320 replies to this topic

[dharma]

right in right here right now, there are alot of factors that called the june 28th lows were the bear market lows. time bands put this as a real possibility, however @this point there exists the possibility that lower lows are in the cards, i give it about a 30% chance . if that possibility comes into play , then it will occur before november plays out. as i said the other day, sentiment remains stubbornly bearish

dharma

agree and that is why I am being muy careful with only light trading positions, too many possibilities

Senor

prudent!
i have to continually remind myself to be prudent!. the fundamental picture gets brighter and brighter. a tttttttttttrillion dollars a year being printed in the usa alone. and the rest of world is also printing away. debts world wide continue to climb. the feds balance sheet continues to expand. w/o their bond buying interest rates would continue to climb. inflation is not a worry of mine, stagflation is more realistic. the hole we are in is just too deflationary. when does banks viability come into question? when does govts viability come into question?
we are in a twilight period here. the belief is we can fix it all. and yet w/keynes thought alive and well @the fed and world wide leadership dazed and confused w/not a statesman to be found. reality has not pressed its way to the fore.
12 years of bull . hgiher highs has to be some kind of record. it makes sense in spite of the backdrop that the excess of 12 years needed to be corrected. now what? patience
dharma

Edited by dharma, 26 September 2013 - 10:14 AM.

[senorBS]

right in right here right now, there are alot of factors that called the june 28th lows were the bear market lows. time bands put this as a real possibility, however @this point there exists the possibility that lower lows are in the cards, i give it about a 30% chance . if that possibility comes into play , then it will occur before november plays out. as i said the other day, sentiment remains stubbornly bearish

dharma

agree and that is why I am being muy careful with only light trading positions, too many possibilities

Senor

prudent!
i have to continually remind myself to be prudent!. the fundamental picture gets brighter and brighter. a tttttttttttrillion dollars a year being printed in the usa alone. and the rest of world is also printing away. debts world wide continue to climb. the feds balance sheet continues to expand. w/o their bond buying interest rates would continue to climb. inflation is not a worry of mine, stagflation is more realistic. the hole we are in is just too deflationary. when does banks viability come into question? when does govts viability come into question?
we are in a twilight period here. the belief is we can fix it all. and yet w/keynes thought alive and well @the fed and world wide leadership dazed and confused w/not a statesman to be found. reality has not pressed its way to the fore.
12 years of bull . hgiher highs has to be some kind of record. it makes sense in spite of the backdrop that the excess of 12 years needed to be corrected. now what? patience
dharma

my main concern is for a final several day to a couple week capitulation washout below the June lows, I don't think it would last long but percentage wise it could be really nasty, I'm with you and give it perhaps 1 in 3 odds, I currently think the June lows were likely final bottoms, but gotta be flexible here

Senor

[dharma]

on t

right in right here right now, there are alot of factors that called the june 28th lows were the bear market lows. time bands put this as a real possibility, however @this point there exists the possibility that lower lows are in the cards, i give it about a 30% chance . if that possibility comes into play , then it will occur before november plays out. as i said the other day, sentiment remains stubbornly bearish

dharma

agree and that is why I am being muy careful with only light trading positions, too many possibilities

Senor

prudent!
i have to continually remind myself to be prudent!. the fundamental picture gets brighter and brighter. a tttttttttttrillion dollars a year being printed in the usa alone. and the rest of world is also printing away. debts world wide continue to climb. the feds balance sheet continues to expand. w/o their bond buying interest rates would continue to climb. inflation is not a worry of mine, stagflation is more realistic. the hole we are in is just too deflationary. when does banks viability come into question? when does govts viability come into question?
we are in a twilight period here. the belief is we can fix it all. and yet w/keynes thought alive and well @the fed and world wide leadership dazed and confused w/not a statesman to be found. reality has not pressed its way to the fore.
12 years of bull . hgiher highs has to be some kind of record. it makes sense in spite of the backdrop that the excess of 12 years needed to be corrected. now what? patience
dharma

my main concern is for a final several day to a couple week capitulation washout below the June lows, I don't think it would last long but percentage wise it could be really nasty, I'm with you and give it perhaps 1 in 3 odds, I currently think the June lows were likely final bottoms, but gotta be flexible here

Senor

on the same page, its a matter of economic survival.
dharma

[dougie]

"my main concern is for a final several day to a couple week capitulation washout below the June lows" 80% odds

[senorBS]

"my main concern is for a final several day to a couple week capitulation washout below the June lows"
80% odds

hmmm - 80%? Anytime I assign something 80% odds I take a position whether short or long. So are you short with your 80% odds or is this just flinging a BS number off the hip?

Senor

[senorBS]

The big near term Q is whether an abc rally from 1305 just ended at 1345 or a wave three from 1319 is unfolding, this basis hourly charts. The current decline from 1345 to 1335 puts us at a critical near term juncture, a sustained decline below 1328-1330 would indicate a decline to at least below 1305 is unfolding and maybe a bueno bit lower, a rally back above 1345 would indicate a tres wave was unfolding and a rally toward 1400 underway. We see, I remain long my miner trading position but will exit on a sustained gold decline below 1328. Senor

[dharma]

not inspirational in here to say the least we have the debt ceiling on deck what these bozos do may or may not be good for the country . in the big picture they will raise the ceiling politicians will continue to spend , so @some point , after all the pomp is behind they will raise the ceiling in the meantime lets see what happens. as senor points out breaking one way or the other will establish the parameters. for now . its ho hum time waiting for the tip of hand dharma

[senorBS]

not inspirational in here to say the least
we have the debt ceiling on deck
what these bozos do may or may not be good for the country . in the big picture they will raise the ceiling
politicians will continue to spend , so @some point , after all the pomp is behind they will raise the ceiling
in the meantime lets see what happens.
as senor points out breaking one way or the other will establish the parameters. for now . its ho hum time
waiting for the tip of hand
dharma

it is also end of Quarter time and that IMO appears to be putting some pressure on gold stocks, there are so many crosscurrents here. My best guess is that in most gold and silver related stuff we are building right shoulders and the trading may remain like this for at least a few if not several weeks more (though a quick norte move would not surprise me - who is expecting that?). Of course we cannot rule out a final plunge but I do think that less probable at this time.

Dharma 5-day DSI is now at 37% Gold Bulls, 10-day at 39%. what is HGNSI at?

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 27 September 2013 - 10:12 AM.

[Russ]

Wedge on 60 minute Gold chart has broken out, it measures to 1410.

[dharma]

china closed 1-7 good time to bash the metals
http://in.reuters.co...E98Q03M20130927
HGNSI unchanged yesterday at -13.3%. MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell a point today to 40%, which was last seen on Tuesday’s low before Wednesday’s rally as well as on Tuesday before last week’s FOMC rally. sentiment suggests another pop
this is seasonally the strong time of year. w/the imports being clarified in india, lets see what that brings
dharma