58 replies to this topic

[tomterrific14]

New Target Area:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=W&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&i=p71563059095&a=261980388&r=272.png


stubaby

Posted in FF: http://www.traders-t...howtopic=145982

Not only is nominal XAU price below 2009 low, but also, $XAU:$GOLD (when Gold was under $700), and the ratio now @8% is the lowest in history, including the inception of the Gold bull market, when Gold was $275 AND at the lows of 1941, after the Pearl Harbor attack.

In every instance when the $XAU:$GOLD bottomed, a very substantial rally ensued.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery....;XAU:$GOLD

I liken the now ratio of 8% as a long term call option on the price of GOLD, as obviously Miners profits are tied to GOLD.

And anecdotally, the 8% ratio to Gold, is like having the VIX at 8 (when the all time low is 10) for the SPX, except that the term duartion is not 3 month, but long term, as the Miners produce Gold in perpetuity.....kinda like a put option on the SPX with a 20% lower premium that the all time low on the VIX of 10. (10-8=2 divived by 10-20%)....with the SPX at all time highs.

Something has to give to bring reversion to the mean in that XAU:GOLD ratio......GOLD to 1200, 1300, 1400.? What then would be the XAU ratio to Gold be....5%.....are their proven and probable reserves near worthless.? Already they are valued at the lowest since 1941 when compared to the prevailing price of GOLD.

Can they go lower.? sure, if GOLD goes lower than 1500. But it may not be a timely speculation, just as shorting the VIX may not be at 8.

For a bear on the Miners, it may be a better trade to short GOLD by buying the inverse GOLD etf, like GLL.

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?GLL on the assumption that GOLD will catch up to the downside with the Miners.

Often when a historic low or high is bettered, it is a bear or bull trap....like the INDU high in 2007 over the 2000 High was a bull trap.

Similarly, the recent XAU low taking out the 2009 low, may very well be a bear trap, as all stop loss orders were triggered.....volume yesterday was climatic at over 40 million shares...and over 5 million in NUGT, including my measely 50 share purchase....LOL

@stu

You mught be interested in these long term charts of XAU:GOLD and HUI:GOLD

http://goldsilverwor...arts-till-2012/

See them both by clicking. The HUI ratio is now on the lower 95% regression trendline at 20%.

[dharma]

dont know if you saw this yesterday
http://www.reuters.c...E93216U20130404
the boj enters the fray in a big way.
gold moves trough to trough 15-21 weeks
this is 21 weeks this week
was that it?
not my job to figure that out.
but it sure looks like 3 drives to a bottom to me
hgnsi plunged yesterday =-31.3%
dharma
seems to me to get to the feds goals, 1 ttttttttttttrillion a year is not going to be enough
have you been drinking the kool aid?

Edited by dharma, 05 April 2013 - 09:18 AM.

[stubaby]

dont know if you saw this yesterday
http://www.reuters.c...E93216U20130404
the boj enters the fray in a big way.
gold moves trough to trough 15-21 weeks
this is 21 weeks this week
was that it?
not my job to figure that out.
but it sure looks like 3 drives to a bottom to me
hgnsi plunged yesterday =-31.3%
dharma
seems to me to get to the feds goals, 1 ttttttttttttrillion a year is not going to be enough
have you been drinking the kool aid?

dharma:

HUI bounced off the 50% FIB of the entire bull move (317) yesterday morning - just what you would expect, whether BULL or BEAR. Next up is the 35-150 line and the early march lows (337) that need to be overcome - after slicing down through both on Tuesday. A "gap" back through this area on Monday or Tuesday could prove interesting OR a failure there could lead to more sell-off. I will be watching this price are intently for clues, FWIW


stubaby

[tomterrific14]

dont know if you saw this yesterday
http://www.reuters.c...E93216U20130404
the boj enters the fray in a big way.
gold moves trough to trough 15-21 weeks
this is 21 weeks this week
was that it?
not my job to figure that out.
but it sure looks like 3 drives to a bottom to me
hgnsi plunged yesterday =-31.3%
dharma
seems to me to get to the feds goals, 1 ttttttttttttrillion a year is not going to be enough
have you been drinking the kool aid?

dharma:

HUI bounced off the 50% FIB of the entire bull move (317) yesterday morning - just what you would expect, whether BULL or BEAR. Next up is the 35-150 line and the early march lows (337) that need to be overcome - after slicing down through both on Tuesday. A "gap" back through this area on Monday or Tuesday could prove interesting OR a failure there could lead to more sell-off. I will be watching this price are intently for clues, FWIW


stubaby

http://www.321gold.c...artt040513.html

[dharma]

stu, hui @ this point is a lagging indicator. yes, i see where we hit the 50% fib and are bouncing gold:silver ratio- ratios are elastic. go back to the great depression the ratio got way out in the stratosphere. while i respect sprott. that 16:1 ratio is not happening in this bull . no cbs are buying silver, to my knowledge . while many are buying gold as for this being the bottom ,its a tough call lots of the pieces are in place . now we have to see if price follows suit. japan getting into the qe fold cant be underestimated. they have lost their competitive edge , we will see to what extant they are going to monetize. weekly and monthly oscillators on mining indexes are oversold. i think the hgnsi @-31.3% is the lowest i have seen dharma

[tomterrific14]

stu,
hui @ this point is a lagging indicator. yes, i see where we hit the 50% fib and are bouncing
gold:silver ratio- ratios are elastic. go back to the great depression the ratio got way out in the stratosphere. while i respect sprott. that 16:1 ratio is not happening in this bull . no cbs are buying silver, to my knowledge . while many are buying gold
as for this being the bottom ,its a tough call lots of the pieces are in place . now we have to see if price follows suit.
japan getting into the qe fold cant be underestimated. they have lost their competitive edge , we will see to what extant they are going to monetize.
weekly and monthly oscillators on mining indexes are oversold. i think the hgnsi @-31.3% is the lowest i have seen
dharma

COT for GOLD

http://snalaska.com/...t/charts/GC.png

Commercials Net postion, less short
Large Specs " , more short
Small Specs " , more short

See chart in link below

http://www.decisionp...om/tac/ORD.html

[stubaby]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p01931722420&a=298316016&r=3976.png

[Psycho]

Tria, posted this link to a short search engine in this thread but it stopped working some years ago. Is anyone familiar with something similar now that works?

http://www.schaeffer...volpcratio.aspx

Edited by Psycho, 02 February 2021 - 06:26 PM.

[Psycho]

http://www.schaeffer...volpcratio.aspx