21 replies to this topic

[thoughtpwr]

I am trying to be objective about whether the gold stocks are headed higher or lower near term. The fact that we had a gap up the day prior to today's selloff tells me that the candlesticks are showing a continuation pattern on the up move. Filling the gap immediately with a black candlestick is normally that formation. It is not uncommon for the fourth day to go a little deeper on a retest (or it just goes higher), however the volume on NEM (which I am using as a surrogate for not having XAU volume) shows a considerably smaller volume on the retest. I would say short of price action that says otherwise, the gold stocks still have a good chance of heading higher. I would say they get to 96 yet, before tanking. Unfortuantely, the HUI does not show the same formation, but many of the individual stocks have the same structure and held support today. I detect a triple bottom being put in in the last four days with a good probability in most stocks for a short term run. We really are in a seasonal weak period, which is a definite negative for silver. What is interesting is the fact that so many former bull gurus have come out of the woodwork to be bearish on the stocks right now.

[stockbucks_coffee]

thanks for your comments, ThoughtPwr. Heading into Monday morning I was bullish and anticipated an up day but the gold/silver stocks closed slightly down instead. Also my s/t indicators turned down today too. I'll likely lock in my profits Tuesday morning and see how the XAU/HUI react to the current down trendline (from the late March and late May highs) and the 50 dma. But I anticipate the May 7 low will hold as an IT bottom. Good luck trading, SBC.

[TomD]

I was a little surpried that there was no follow through..but it seems everything gold really is joined to the hip to the USD which can throw off short term gold TA from an EWA perpective it seems we should be going up in a c wave at the least if not a 3.....but right now the 50dma is the near term line in the sand I see no great increase in bearish gurus..oh sure..maybe a few talking corrections..but stocks have been killed by 3/4...but most of the big names are still very bullish and no one within the gold community except for Kerns has called for a renewed bear market lots of titles like "major buy alert" and "clear sailing ahead" read a line which i think is appropriate "stubborn money will get smoked"...and that long or short

[mss]

"stubborn money will get smoked"...and that long or short

How true, how true!

[stockbucks_coffee]

i'm out now after holding a week. let's see if the xau/hui will pullback or will move higher

[SilentOne]

Looks like the XAU is working on the 50 dma, and the target is the 200 dma.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$xau,uu[l,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&r=6345.gif

cheers,

john

[bobalou]

NORTON KNOW'S;;;;;WHAT IS IT??? I THINK SHORT COVERING,WILL PUSH STOCKS UP/+GOLD.AND THE STOCKS GO W/ MARKET?? .MARKET UP?

[stockbucks_coffee]

i'm out now after holding a week. let's see if the xau/hui will pullback or will move higher

yeah, I'll give it a day or two...if it holds here I'll load up and go long. Let's see if it can test and hold or drop instead.

[swanstkdh]

gold rsi, look at the rsi. looking like another low before high. Higher low? or lower

[stockbucks_coffee]

gold rsi, look at the rsi. looking like another low before high. Higher low? or lower

yeah hard to tell until it passes the test (now that sounded weird)

I just don't want to be around on the initial test of the 50dma and the down trendline from the late March & late May highs.

yesterday had 2 to 1 ratio of down to up gold/silver stocks on my streamer. so far today looks okay...2 to 1 up to down stocks. but have to see how the testing of resistances go. SBC.