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[nimblebear]

There's probably less than a 1% chance that the parties agree and avert a shutdown, but in reality, and just like the sequester, a shutdown would be great for the economy. It means government is spending less, and forced into figuring out how to agree to disagree and move on to the business of governing. Maybe we have a downdraft into mid October, but I Still think the market needs to go parabolic on something before it finally rolls over permanently to the downside for the next leg of the secular bear market. It just really needs to suck more people in, since so much easy money has been pumped by the Fed to get it to the point its at now. Less and less participation has occurred along the way by Joe Q public, and volume remains extremely thin. So the logic would be that it needs to such those people who have stayed on the sidelines for the better part of 4 years now, and its going to take a major move higher to convince them the worst appears to be over. You get past the shutdown and debt ceiling, and the rally into year end should be huge. At least huge enough to suck the last vestiges of hold outs, who 'swore' off stocks after the second bear market in less than a decade occurred in 2008. If they can actually delay Ovomitcare one more year, that should be really big for stocks.

[nimblebear]

Well, Day one of Shutdown = 62 points on the Dow and ~13 on the S&P. So far so good. Rally on Mr Market ! Off topic slightly, but what we really need to see is for the House to pass legislation, funding one department or program at a time. One bill a day to give the senate a chance to pass it, and fund government. Dare the senate to reject all the legitimate and clean bills they are sent ! Market would rally big, each and every day, if this occurs, and if you don't get why, write me a PM and I'll be happy to explain. Politics is definitely NOT rocket science. (criminals understand loaded guns, and one 'bullet' at a time is all it takes. ) But it can sometimes be great theater ! (like an old Clint Eastwood flick)