year bear from the 1981 top. Here's a sample of an old issue that shows a 52 week range of sentiment readings as a high of 57 and low of 13 (not sure which year the sample is from). There will be great short covering rallies, but I think they should be viewed as selling opportunities until the intermediate trend changes.

Kimston

[fib_1618]

Various sentiment indicators are getting pretty oversold on the metals, but 49% is not even close to the lowest reading on record for Market Vane on gold

Updated breadth charts on Friday show new all time lows in the 70 PM basket and new 4 year lows in the XAU.

If we use money as the ultimate sentiment tool, then yes, we're not anywhere near a bottom at this time.

First clue of a bottom? When Direxion declares a 10:1 reverse split on NUGT...not before.

Fib

[Kimston]

Various sentiment indicators are getting pretty oversold on the metals, but 49% is not even close to the lowest reading on record for Market Vane on gold

Updated breadth charts on Friday show new all time lows in the 70 PM basket and new 4 year lows in the XAU.

If we use money as the ultimate sentiment tool, then yes, we're not anywhere near a bottom at this time.

First clue of a bottom? When Direxion declares a 10:1 reverse split on NUGT...not before.

Fib

Another sign of a more sustainable bottom will be when John Paulson capitulates on his massive long position in GLD. It's deja vu all over again. Last time it was the billionaire Hunt brothers with massive silver holdings.

Kimston

[tomterrific14]

Various sentiment indicators are getting pretty oversold on the metals, but 49% is not even close to the lowest reading on record for Market Vane on gold

Updated breadth charts on Friday show new all time lows in the 70 PM basket and new 4 year lows in the XAU.

If we use money as the ultimate sentiment tool, then yes, we're not anywhere near a bottom at this time.

First clue of a bottom? When Direxion declares a 10:1 reverse split on NUGT...not before.

Fib

Another sign of a more sustainable bottom will be when John Paulson capitulates on his massive long position in GLD. It's deja vu all over again. Last time it was the billionaire Hunt brothers with massive silver holdings.

Paulon's holding of GLD are 21.8 million sh. Toral sh out standing GLD are 416.6 million. He holds, 5.2% of GLD.

The record low Market Vane Bullishness was 9% at 1999 bottom (Gold under 300).

Kimston

[tria]

Gold should not fly but should just rise a bit this week. I will be pleasantly surprised if the $1600 level is challenged this week but do not believe it will be. -tria

[Kimston]

Various sentiment indicators are getting pretty oversold on the metals, but 49% is not even close to the lowest reading on record for Market Vane on gold

Updated breadth charts on Friday show new all time lows in the 70 PM basket and new 4 year lows in the XAU.

If we use money as the ultimate sentiment tool, then yes, we're not anywhere near a bottom at this time.

First clue of a bottom? When Direxion declares a 10:1 reverse split on NUGT...not before.

Fib

Another sign of a more sustainable bottom will be when John Paulson capitulates on his massive long position in GLD. It's deja vu all over again. Last time it was the billionaire Hunt brothers with massive silver holdings.

Paulon's holding of GLD are 21.8 million sh. Toral sh out standing GLD are 416.6 million. He holds, 5.2% of GLD.

The record low Market Vane Bullishness was 9% at 1999 bottom (Gold under 300).

Of his fund's $21 billion in assets, 44% of it is in U.S. traded equities tied to bullion. With that big of a bet, odds are he will eventually be forced to sell one way or another at some point. HUI is eventually going sub 100 in my opinion.

Kimston

[dougie]

Before new highs?

Various sentiment indicators are getting pretty oversold on the metals, but 49% is not even close to the lowest reading on record for Market Vane on gold

Updated breadth charts on Friday show new all time lows in the 70 PM basket and new 4 year lows in the XAU.

If we use money as the ultimate sentiment tool, then yes, we're not anywhere near a bottom at this time.

First clue of a bottom? When Direxion declares a 10:1 reverse split on NUGT...not before.

Fib

Another sign of a more sustainable bottom will be when John Paulson capitulates on his massive long position in GLD. It's deja vu all over again. Last time it was the billionaire Hunt brothers with massive silver holdings.

Paulon's holding of GLD are 21.8 million sh. Toral sh out standing GLD are 416.6 million. He holds, 5.2% of GLD.

The record low Market Vane Bullishness was 9% at 1999 bottom (Gold under 300).

Of his fund's $21 billion in assets, 44% of it is in U.S. traded equities tied to bullion. With that big of a bet, odds are he will eventually be forced to sell one way or another at some point. HUI is eventually going sub 100 in my opinion.

Kimston

[fib_1618]

First clue of a bottom? When Direxion declares a 10:1 reverse split on NUGT...not before.

Well, it's not 10:1, but it is 5:1 as of April 1st.

Position yourselves accordingly.

Fib