Are we making a generational top in stocks?
Posted 02 September 2013 - 09:58 PM
Posted 08 September 2013 - 01:24 PM
Well, I would point out that the ETF for the DOW 30 has already hit the upper trendline.
I would also point out that the last major megaphone pattern was back in the 1966 to 1973 period. In the S&P, the market never made it to the upper trendline. After the 1973 peak, the market melted down into the 1974 low and took out prior swing lows of the pattern in the process.
There are no guarantees when forecasting market movements, but the weight of the evidence I'm looking at (and have posted about) suggests we follow the path after the 1966-73 megaphone pattern.
Posted 09 September 2013 - 11:28 AM
Posted 23 September 2013 - 08:56 PM
I also posted a link to a chart a few weeks back showing margin debt at or near all time highs. You don't borrow money to leverage up in stocks if you're bearish.
Forget the polls and follow the money. The fat lady may or may not be singing yet, but she is at least clearing her throat. If the topping process continues, the latest date I have in 2013 for it to complete is around November 27.
Posted 22 October 2013 - 09:21 PM
Posted 01 December 2013 - 01:07 PM
>NDX makes a higher high around 12/12
>SPX makes a lower high or double top around 12/12
>DJIA may or may not make a new high around 12/12, but I would like to see the 16180 to 16200 range hit (6 point miss may be close enough)
>After 12/12 my cycle work suggests hard down to late Dec or first few trading days of Jan.
>"IF" we get a low around 1/2/14 (+/- a few trading days), we may get another rally into around 3/26/14 (probably to new highs basis the NDX) for a last hurrah before all longer term cycles roll over. The timing for the last hurrah peak (should it occur) in SPX and DJIA is earlier Mar 2014, and I think it's 50/50 on whether these indicies make new highs or lower highs in Mar.
Keep in mind, time and price projections have not worked well in the era of perpetual QE. DYODD.
Posted 19 December 2013 - 10:17 PM
Posted 26 December 2013 - 01:50 AM
Posted 09 January 2014 - 09:58 PM
Posted 18 January 2014 - 06:53 AM