"my main concern is for a final several day to a couple week capitulation washout below the June lows"
80% odds
hmmm - 80%? Anytime I assign something 80% odds I take a position whether short or long. So are you short with your 80% odds or is this just flinging a BS number off the hip?
Senor
seasonal weak time of the year
Started by
dharma
, Jul 26 2013 09:47 AM
320 replies to this topic
#311
dougie
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 9,061 posts
Member
Posted 27 September 2013 - 12:01 PM
no i have 80% dry powder
#313
Russ
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 7,199 posts
Member
Posted 27 September 2013 - 02:13 PM
I am seeing the potential for the dollar to go down into the Christmas time period looking at the horizon's us dollar index etf, this is a preliminary view that will require more confirmation, that of course means gold will go up a great deal. This also ties in with my GDX gold miners index trend for a high in Dec.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#314
tradermama
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 909 posts
Member
Posted 27 September 2013 - 02:50 PM
Russ,
I am seeing the potential for the dollar to go down into the Christmas time period looking at the horizon's us dollar index etf, this is a preliminary view that will require more confirmation, that of course means gold will go up a great deal. This also ties in with my GDX gold miners index trend for a high in Dec.
On the pnf thread which I update..I posted that the $ made a negative trend in Sept...so this jives to what you are saying.. a new pnf positive trend for gold now is at 1360
Have a good weekend
TM
#315
Russ
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 7,199 posts
Member
Posted 27 September 2013 - 03:21 PM
I am seeing the potential for the dollar to go down into the Christmas time period looking at the horizon's us dollar index etf, this is a preliminary view that will require more confirmation, that of course means gold will go up a great deal. This also ties in with my GDX gold miners index trend for a high in Dec... Russ
Russ,
On the pnf thread which I update..I posted that the $ made a negative trend in Sept...so this jives to what you are saying.. a new pnf positive trend for gold now is at 1360
Have a good weekend
TM
Sounds good TM, have a good weekend too. I am long nugget now.
Edited by Russ, 27 September 2013 - 03:24 PM.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#316
tria
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 2,325 posts
Member
Posted 29 September 2013 - 10:40 AM
It looks much better for Gold short term now and despite of any potential Euro weakness due to Italy's political problems and the Commercials having gone heavily short as of last Tuesday.
I will increase my trading futures position to 1/2 asap.
http://snalaska.com/...t/charts/EC.png
-tria
I will increase my trading futures position to 1/2 asap.
http://snalaska.com/...t/charts/EC.png
-tria
In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky
#317
dougie
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 9,061 posts
Member
Posted 29 September 2013 - 07:02 PM
what got you long nugget Russ?
I am seeing the potential for the dollar to go down into the Christmas time period looking at the horizon's us dollar index etf, this is a preliminary view that will require more confirmation, that of course means gold will go up a great deal. This also ties in with my GDX gold miners index trend for a high in Dec... Russ
Russ,
On the pnf thread which I update..I posted that the $ made a negative trend in Sept...so this jives to what you are saying.. a new pnf positive trend for gold now is at 1360
Have a good weekend
TM
Sounds good TM, have a good weekend too. I am long nugget now.
#318
Russ
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 7,199 posts
Member
Posted 30 September 2013 - 10:39 AM
[quote]name='dougie' date='Sep 29 2013, 05:02 PM' post='672314']
what got you long nugget Russ?[/quote]
Here's a reason, note the moneyflow level and what is has produced everytime it gets there...
http://stockcharts.c...80555444142.png
what got you long nugget Russ?[/quote]
Here's a reason, note the moneyflow level and what is has produced everytime it gets there...
http://stockcharts.c...80555444142.png
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#320
dharma
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 9,621 posts
Member
Posted 30 September 2013 - 11:58 AM
the press is now painting no matter what happens as gold bearish.
this guy is not impressed http://www.graceland...3aug13gold1.PNG
the gold market is close to make or break time. oscillators are scraping near the lows. which i take to =
not much downside left. @least for right now
the broad market seemed to be saying congress and the pres would get together and raise the debt ceiling no problem
hello reality. its about the politicians, not about the economy. and all this taking place in october, the month
where a #of crashes have occurred in the broad market. i am a gold long term bull, but in this environment
better to be quite cautious. i am not of the mind the solution is near @hand. the long run if they screw things up
here and now tapering, will remain a thought, but nothing more. eventually they will be adding to the qe
who is going to buy the bonds anyway???
then you have miners scrapping plans for new mine development. utilizing the high grade veins to compensate for the lower gold price
= down the road there is going to be supply problems. and the steady flow of gold from west to east continues.
pick the year fro the return of the bull. its in the cards. the settlements on comex @some point will all be paper.
then when india unleashes its buyers, coupled w/the chinese. the price gets squeezed.
all down the road
for now its skewering the bull
dharma
the 1st rule of a trader is survival. no matter what he thinks. its having the coin to fight another battle. patience lots and lots of patience
this guy is not impressed http://www.graceland...3aug13gold1.PNG
the gold market is close to make or break time. oscillators are scraping near the lows. which i take to =
not much downside left. @least for right now
the broad market seemed to be saying congress and the pres would get together and raise the debt ceiling no problem
hello reality. its about the politicians, not about the economy. and all this taking place in october, the month
where a #of crashes have occurred in the broad market. i am a gold long term bull, but in this environment
better to be quite cautious. i am not of the mind the solution is near @hand. the long run if they screw things up
here and now tapering, will remain a thought, but nothing more. eventually they will be adding to the qe
who is going to buy the bonds anyway???
then you have miners scrapping plans for new mine development. utilizing the high grade veins to compensate for the lower gold price
= down the road there is going to be supply problems. and the steady flow of gold from west to east continues.
pick the year fro the return of the bull. its in the cards. the settlements on comex @some point will all be paper.
then when india unleashes its buyers, coupled w/the chinese. the price gets squeezed.
all down the road
for now its skewering the bull
dharma
the 1st rule of a trader is survival. no matter what he thinks. its having the coin to fight another battle. patience lots and lots of patience
